FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 12

We have an 11-game main slate that’s surprisingly drama-free. Even in mid-November, the weather isn’t a real factor in any of the matchups. We also have more clarity on injuries than we usually do by Saturday morning. The one situation still hanging is Josh Jacobs in Green Bay. He’s truly 50-50. If he sits, Emanuel Wilson becomes one of the better plays on the slate.

Most of the other key spots are settled. Joe Burrow is out again, so Joe Flacco will make his sixth straight start. Jaxson Dart will miss another game with a concussion, and Jameis Winston will fill in. Marvin Harrison Jr. remains out after his appendix removal, putting Michael Wilson in another prime spot. Both Jacksonville backs look good to go after getting dinged up last week. Dillon Gabriel is out with a concussion, which means Shedeur Sanders will make his first NFL start.

We will first look at the matchups from both a team and positional angle, focusing on the backfield outlooks and the passing games with the best chances to produce tournament-winning scores. Then we will go position by position, highlighting the top plays. Each section will include Good Chalk, which covers the strong plays worth using even at high ownership, and Low-Owned Targets, which highlight players who can separate your lineup from the field.

Positional Defense and Matchups Overview

My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest matchups, where teams are expected to score below their 2025 average.

It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense-versus-position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.

Best Matchups

Here are the teams on the Week 12 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.

New Orleans
The Saints' team total has continued to rise throughout the week. Much of the optimism likely centers on the early play of rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. In his first start, he completed 19 of 27 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns. Competent quarterback play raises the floor of this offense, and the early signs have been positive for Shough. New Orleans in Week 12 is a good example of why it helps to look at team totals in the context of season averages. It is also fair to wonder whether Atlanta is in a spot where things start to come apart. Last week’s matchup with Carolina felt like a must-win game. Instead, Atlanta lost and fell to 3-7, three games out of first place with their quarterback out for the season and their top wide receiver set to miss multiple weeks. This could be a team that packs it in. All of this makes the Saints’ top weapons strong targets.

Baltimore
Baltimore checks all of the boxes this week for a team we want to target in GPPs. The Ravens' offense struggled at Cleveland last week, though the wind and Myles Garrett were both significant factors. This sets up as a get-right spot for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson against a Jets defense that recently traded away its two best players. Last week, Josh Allen went a bit overlooked because he was coming off a run of middling games, and he was expensive. He reminded us that he is one of the few quarterbacks who can erupt for a huge week at any time. Jackson is another in that category. Derrick Henry fits the same mold.

New England
The Patriots have a dream matchup against an atrocious Bengals defense that has given up 27 or more points in nine straight games. Cincinnati’s tackling has been a major issue, which could bode well for TreVeyon Henderson if he earns significant touches even with Rhamondre Stevenson back. We have seen several big plays for opposing running backs on both runs and catches out of the backfield. Drake Maye has never had a 300-yard passing game in his career, and it feels like only a matter of time until that happens. This could be the week. The Bengals struggle almost as much against the pass as they do against the run. Tight ends have been especially successful against this defense, which has dealt with poor play from both the linebacker and safety groups.

Detroit
The Lions have a healthy 30.25 team total against a Giants defense that allows 5.6 points per game above expectation to opposing running backs. Given his heavy involvement as a pass catcher and his explosiveness as a runner, Jahmyr Gibbs profiles as one of the best plays on the slate. This is also a strong matchup for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams in the passing game. With Sam LaPorta out for the season due to a back injury, the target tree has narrowed for Goff, which raises the floor for both St. Brown and Williams.

Kansas City
This is an interesting spot for the Chiefs. The numbers look great on paper. Kansas City has a 27-point team total, which is above its season average. Indianapolis has allowed positive points per game above expectation across the board in the passing game, and the matchup looks promising for Patrick Mahomes II, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce. However, Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has a long track record of giving Mahomes and Andy Reid trouble with his diverse coverage schemes. While I like the Chiefs this week, this is a spot where they may end up a bit too popular. If the roster projections hold, I want exposure to Mahomes, Kelce, and Rice, but I will also look to be slightly under the field because I have some concerns about whether this matchup is quite as strong as the raw numbers suggest.

Worst Matchups

Here are the teams on the Week 12 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.

Indianapolis
Jonathan Taylor has been on a massive heater and is terrifying to fade, but if there is ever a week to step away, this is it. Not only do the Colts have a -27 percent Week 12 boost, but the Chiefs give up 3.6 points below expectation to opposing running backs. Anytime two of the league’s best offenses face off, you want some GPP exposure because the game environment has clear upside. The flip side is that there is a real chance this matchup disappoints from a fantasy standpoint. Both defensive schemes are built to force opponents into long, methodical drives and limit big plays, which reduces the overall number of possessions. That can be a problem in high-stakes matchups like this.

