Note: Our dev team is in the process of building a showdown optimizer. This has been one of our most featured asks over the last couple of seasons, and we’re hopeful that it will be coming before the end of the season. No specific release date yet, but an email will be sent out once this is live. Any questions, please email me at knotts@footballguys.com
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. Success in these contests doesn't come from blindly following median projections, but from creating leverage and building unique rosters. Fading the most popular plays can be risky, yet the biggest edges usually come from identifying the right low-rostered pivots and pairing them creatively with the slate's juggernauts.
With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5× salary and earns 1.5× points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash builds, median projections remain your best guide. For head-to-head contests, consider projections as well, but when two players have similar projections, side with the lower-rostered option.
Game Scripting and Roster Construction
The Seahawks at Commanders was likely a game where expectations may have been reversed pre-season, than where they are now. If you said that there was going to be a 5-3 team and a 3-5 team, most would have thought Washington would have been the 5-3 team, while Seattle would have been the 3-5 team, but here we are with the exact opposite. Injuries have completely derailed Washington’s season, and will play a significant part in this game. The good news for the Commanders is that Jayden Daniels will play this week after being a full participant in practice this week.
The game script is expecting a 25-23 victory for the Seahawks, which should have the potential to be a high-scoring shootout as both defenses have significant flaws. Seattle boasts one of the league’s best run defenses, which is extremely noteworthy, but their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired as they are allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game this season. Daniels’ mobility will also put Seattle to the test, as the only mobile quarterback that they’ve faced this season was Kyler Murray, who ran for 41 yards on just five attempts earlier this year.
For Washington, they’re also struggling against the pass, as they’re allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the fifth-most passing yards per game. They’ve allowed at least 250 passing yards in six of their last seven games, with only Justin Herbert failing to get to that mark in what was a weird game that Los Angeles was unable to get anything going against this defense. Washington has had poor performances against even some of the low-end quarterbacks like Geno Smith, Michael Penix, and Caleb Williams.
Injury Roundup
Seattle’s injuries are more of the depth pieces, which could make this interesting for Showdown. The big one is Cooper Kupp, who did not practice on Friday, after having a limited practice on Wednesday/Thursday. Meanwhile, depth receivers Jake Bobo and Dareke Young will both miss this week. This should open up opportunities for both Tory Horton and Cody White to see some time, and could be good value plays.
Edit: Cooper Kupp is not expected to play this week. While Ricky White would likely see some playing time as he was elevated from the practice squad, he’s not on this slate.
For Washington, the big injury is that Terry McLaurin remains out with his quad injury. This is looking more and more serious as the year progresses, and likely was something that he should have gone on IR for. There is one other injury to watch, which is the health of tight end John Bates. If he were to miss, that is about 50% of the snaps that are available for both Zach Ertz to see an increase and Ben Sinnot to pick up a majority of those extra snaps when the team goes with a two-tight-end set.
Captain Considerations
Seahawks Showdown Players
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (FLEX)
It’s a weird week when a quarterback is not in captain consideration. Of course, you always could play them there, but this week the recommendation is to look elsewhere. At $15,900, the price is just too high considering it will limit you from building a competitive lineup. If Darnold has a big game, it is likely going to be because of Jaxon Smith-Njigba or another cheap receiver like Cooper Kupp or Tory Horton stepping up. For Darnold, even in his 341-yard, 4-touchdown performance earlier this year, you would have wanted Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tory Horton, or A.J. Barner on a cost-per-dollar basis. With little rushing upside, it’s hard to make the case on a full PPR that the quarterback should be the captain unless you’re in a contest such as a head-to-head or 50/50 contest.