Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
Pittsburgh's rushing offense remains an effective, yet low-volume, unit. Jaylen Warren is averaging 4.2 yards per carry on the season, but has just three games above 15 carries, with his season high being 18 in a 21-14 victory against New England. Kaleb Johnson does not have a role in this offense at the moment, as he has not had more than five snaps in a game since Week 6. Meanwhile, Kenneth Gainwell continues to see 40-50% of the snaps, but does not have more than five carries in his last four games as he's primarily used as a receiver/pass-blocker for Aaron Rodgers. The good news for Warren is that facing the Bengals should open opportunities for a big day, even with low volume. In their first meeting, Warren had 127 yards on 16 carries as he was one of the offensive stars despite the losing effort. Expect Pittsburgh to look at this Bengals defense and once again try to have success on the ground.
The big question for Cincinnati is how they will respond after the bye week. Defensively, they've been a disaster this season, and Week 9 was no different as Cincinnati allowed 283 rushing yards to Chicago, with Kyle Monangai leading the way with 176 yards on 26 carries. At 3-6, the chances of making the playoffs have largely evaporated with their upcoming schedule, which includes facing New England, Baltimore twice, and Buffalo. The Bengals have relied heavily on the draft to rebuild this defense, and it just hasn't worked. 2025 first-round pick Shemar Stewart has been one of the worst defensive linemen in the NFL, while the team has turned to two rookie linebackers in Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight Jr., both of whom have struggled as two of the worst starting linebackers in football. This defense is essentially what would happen if a college team were to try to play against an NFL team. There is no identity, no leadership, and a college defensive coordinator, Al Golden, who is trying to call plays in the NFL for the first time. Cincinnati this season is allowing 141 rushing yards per game, which is 19 more than the next closest team. Complicating matters is that it seems unlikely that Trey Hendrickson will play as of Wednesday. He's still day-to-day, but has admitted that he's not where he needs to be physically, as he did not practice on Wednesday.
Green Bay at NY Giants
Green Bay seems a bit lost at the moment offensively, so this is a perfect get-right game against the Giants. Over the last two weeks, they've averaged just 10 points per game against Carolina and Philadelphia. Many of the issues have been with the passing game, as Josh Jacobs continues to be extremely predictable. Most weeks, Jacobs is going to end the game somewhere between 65 and 90 yards and have a high probability of scoring a touchdown. He's scored a touchdown in every game except one this season, as he's now scored in 18 of his last 19 games. He hasn't shown much of a burst this season, as he hasn't had a run longer than 20 yards, but he's consistently moving forward, utilizing his 225-pound frame to gain yardage. Jacobs has very little competition behind him that could threaten him, as despite Emanuel Wilson averaging 25% of snaps, he had just one carry for two yards last week, while Chris Brooks is largely a non-factor despite being on the field for around 10% of snaps.
While the Giants have improved since they allowed 256 rushing yards to Philadelphia running backs in Week 8, this is still very much a flawed defense, as they've allowed 106 yards to Christian McCaffrey and 80 yards to D'Andre Swift. Now, complicating matters is that the team has moved on from Brian Daboll. At the linebacker position, injuries have absolutely decimated this unit. The latest injury is that Darius Muasau was put on IR this week, and the team may be without Bobby Okereke, as he did not practice on Wednesday. This will force Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, who has primarily played special teams throughout his career, into a starting role. If Okereke misses, it gets a bit shaky, as it would likely be 32-year-old Neville Hewitt, who is another special teams player, who has just nine tackles all season for one of the league's worst run defenses. On the defensive line, Dexter Lawrence II can only do so much, but while the team won't be as bad as that Philadelphia performance, we can expect a weekly total from running backs likely approaching the 100-yard mark, which is what we've seen the last two weeks.
Houston at Tennessee
It appears that rookie Jo'Quavious (Woody) Marks is finally separating himself from Nick Chubb. Marks had 80% of the snaps last week, compared to Chubb's 13% sending a clear message after the game that this is a 1-2 punch and that while Chubb ran hard when given the opportunity, this, at least for the time being, seems to be Marks' backfield. Marks had a season-high 14 carries, and with C.J. Stroud looking like he will miss once again, the Texans need a dynamic player behind this struggling offensive line. While the tackles continue to be a problem, the Texans should get right guard Ed Ingram back this week, which is a significant improvement for Houston, as they can then move Juice Scruggs back to left guard. Despite this offensive line ranking 31st by Footballguys Matt Bitonti, Marks has been able to top 4.5 yards per carry in two of his last three games, including last week against a good Jaguars run defense.
Coming off a bye, we have to wonder how Tennessee will respond. While only Jonathan Taylor has run for over 100 yards against Tennessee (he's done it twice), this is a defense that gives up consistent production to just about every defense that they've faced this season. Nine running backs have run for at least 60 yards against the Titans, while they've allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. The Titans' offense has not helped matters, as they're consistently putting their defense in negative game scripts, which has played a significant part in the Titans allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game. While T'Vondre Sweat's return in Week 7 has helped this defense, the 370-pound defensive tackle is not able to single-handedly improve this team by himself. The safeties and linebackers are capable run-stoppers, but have been forced to give an extra emphasis to stopping the pass, as Jalyn Armour-Davis, Darrell Baker Jr., and rookie Marcus Harris may be the worst secondary in the NFL, so the safeties have to consistently shade over to provide additional pass coverage. The Titans appear they will be without Jeffery Simmons once again this week, which is a critical loss along the defensive line. The former All-Pro is their best defensive player and has not played since Week 7. He did not practice on Wednesday. Not practicing the Wednesday after a bye week is normally not a great sign that he will be able to go this week.
Carolina at Atlanta