Underdog Pick Em: Week 9

Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.

The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for. All else being equal, I'll try to focus on prime-time games and the most entertaining spots on the schedule. However, I won't force plays just to have action on every night game.

How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

Tracking Last Week

I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week. 

• Last Week (4-1), + $97
• Season (23-23), - $131

We hit a big 6.1X win on Tee Higgins and Mason Taylor anytime touchdowns. The Bengals-Jets game was every bit the shootout we expected, and the Bengals continue to get roasted by opposing tight ends. Tee Higgins has now scored a touchdown in 9 of the last 10 games he's played when the Bengals scored 20+ points.

We came up one leg short on our star RB touchdown parlay. Jonathan Taylor scored three against Tennessee (for the third straight time), Josh Jacobs scored again (now 14 of his last 15 games), but Bijan Robinson had a surprisingly rough day overall against the Dolphins and was vultured by Tyler Allgeier. 

Week 9 Picks

Pick 1 - Bye Week Adjustments

One of the hidden edges in player props comes from listening closely to coaching press conferences to spot hints about which players might be featured more. This is especially valuable for teams coming off a bye week. With extra time to self-scout and adjust the game plan, coaches often make a point to get certain players more involved. This week's first prop focuses on one player who fits that profile and another who should benefit from a change at quarterback.

Jameson Williams

• Williams is not coming off a big game. He was held without a catch in Week 7 and saw just two targets despite running routes on 97% of Detroit's passing plays. After signing a three-year, $80 million deal this offseason, he remains a crucial piece of the Lions offense, and the team knows it needs to get him going to stay in the Super Bowl hunt.

• The coaching staff is aware of the issue. Williams has continued to play hard and block well but has expressed frustration about his lack of involvement.

#Lions WR coach/Asst HC Scottie Montgomery on Jameson Williams: "(There is) no middle ground. Only a ceiling. We gotta get to the ceiling."

Discussed that they're working on getting him more opportunities. Said they can put him in better positions.

— Kory Woods, MSW (@KoryEWoods) October 28, 2025

• During the bye week, Williams met with first-year offensive coordinator John Morton, who admitted he's underutilized the 24-year-old and took full responsibility for the lack of production following Williams' breakout 2024 season.

#Lions OC John Morton on Jameson Williams:

"I've failed him — that's what I told him… I'm like, listen, man, I'm gonna do a better job." pic.twitter.com/boDUzAa8V0

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 31, 2025

• This feels like a spot where Detroit intentionally gets Williams involved right away—possibly within the first few plays. While I like his full-game overs, my favorite prop is over 0.5 first-quarter receptions, anticipating a scripted early touch.

Rashid Shaheed

• Shaheed has topped 41.5 receiving yards in 9 of 15 games since the start of the 2024 season.

• When Tyler Shough entered last week's game late in the third quarter, he immediately looked Shaheed's way. Over the final 19 minutes, Shough targeted him eight times, resulting in six catches for 45 yards.

• Shaheed's overall usage has been trending up—he's been targeted 21 times over the last two weeks.

• The Saints could look to feature him this week to boost his trade value, as reports suggest he could be available ahead of next Tuesday's deadline.

Rashid Shaheed deserves to play for a contender man…

SHREDS Benjamin Morrison deep but Shough misses him pic.twitter.com/8XFhbebfcm

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 26, 2025

• The Rams give up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and just allowed 101 yards to Travis Hunter, a player with a similar skill set to Shaheed.

Pick 2 - Colts/Steelers