Drake Maye: Rushing Toward a Sophomore Breakout

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Drake Maye had a rocky debut season for a bad team. He flashed his potential, particularly his rushing upside, over 12 starts but generally delivered subpar results for fantasy managers. Maye finished as the overall QB21, averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game in standard scoring formats. While he was a serviceable QB2 in Superflex leagues, he had minimal value in traditional one-quarterback formats.

Some of Maye's struggles were typical growing pains of a rookie, but his coaching staff and supporting cast presented significant obstacles. While fellow rookies Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix helped lead their teams to playoff berths, Maye piloted a sputtering offense that nearly gifted New England the first overall pick.

Will 2025 be different? There are reasons for optimism. A revamped coaching staff, a veteran offensive coordinator, upgrades along the offensive line and in the wide receiver corps, plus dynamic rookie playmakers, all give Maye a chance to make a significant leap. He has the tools to deliver low-end QB1 production, making him relevant in one-quarterback leagues and a potential difference-maker in Superflex and dynasty formats.

A Quintessential Robo-QB Walks in a Rebuild

Maye started 26 games at North Carolina, completing 611 of 942 passes for 7,929 yards with 62 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Though a prototypical pocket passer, he was also dangerous as a runner, amassing 1,147 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on 296 carries as a starter. He entered the NFL at 21 years old, the second youngest of the six first-round quarterbacks in his draft class.

"He is the quintessential Robo-QB," wrote my colleague Matt Waldman in his 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, "a 'safe' technically sound athlete that looks like a prospect who rolled off an assembly line that checks the easy-to-define boxes"—size, arm strength, production, and Power Five pedigree. But Waldman also noted flaws in Maye's pocket management, decision-making, coverage reads, and tendency to avoid easy throws. Those flaws could be ironed out at the pro level, but landing with a rebuilding franchise put his development on a steeper curve.

The Patriots drafted Maye third overall in 2024, desperate for their next franchise quarterback after failing to develop 2021 first-rounder Mac Jones. Jones led New England to a playoff berth as a rookie but regressed over the next two years, ultimately being benched four times during a 4-13 campaign in which the Patriots averaged fewer than 14 points per game. Bailey Zappe finished that season as the starter, but neither quarterback returned in 2024.

The housecleaning extended to legendary head coach Bill Belichick, replaced by longtime linebackers coach Jerod Mayo in his first head coaching role. The Patriots signed veteran Jacoby Brissett as a stopgap starter, intending for Maye to sit and learn. That plan lasted five weeks.

A Predictably Rough Rookie Season

Maye debuted in Week 6 against Houston, a 41-21 loss. His first three series produced a three-and-out, an interception, and a sack. He steadied himself with a 40-yard touchdown before halftime and finished with 243 passing yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and four sacks.

As Waldman noted, "Bad teams rarely rebuild fast enough to provide a quarterback with Maye's issues the essential building blocks for him to experience only the expected bumps along his road of development." Maye had the upside but lacked reliable weapons.

K.J. Osborn, signed to add veteran stability, played more snaps than any Patriots receiver through four weeks but barely factored in the passing game before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. He caught just two passes for 26 yards and a touchdown from Maye. Kendrick Bourne, entering his fourth year in New England, saw only 38 targets. Tyquan Thornton was effectively benched once Maye took over and was released before season's end. The remaining wideouts—second-year players DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte, plus rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker—were raw and inconsistent.

Hunter Henry, not a wideout, was Maye's top target with 98 looks. Douglas followed with 88, then Boutte (68), Austin Hooper (59), Rhamondre Stevenson (41), Bourne (38), and Polk (33). The rest of the receiving corps combined for just 30 targets, barely outpacing running back Antonio Gibson.

The offensive line compounded the problem. According to Fantasy Points Data, Maye's average time to pressure (2.37 seconds) ranked 21st of 22 quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks. He was pressured on nearly 40 percent of his dropbacks, the highest rate in that group, and his pressure rate was 13 percent over expectation, almost double the next-worst mark. He scrambled once every 9.3 dropbacks, second only to Jayden Daniels.

Even if the blocking had improved, the offensive design didn't suit his strengths. Jerod Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt used Maye strictly as a pocket passer, eliminating zone-read concepts he ran effectively at UNC. After Maye sustained a concussion in Week 8, Van Pelt openly admitted to minimizing his rushing role to "keep him out of harm's way," drawing criticism when the Patriots opted for consecutive stuffed handoffs over a quarterback sneak in short yardage.

Maye's Rushing Upside

Despite conservative usage, Maye ran for 421 yards—ninth among quarterbacks—while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, the best rate by any quarterback (minimum 30 rushes) since Michael Vick in 2000.

Top 10 Rushing Quarterbacks of 2024

Fantasy Points Data charted 45 of Maye's 54 carries as scrambles, accounting for 97 percent of his rushing yardage. Only one non-scramble, a 13-yard fourth-down keeper against Buffalo, was truly designed. The rest were kneel-downs, sneaks, or botched snaps.

Since 2000, 14 rookie quarterbacks have rushed for 400+ yards; Maye was one of four to do so in 2024, alongside Daniels, Nix, and Caleb Williams. Historically, half of those passers increased their rushing totals in Year 2 via more attempts, though many became less efficient. Maye's 7.8 yards per carry is unlikely to hold, but his volume should climb, especially if Josh McDaniels integrates designed runs into the offense.

Rookie QBs With 400 Rushing Yards Since 2000

The table is sorted by yards per attempt for the rookie season, placing Maye on top with his 7.8 yards per rushing attempt. The quarterbacks with three of the next four highest yards per attempt lost more than 1.5 yards per attempt in their second seasons. The other, Robert Griffin III, added 0.62 yards per attempt, but his rushing volume fell by nearly half.

While the sample size is exceedingly small, the data suggest Maye will be less efficient in 2025. If that's the case, then the only way he increases his rushing yards is to increase his attempts. The consensus projection between Bob Henry and Jason Wood produces that exact combination: 26 more rushes, 47 more yards, and nearly two fewer yards per carry. I expect Maye's rushing attempts will exceed the projection as I anticipate more designed runs and a similar number of scrambles as in 2024. 

All of this assumes that the Patriots' offseason moves, from coaching changes through the draft to free agency, create the environment in which Drake Maye can succeed.

Rebuilding from the Inside Out