Seattle
This is one of the tougher spots to parse on the slate. The Seahawks have an appealing 27-point team total, but it is 8 percent below their season average. Tennessee does allow 3.7 points per game above expectation to opposing running backs, but that number has been trending down as the defense has improved against the run in recent weeks. The real question is how Seattle approaches the game in terms of run-pass split. Sam Darnold struggled badly last week, and if the Seahawks want to get him back on track, they could come out throwing. On the other hand, as 13-point favorites, this profiles as a game where they could play it safe and lean on the rushing attack led by Ken Walker III.

Quarterback

This is a tough week at quarterback because the pricing funnels you toward a small group of passers at the upper end of the salary range. When Patrick Mahomes II is only four hundred dollars more than Caleb Williams and six hundred more than Joe Flacco, and in a better spot than both, it is hard to justify taking on the extra risk to save a small amount of salary. The problem is that the entire field is going to see it the same way. Mahomes and Drake Maye are both projected for close to twenty percent ownership, and it would not be a surprise if they come in even higher in the big FanDuel tournaments. Both are strong options, but you are not gaining much leverage by playing a quarterback who is that popular.

The worthwhile pivots are limited because most other quarterbacks are either priced up in the same range despite lower projections or lack the upside to realistically match Mahomes and Maye in these matchups at similar pricing. The one clear exception is Lamar Jackson, who is priced in the same price range yet projected for about half the ownership. He is my favorite overall quarterback play on the slate. Jared Goff at $8,000 is also viable, and Jacoby Brissett at $7,300 is another player I want to be overweight on.

This is one of those weeks where I wish there was a sub-$7K quarterback I felt confident about, but there is not. We probably need around twenty-five points from our quarterback to win a GPP this week, especially with Mahomes, Maye, and Jackson all underpriced in the $8,100 to $8,500 range. It does not make much sense to roll the dice on cheaper options with limited ceilings. I am more likely to play the chalk at quarterback this week and get different at other positions.

Lamar Jackson
This is a spot where Jackson could go slightly under-owned. The defense-versus-position numbers might throw some people off because the Jets’ season-long metrics do not reflect their current talent level. They traded away their two best defenders, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, and the drop-off has been noticeable. Without Gardner, the Jets have struggled even more in coverage, and Williams’ absence removed an interior pass-rush threat that offenses had to worry about. Some quarterbacks need a shootout environment to hit a ceiling, but that has not always been the case with Jackson. He is capable of big fantasy performances even in lopsided wins. From a narrative angle, this feels like a spot where Baltimore’s offense wants to get back on track and re-establish itself before tougher matchups in the coming weeks. The Ravens are healthier on offense than they have been all season, and with the Jets lacking a pass rush, this could be a game where Jackson throws four or more touchdowns.

Jacoby Brissett
Brissett has topped 19 FanDuel points in each of his five starts and just threw for 452 yards last week. The Jaguars are strong against the run but vulnerable against the pass, which sets up another spot where the Cardinals could lean on Brissett’s arm (he has had 44+ attempts in three of his five starts). His price has risen a bit, which is not ideal, but it may also help keep his ownership lower than it would otherwise be. As noted in the intro, the top quarterbacks being priced below eight thousand dollars will naturally suppress roster percentages for players like Brissett in the mid-seven-thousand range.

Running Back

This is a fun week at running back because we have a large number of viable options and no true slam-dunk plays that are must-starts or drastically underpriced. Emanuel Wilson will be popular if Josh Jacobs is out, but he is $6,500. It is not as if he is $5,000, where he would be an automatic play. Chase Brown also projects very well with Samaje Perine out, but at $6,90,0 he is not such a strong value that you feel obligated to lock him in.

Because we do not have any underpriced injury replacements, it becomes much harder to get up to Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, or Jonathan Taylor, all of whom are priced above $9,000. Each is worth playing if you can structure your lineup to reach them, especially Gibbs, but it is not easy this week.

Derrick Henry at $8,400 is a discount compared to the top tier and is in a great spot against a Jets defense that is likely to struggle as heavy underdogs to Baltimore. It would not be surprising if Henry ends up as the most popular running back on the slate.

Unlike quarterback, where it is tough to get excited about the true contrarian options, several running backs project for five percent ownership or less and still offer real upside. TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson are each in play against an atrocious Bengals defense. Similarly, Bhayshul Tuten and Travis Etienne Jr. are solid options against an Arizona defense that was shredded by Christian McCaffrey last week. Finally, Ken Walker III is an intriguing tournament play against a Tennessee defense that has allowed some big games on the ground.

Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs is my favorite pay-up option on the slate. He put up 146 total yards last week against a Philadelphia defense that has been excellent against running backs, and the week before that, he totaled 172 yards and three touchdowns against Washington. Those are the only two games we have seen with Dan Campbell calling plays, and the early signs point toward Gibbs being featured even more with Campbell than he was previously. Gibbs also draws an elite matchup against a Giants defense that allows the second-most points per game above expectation to opposing running backs, giving him real upside both on the ground and through the air. The injury to Sam LaPorta provides a slight boost to Gibbs’ receiving projection as well.

