Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to equip you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations, enabling you to identify the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much they're favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
The first thing that jumps out when looking at the slate overview is the massive team totals for Detroit and New England in matchups against the Giants and Bengals, respectively. Both defenses have been giving up chunk plays to opposing running backs, which sets the stage for a strong week from Jahmyr Gibbs, who earned the cover spot for a reason. If Rhamondre Stevenson returns, how New England splits work between him and TreVeyon Henderson will be one of the key decision points of the slate.
We also get two heavy favorites in Baltimore and Seattle, each carrying solid game totals. Derrick Henry has a path to another hundred-yard game for the Ravens in a matchup that fits his strengths. In Seattle, Ken Walker III drew strong praise for his performance last week and could see a bump in usage, though we've heard similar optimism before without a big change in role.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 12 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
New Orleans
The Saints' 32% Week 12 boost likely reflects optimism about quarterback Tyler Shough in his second start. In his debut, he completed 19 of 27 passes for 282 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Competent quarterback play raises the floor for this offense. Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson are in play in all formats this week.
Baltimore
The Ravens' offense struggled at Cleveland last week, with the wind and Myles Garrett both playing major roles. This sets up as a potential get-right spot for Lamar Jackson and the offense against a Jets defense that recently traded away its two best players.
New England
The Patriots have a dream matchup against an atrocious Bengals defense that has given up 27 or more points in nine straight games. Cincinnati's tackling has been a major issue, which could bode well for TreVeyon Henderson if he earns significant touches. Opposing running backs have produced a number of big gains on both runs and receptions out of the backfield.
Detroit
The Lions carry a healthy 30.25 team total against a Giants defense that allows 5.6 points per game above expectation to opposing running backs. With his strong involvement as a pass catcher and his explosiveness as a runner, Jahmyr Gibbs profiles as one of the best plays on the slate.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 12 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Indianapolis
Jonathan Taylor has been on a massive heater, but if there is ever a week to get away from him, this is it. Not only do the Colts have a -27% Week 12 boost, but the Chiefs allow 3.6 points below expectation to opposing running backs.
Seattle
This is one of the trickier spots on the slate. The Seahawks' 27-point team total is appealing, though it comes with a -8% boost. Tennessee does allow 3.7 points per game above expectation to opposing running backs, but that number has been trending down as the defense has shown major improvement against the run in recent weeks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is always in play.
FanDuel
Let's take a look at the top options on FanDuel according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").