In many respects, Week 1 is the most maddening and frustrating slate of the season for fantasy managers, despite the fact that the stakes are minimal. After a long offseason, managers treat it like a playoff game—victory is the best thing ever. Defeat is the apocalypse.
It's also unpredictable. When what we think we know about players collides with reality, it's usually at calamitous speed. But the thing is, we don't know how "real" much of that reality is. With fewer and fewer starters playing in the preseason, offenses also often come out of the gate rusty—especially throwing the ball. And sure enough, there was a lengthy list of bigger-name quarterbacks and wide receivers who came out flat last week.
For most of those players, that Week 1 dud was much ado about nothing. Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Players like Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown are all but certainly going to be fine.
The moral of this story is that it's too early in the year to start freaking out. Obvious starters like Burrow and Brown need to be in lineups. And for the trickier lineup decisions?
That's where Close Calls comes in.
Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.
Week 2 Close Calls
Close Call: Drake Maye, New England (QB11) vs. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville (QB12)
The Case for Maye: Maye's Week 1 wasn't exactly what fantasy managers were hoping for—the second-year pro's 287 passing yards were a solid number, but he threw just a single touchdown pass and was a non-factor running the ball on the way to a QB18 fantasy finish. But this week in Miami should be a different story.
For starters, there's New England's opponent in Week 2—last week, the Miami Dolphins made Daniel Jones look like Dan Marino. Maye should make a bigger dent scrambling this week as well—his 421 rushing yards last season in 13 games ranked ninth among all NFL quarterbacks.
The Case for Lawrence: The Jacksonville Jaguars took it to the Carolina Panthers in Liam Coen's head-coaching debut, but Lawrence's first game in Coen's offense was a quiet one—178 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a fantasy finish just inside the top-25 at the position.
However, much like with Maye, bigger and better things should be in store for Lawrence in Week 2—because the Jaguars need there to be. Lawrence didn't have to do much last week against the Panthers, but Jacksonville's league-worst pass defense last year will have its hands full with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Verdict: Lawrence. This is all about that matchup with the Bengals. Cincinnati allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season, and the Over/Under of 48.5 on this time is tied for the second-highest of Week 2. Shootouts between bad defenses tend to lead to big quarterback stat lines,
Close Call: Tyrone Tracy Jr., NY Giants (RB28) vs. J.K. Dobbins, Denver (RB29)
The Case for Tracy: It's not especially easy to make a case for Tracy, who managed just 35 total yards in last week's loss to the Washington Commanders and averaged just 2.4 yards per carry. However, SI's Michael Fabiano sees some "sleeper" appeal with Tracy against a Dallas defense that looked bad against the run in the season opener.
"Tracy's stats left much to be desired last week, as he scored just 5.5 points in a loss to the Commanders," he said. "The good news is that he saw 50 snaps and led the team with 12 touches, while Cam Skattebo and Devin Singletary played secondary roles. Tracy Jr. should bounce back against the Cowboys, whose run defense has long been vulnerable."
The Case for Dobbins: It appears that all the fantasy managers who were gaga over rookie R.J. Harvey in Denver may have to wait a while for his ascension. Harver peeled off a 50-yard run against the Titans and averaged over 11 yards a carry, but he was out-touched by Dobbins 18-7.
Dobbins' per-carry average wasn't great—just 3.9 yards a pop. But he found the end zone on a 19-yard scamper and appears (for now at least) to be Denver's clear lead back. The Indianapolis Colts made short work of the hapless Dolphins last week, but the team was 24th in run defense a year ago, surrendering 131.8 yards per game.
The Verdict: Dobbins. The Dallas linebackers admittedly looked like hot garbage against the Eagles, but the Giants looked even worse offensively against the Commanders. The Denver offense is better than it looked last week. The Colts' defense isn't as good as it looked last week. You can't argue with math.
Close Call: Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland (WR31) vs. DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh (WR33)
The Case for Jeudy: Jeudy hasn't been shy about this week's matchup with the Ravens, whether it was telling reporters that the Baltimore secondary posed "no challenges," or saying that the 11.5-point spread in the game is "disrespectful."
Cedric Tillman overshadowed Jeudy in the season opener against the Cincinnati Bengals. But his five catches for 66 yards wasn't a bad stat line, and his eight targets were tied for second on the team. This week, he faces a Baltimore pass defense that Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills just roasted, and the Ravens' deficiencies against the pass are not a new problem.
The Case for Metcalf: Fantasy managers who started Metcalf in Week 1 were probably a little frustrated that Aaron Rodgers threw touchdown passes to just about everyone but him, but the 27-year-old's Pittsburgh debut was solid otherwise—a target share of 24.1 percent and over 20 yards per catch.
That performance came against a Jets defense that ranked inside the top-five against the pass last year, which features one of the NFL's best cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner. The Seattle Seahawks have a star corner of their own in Deveon Witherspoon, but he has yet to practice this week and is looking iffy to play.
The Verdict: Jeudy. To be clear, this analyst likes both of these plays in Week 2. But Jeudy is facing last year's 31st-ranked pass defense in a game where, frankly, the spread may not be big enough. The Browns are going to be playing from behind, which could mean a nice little pile of garbage time PPR points for Jeudy.
