With three weeks of data in the books, we now have much more clarity on player roles, which offenses can be trusted, and which defenses we want to attack. This naturally shrinks the player pool compared to the first couple of weeks, when uncertainty made for more guesswork and a larger range of viable options. The Week 4 main slate features 11 games, most of which are projected to be low scoring. The few elite offenses on the slate come with caveats: Detroit faces a stingy Cleveland defense, Baltimore takes on Kansas City, and Buffalo is such a heavy favorite against New Orleans that game script may limit ceiling outcomes. Deciding whether to continue leaning on these elite units averaging 30-plus points per game, despite less-than-ideal spots, will be one of the key decisions in building tournament lineups.
At the same time, five offenses averaging 20 or fewer points through the first three weeks are projected for at least 23.0 points this week, each with implied totals at least 20% higher than their season averages. Because these teams have struggled early, their players remain priced down, creating intriguing tournament opportunities. Another wrinkle comes from the rookie running back class. After a slow start, Week 3 featured breakout performances from Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, and Cam Skattebo. The question now is whether those rookies can stay hot and whether others, like Ashton Jeanty or TreVeyon Henderson, are ready to follow suit. How we handle these discounted offenses and the upside of rookie backs will be central to success on the Week 4 FanDuel main slate.
We will start by looking at the matchups and implied team totals for each team. The rest of this article will go position by position, with recommendations split into two categories: Good Chalk and Others to Consider. You always want to be mindful of avoiding lineups that are too chalky, but it is especially important this week, which is why we focused so much on the big-picture dynamics of this slate Both hand-builders and those who use optimizers are likely to generate very similar lineups around the same dozen or so obvious plays. As you read on, think carefully about which chalk you cannot pass up, and just as importantly, how you will pivot off the chalk in certain spots to differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field.
Matchups and Slate Overview
One way to spot potential value is to compare each team's implied total from oddsmakers to how many points per game they average. As we enter Week 4, we will switch from comparing each team's implied team totals to their 2024 averages to using their 2025 season scoring average as our comparison. While three games is a small sample size, it still should give us an idea of which teams and players are expected to perform better this week than they have so far. The tables below highlight the best matchups (teams projected to score above last year's average) and the worst matchups (teams projected below it).
Best Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 4 expected to outperform versus their 2025 scoring average.
Here’s a lightly edited version with the five teams bolded and formatted as bullet points:
-
Houston: The Texans' offense has been a disaster through three weeks, but Vegas thinks this is the week things turn around. Despite scoring just 10 points last week, Nico Collins finally got going with eight catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. If Houston does score 20+ this week, it is easy to envision Collins having another big game.
-
Atlanta: The Falcons' offense was fine the first two weeks before struggling mightily in Week 3. Things were so bad that Atlanta has already started firing offensive assistants. Will the changes be enough to get things back on track? It is hard to trust any part of the passing game, including star receiver Drake London. But that is going to lead to a very good player at a reasonable price who will not be on many rosters.
-
Las Vegas: It has been a very quiet start to the season for young stars Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. Do things finally get on track for the two this week against a shaky Bears defense?
-
San Francisco: Christian McCaffrey is RB4 despite not scoring on any of his 52 carries. The 49ers have a healthy 25.0 implied team total. The touchdowns are going to come for McCaffrey, and this sets up as a week where he has a very solid chance of scoring multiple times, which would likely make him one of the most popular plays on the slate.
-
New England: The Panthers' defense has shown noticeable improvement compared to 2024, but still looks like a unit we want to target, especially with running backs. The uncertainty regarding how the Patriots will divvy up backfield touches means none of these backs is likely to be especially popular.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 4 expected to underperform versus their 2025 scoring average.
Injuries or difficult matchups potentially lower the ceiling for the top offenses on this slate:
-
Baltimore: The Ravens face an elite Chiefs defense and a Chiefs offense that often puts together long, time-consuming drives, which lowers the number of possessions in the game.
-
Washington: This is not the same offense without Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin.
-
Detroit: The Browns stymied strong Bengals and Packers offenses but struggled against the Ravens. Cleveland will have a major challenge against Detroit, but with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward now joined by star rookies Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger, this defense has the potential to transform into one of the NFL’s best.