It starts quietly. A drumbeat. Camp news trickles. A late-round rookie is playing with the ones. A viral social media clip of a wow play in shorts.
The wave rises. The drumbeat swells to the gates of Helm's Deep level volume. Deafening. Unavoidable.
Then the crest breaks. Brian Robinson Jr is traded to the 49ers.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt SZN is here.
The result is a never-ending cascade of hype. Races to find the first possible mention of Crosskey-Merritt mimic the land grab of 1889. Bestball exposures fill social media timelines.
It is intoxicating. For many playing in deep league formats, finding a breakout rookie can tilt the competitive balance. But one thing is missing:
Context.
Most are so busy celebrating their found money, they fail to provide context for a new valuation. The exuberant posts leave consumers wondering. ADP soars.
I’m guilty.
This has happened before. Darwin Thompson. Bryan Edwards. Sometimes it pays off, like Puka Nacua. It has a name: Dynasty Brain Rot.
When negative news trickles in, it’s often attacked. Chris Rodriguez Jr. playing ahead of Croskey-Merritt in the Commanders' full dress rehearsal pre-season game is just a preseason game. Croskey-Merritt being listed at 4th on the depth chart, depth charts are pointless, and other rookies were listed low.
Many will quietly back off.
Consumers are left holding the bag.
There is nothing wrong with being excited about finding a deep contributor. But instead of the competition to declare who was most right, the value in added context protects players just plugging in for their fantasy season.
I can do better.
Week 1 brings a full slate of 16 games, with the Eagles' win over the Cowboys in the bag; 15 games remain—time to touch them all.
Number Watch
-
1 touchdown - QB Josh Allen, Buffalo - Allen is tied with Thurman Thomas for the most touchdowns in Bills history. A score against the Ravens gives Allen the record. FanDuel and DraftKings have an anytime touchdown at +100.
-
3 passing touchdowns - QB Jared Goff, Detroit - Goff would move into a tie with Bobby Layne for the second most passing touchdowns in Lions franchise history with three touchdown passes against the Packers.
-
4 passing touchdowns - QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Stafford is 10th in career passing touchdowns, four away from catching Matt Ryan. The Rams face the Texans, who ranked sixth in fewest passing yards in 2024. 4 receptions - TE Evan Engram, Denver - Engram can become the 20th tight end to hit 500 career receptions, needing four catches against the Titans. Engram’s 41 career receptions against the Titans only trail 56 against Dallas for his most against a team. ESPN and Caesars have 3.5 receptions at -150.
-
5 passing touchdowns - QB Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh - Rodgers is 5th in career touchdowns at 503. Brett Favre is 4th with 508. Rodgers has five career games with five touchdowns, though none since 2019. This is likely a Week 2 number. The Jets' defense allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game in 2024.
-
81 yards - WR DeAndre Hopkins, Baltimore - Hopkins can move into the Top 20 on the career receiving yardage list with 81 yards against Buffalo. Hopkins could hit 1,000 career receptions, though the 16 receptions needed would break the franchise record of 13 by Steve Smith and Priest Holmes. FanDuel has Hopkins’ line at 15.5 yards; this is likely to be a multi-week watch.
-
191 passing yards - Stafford - Stafford can become the tenth quarterback in NFL history to pass the 60,000-yard mark, needing 191 yards on Sunday. Bet365 has Stafford at 235.5 yards for -110.
-
5 losses - Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons have lost five consecutive Opening Day games. The Browns have the record, losing 10 straight from 2005 to 2014.
-
6 wins - New Orleans Saints - The Saints hold the current active Opening Day win streak, winning their last six. The NFL record is 17 by the Dallas Cowboys between 1965 to 1981.
Revenge!
We are back! No, Immaculate Grid has not sponsored us yet, but hope remains. Who is playing for a little extra this week?