Underdog Pick Em: Week 7

Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.

The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for. All else being equal, I'll try to focus on prime-time games and the most entertaining spots on the schedule. However, I won't force plays just to have action on every night game.

How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

Tracking Last Week

I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week. 

• Last Week (3-2), -$40
• Season (19-20), -$208

For the second-straight week, hit over half of the individual props but failed to hit either Pick Em. Came up four yards short of a big 10X that would have put me in the black for the year. Alas, those are the breaks.

I went with receiving overs for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (78.5) and Travis Hunter (33.5). Smith-Njigba more than doubled his prop with 162 yards, but Hunter turned his seven targets into just 15 receiving yards. 

I came up just short on hitting a bit 10X on the Bengals-Packers game. Had Josh Jacobs for an anytime touchdown. He scored twice. Had the over on Ja'Marr Chase receiving yards (63.5). He went for 94. But then came up just short on Tucker Kraft receiving yards (46.5). He had 43. 

Pick Em/Champions Pick 1

Rashee Rice

• This is an intriguing prop because it requires some projection, similar to Week 1, as this marks Rice's season debut.

• We haven't seen him on the field in over a year, but when we last did, he was extremely productive, averaging 8.0 catches for 96.0 yards and scoring two touchdowns over three games.

• That pace equated to 136 receptions, 1,632 yards, and 11 touchdowns over a full season, and he topped 70+ yards in six of his last seven regular-season games.

before Rashee Rice went down last season, he held a 31.2% Target Rate and 3.16 Yards per Route Run

the only Wide Receivers this season with a 30%+ Target Rate and 3.00+ YPRR

- Puka Nacua
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Drake London

he's back and elite production is coming pic.twitter.com/W2xFzt9Vmj

— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) October 16, 2025

• Reports indicate he'll be "full bore" right away, with his normal target share. He's been fully healthy since the summer and stayed in rhythm through offseason and personal training.

More about the return of Chiefs WR Rashee Rice as well as a look ahead to Week 7 with @tyschmit:

🎧 https://t.co/oKslx4bD16 pic.twitter.com/vnuaKduNmk

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 16, 2025

• The Chiefs' offense already ranks 8th in passing yards and has scored 28+ points in three straight games. Rice's return could push it to another level, complementing Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown.

• The spacing created by Worthy and Brown should open up the middle of the field for Rice to thrive.

• The Raiders have allowed 971 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers through six weeks (7th-most in the NFL).

• Patrick Mahomes II threw 46 passes the last time he faced Las Vegas, his most in any game over the past three seasons.

Jakobi Meyers

• Has gone three straight weeks with fewer than 40 receiving yards.

• Trade rumors and offseason tension may be affecting his focus and role. Meyers briefly held out in the preseason seeking a raise or extension, which the Raiders declined.

• The team's selection of Jack Bech, who has a similar skill set, adds to the sense that this could be a lame-duck season for Meyers.

• Missed multiple practices this week, officially due to a knee injury, though some reports suggest it could be precautionary ahead of a potential trade.

Raiders fans are connecting the dots after Jakobi Meyers' second missed practice.https://t.co/hyTJBNHhhj

— Just Blog Baby (@JustBlogBaby) October 16, 2025

• The Chiefs' defense has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season.

Pick Em/Champions Pick 2