Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (2-2), - $40
- Season (30-24), - $34
Our long streak of winning weeks came crashing to an end last week. Wan'Dale Robinson failed to top 58.5 receiving yards, so it didn't matter that we would have been refunded the second half of the Pick Em due to Josh Jacobs leaving in the first half.
We came close to hitting our big 7X. Aaron Jones Sr. (11.5) quickly went over his carries total, and George Kittle (53.5) comfortably topped his receiving yardage over. However, Woody Marks (2.5) came up short of his receptions over/under. I should have given more credence to how stingy the Titans have been in allowing receiving production to opposing backs. Lesson learned.
Week 12 Pick #1
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McMillan has consistently seen strong volume, with at least eight targets in 8 of his 11 games, and he is averaging 68 receiving yards per game.
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He had a breakout performance last week with 8 catches for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 targets in an overtime win over the Falcons. This could be the start of a true late-season surge, something we often see from top rookie receivers once they fully hit their stride. Last season, Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Ladd McConkey were among the rookies who exploded down the stretch.
49ers HC Kyle Shanahan on Panthers rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan: "I think he's a stud. He's going to be one of the best receivers in this league sooner than later. He's got all the skill sets to do it and I think he's just getting started."
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 20, 2025
Asked if he caught his eye in the… pic.twitter.com/xiQ5wjRaQ7
- McMillan not only saw a career high in targets last week, but a change in usage with increased slot snaps and deployment in a wider variety of different alignments to make it harder for opposing defenses to use cloud coverages to take him away.
Tetairoa McMillan saw a season high in slot usage in Week 11
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 17, 2025
Dave Canales explained why, and how it gives the rookie WR more advantageous looks
(question from @josephperson) https://t.co/rzZhCGVNyw pic.twitter.com/ri2vjudEdB
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The 49ers have given up the third-most receiving yards in the league to opposing wide receivers, with 1,817 allowed. They just surrendered 185 yards to Michael Wilson, a receiver with a similar profile to McMillan.
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For the third straight week, Kittle's receiving over is a recommended play. He has hit for us two weeks in a ro. While his props have finally started to rise, they still feel too low for his current role.
- Kittle averaged 88.4 receiving yards per game over a nine-game stretch in the second half of the 2024 season. He seems to be on a similar trajectory in 2025 now that Brock Purdy is also back healthy, and the receiving yardage props are not reflecting that.
George Kittle was a Hall of Fame level player before Brock Purdy, but he's ascended to another tier since.
— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) November 18, 2025
In that time span, here are Kittle's ranks among TEs:
Touchdowns: #1 (30)
Yards per catch: #1 (13.7)
Yards per route run: #1 (2.17)
Receiving Yards: #2 (3,142)
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After early-season injuries slowed him down, he now has 15 catches for 151 yards and 3 touchdowns over the last two weeks.
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He has looked incredible on film over the last three weeks, catching 21 straight targets. He's caught 27 of 30 targets on the season, with two of the three incompletions on the season coming in his first game back after an extended absence.
George Kittle currently has a 90% catch rate which is best in the NFL for all tight ends and receivers with 25 targets or more!
— John Chapman (@JL_Chapman) November 18, 2025
27 receptions on 30 targets is insane considering he is also 7/7 on contested catches!#49ers #FTTB pic.twitter.com/CEqFnMThFZ
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The 49ers' defense is extremely banged up and has allowed over 400 total yards in three of the last four games, which forces the offense to stay aggressive through the air. Opponents are averaging 28.5 points per game over that stretch. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends with 718.