Contract Terms
Per multiple reports, RB Tony Pollard will sign a three-year, $24 million deal with the Tennessee Titans once the league year opens on Wednesday.
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Fantasy Football Impact
After spending the first four years of his career as a backup, Pollard stepped into the starting role in Dallas last season with disappointing results. As Ezekiel Elliott's backup, Pollard was highly efficient, averaging over five yards per carry and finding the endzone 12 times in 2022. As the starter, we saw his average dip to four yards per carry. He also scored only six touchdowns in 2023 despite 72 redzone touches, second only to Christian McCaffrey.
The Titans come into 2024 with a new coach and offensive scheme. Brian Callahan was the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati for the last five seasons before accepting the head coach spot in Tennessee. He will call the plays for the offense, so we can expect something similar to what we've seen from the Bengals the last few seasons. In a similar offense, Joe Mixon has finished as a top-10 fantasy back in each of the previous three seasons.
Pollard is the presumed starter in the Titans' new-look offense. This signing likely signals the end of Derrick Henry's time with the team, as the long-time Titan is also a free agent. However, unlike in Dallas last year, the Titans still have a complementary piece that should lessen the load on Pollard's shoulders. The team drafted Tyjae Spears in the 3rd Round last year, and he performed well as a rookie.
The presence of a second back should relieve pressure on Pollard. While his workload might lessen, a bump in efficiency should more than make up for the deficit. He scored 26 more fantasy points in 2022 than in his 2023 campaign despite 75 fewer touches. Footballguys writer Zareh Kantzabedian noted, "In 2022, 45% of Pollard’s 186 rush attempts accounted for runs of 15 or more yards. Since 2020, only Breece Hall has hit that mark. That same year, Pollard’s breakaway run rate accounted for 19% of his fantasy points. Higher efficiency for Pollard in a 'limited' role."
However, there is another difference worth noting between these teams. Our Jason Wood points out, "Pollard was behind Dallas' offensive line. Tennessee's line ranked 32nd last year, per PFF. Dallas ranked 8th last year and 12th in 2022." It will be interesting to see if Pollard can return to his 2022 form and beat his current RB23 spot in our early 2024 Draft Rankings.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
In Tennessee, we must temper high expectations for Spears. In this scheme, we've seen the 2nd back have some fantasy value, specifically Samaje Perine in 2022, but that only resulted in an RB34 finish. While not nearly as big as Henry, Pollard is slightly bigger than Spears. Expect Pollard to handle much of the short-yardage and redzone work, hopefully, more efficiently than in 2023. This could lead to a repeat of his 2023 usage for Spears. He did show skill as a pass catcher last season and could fill that role yet again in 2024. With two above-average pass-catching backs, we should also see an improvement in Will Levis' 59% completion rate from his rookie year.
In Dallas, it's a wait-and-see situation. They are sure to sign a free agent or two to replace Pollard, and you can check our Instant Reaction page when that time comes for our fantasy take. Last year's backup, Rico Dowdle, is also a free agent, and Deuce Vaughn is the only returning halfback who saw a carry last season. That leaves a whopping 341 carries and 89 targets vacated in Dallas. There is work to be done for the Cowboys.
Stock Watch
Risers
- Tony Pollard (slightly)
- Will Levis (maybe)
Fallers
- Tyjae Spears (flat compared to 2023, but unlikely to make the leap many expected)
Overview
Tony Pollard has signed a three-year deal with the Tennessee Titans. After a somewhat disappointing year as the feature back in Dallas, he should see more of a split with Tyjae Spears. Both backs have similar skill sets, but the ability to rest should increase both's efficiency and help Pollard return to the fantasy value we saw in 2022.
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