Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (2-2), - $40
- Season (32-26), - $74
Week 12 was frustrating, with splits on both props. George Kittle came through for us for the third straight week, going over his receiving yardage prop (57.5) with 78 yards. Unfortunately, the normally sure-handed Tetairoa McMillan came up short of his yardage prop (62.5) with 35 yards, catching just two of seven targets. Similarly, Hunter Henry crushed his receiving yardage prop (40.5) with 115 yards, but despite having a strong game, Ken Walker III came up short on his rushing attempts prop (14.5) in a weird game in which the Seahawks ran only 47 plays on offense. Seattle lost the time of possession battle by 15 minutes to the Titans despite dominating the game.
Week 13 Pick #1
The theme of the week is betting on a late-season surge from the talented 2025 rookie running back class. Scouts widely viewed this group as the best in several years, and history tells us rookie backs often start slow before their usage and production ramp up after the bye week and into the closing stretch of the regular season. This is the time of year when breakout runs begin.
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Harvey managed just 30 yards on 11 carries in his Week 11 debut as Denver's lead back, but the usage was highly encouraging. His playing time jumped from just under 30% of the snaps to 61.3%.
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The Broncos coaching staff likely used the Week 12 bye to tweak the rushing offense to fit his strengths better. With J.K. Dobbins out long term, Denver's season may hinge on Harvey emerging as a reliable playmaker.
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His mediocre output in Week 11 came against a stout Chiefs run defense, allowing just 76 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. This week, he faces a Washington defense giving up 113.2 rushing yards per game to running backs. As heavy road favorites, Denver could lean heavily on the run if the game follows script.
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Unlike Harvey, Henderson has already taken advantage of an injury to the veteran ahead of him and cemented himself as a key piece of the Patriots' offense. Even with Rhamondre Stevenson back in Week 12, Henderson still led the backfield with 65% of the snaps.
TreVeyon Henderson started every drive in Rhamondre Stevenson's first game back from turf toe
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 25, 2025
via @reinhardNFL pic.twitter.com/wdCThYhBtf
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Henderson has topped 15 receiving yards in six of the eight games (75%) in which he played at least 31% of the snaps. When he's on the field, he gets opportunities in the passing game.
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The Giants allow 32.9 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.
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Over the past five games, Jeanty averaged just 12.2 carries per game. This lack of usage was a significant factor in the firing of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Pete Carroll clearly wants to get his rookie star more involved, which led to the switch to new coordinator Greg Olson, who will prioritize Jeanty's touches.
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Carroll wants to “recommit to the run game," and Jeanty has expressed excitement about the renewed focus on building the offense around him.
Raiders new offensive playcaller, Greg Olson spoke to the media today about becoming a multidimensional team.
— Madyson Marie (@madysonmmarie) November 27, 2025
That includes an emphasis on getting the ball into the hands of Ashton Jeanty, whether that's through passing or running the ball. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/rb5Qg70SxC
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The Chargers allow 92.3 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Over his last four games, Jeanty has handled 93% of the Raiders' backfield carries.