Derrick Henry
Over his last five games, Henry has averaged 98 yards on 20.4 carries, and he comfortably projects for another 20-plus carries with Baltimore heavily favored against the Jets. With the Ravens carrying a 29-point team total, he is a strong bet to score at least once and has the kind of multi-touchdown upside that can make him a GPP winner. In a week without much clear value, Henry’s salary is easier to work into builds than some of the other top running back options, which makes him even more appealing.

Chase Brown
The matchup is tough against a strong New England run defense, but it is hard to ignore Brown’s expected workload at a sub-$7K salary. He has 22 targets over the past two weeks and should remain heavily involved with Ja’Marr Chase sidelined. Brown has topped 100 total yards in four straight games and offers the highest floor of any back in this price range. The real question is whether he can deliver enough ceiling to win a GPP.

TreVeyon Henderson
Henderson would likely be the most popular play on the slate if Rhamondre Stevenson were not set to return. He has scored five touchdowns over his last two games and would be in a smash spot if he were guaranteed 20 or more touches against an atrocious Bengals defense that is allowing 11.6 points per game above average to opposing running backs. The challenge is figuring out what Stevenson’s return means. He was the lead back before the injury, and the workload split this week is impossible to project with confidence. We could see Henderson remain the lead back while Stevenson is eased in, or we could see Stevenson step right back into a heavy role, or something in between. That uncertainty is why Henderson is projected for under five percent ownership, but in large-field GPPs, these are exactly the types of high-variance situations worth embracing. I want to be well above the field on both Patriots running backs, with a particular interest in Henderson because of his big-play ability.

Ken Walker III
Walker’s usage is quietly trending in the right direction. He saw 16 carries last week, including a goal-line attempt, and played over half the snaps for just the fourth time this season. Multiple Seahawks coaches have hinted that he is in line for increased opportunities moving forward. Seattle is a 13-point favorite against Tennessee, and the game script points to a heavy dose of Walker against a defense that has faced the tenth-most running back rushing attempts in the league. While I wish he were slightly cheaper, I am willing to take the small value hit for a back projected under five percent ownership. Seattle is heavily favored, and Walker has logged 30 carries over the past two weeks while also catching three passes in the last game.

Bhayshul Tuten
Tuten provided a real spark to the Jaguars' offense last week with 15 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown against a tough Houston defense. He might have had an even bigger game if not for a minor ankle injury late in the contest. We should be open to the possibility that Tuten is about to make his move and emerge as the go-to offensive weapon for the Jaguars. He looks the part of a 20-touch workhorse with the explosiveness to rip off big gains. I love taking shots on Tuten in Week 12 tournaments at this price.

Wide Receiver

Rashee Rice
Rice is the clear WR1 in one of the league’s top passing offenses and remains underpriced for his role. The addition of Sauce Gardner to the Colts' defense makes the matchup a bit less appealing, but the Chiefs do a great job of moving Rice around and using bunch formations to prevent defenses from truly taking away their top option. On top of his heavy involvement as a receiver, Rice has also been getting carries near the goal line, which adds valuable touchdown equity.

Tee Higgins
Higgins draws a tough matchup against Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, but he is simply too cheap for the role he should see with Ja’Marr Chase serving a one-game suspension. Higgins has scored a touchdown in nine of the last ten games in which Cincinnati scored at least 20 points, and has scored in nine straight home games. He has five touchdowns in his last four outings and would have had another if not for his smart decision to slide short of the goal line in the Week 7 win over Pittsburgh.

Jakobi Meyers
With Brian Thomas Jr. ruled out again and Meyers now having more time to settle into the Jaguars' offense after arriving at the trade deadline, he should see increased usage in Week 12. He finished last week with five catches for 64 yards while playing 65 percent of the snaps. He should be close to a full-time player this week and looks like a focal point of the Jaguars' passing game. Meyers stands out as one of the safest options in the $6K-and-under range.

Chris Olave
Tyler Shough impressed in his first career start, and Olave was unsurprisingly his favorite target. Olave caught 5 of 8 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. As noted in the matchups section, this is a spot I love for the Saints offense. The Falcons just gave up 448 passing yards and three touchdowns to Bryce Young and could be demoralized with their season spiraling downward.

Luther Burden III
Expectations were high for Burden after the Bears selected him inside the top 40, but injuries kept him sidelined for much of the offseason program. He was an afterthought early in the year, playing fewer than 20 snaps in each of the first eight weeks. Since the Week 9 bye, though, his playing time has jumped, and he has logged 33 snaps in each of the past two games. He looks like a player progressing toward a bigger role. A breakout performance feels inevitable. I would rather be a week early than a week late, especially with Burden still priced below $5K.

Mitch Tinsley
If you want a deep sleeper who will be on very few rosters at $4,100, Tinsley is your guy. With Ja’Marr Chase out, Tinsley will make his first start of his career. All he has done in Cincinnati is make plays when given opportunities. He was a preseason standout and made a spectacular touchdown grab early in the year on one of his six regular-season targets. The Bengals coaching staff raves about Tinsley. "I mean a true testament to the value of hard work and little else," said offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher this week. "When you're true to that, and you believe in that, and you represent that every single day, you don't need much else, because that will come across to the people who matter when it comes to making those decisions, with regard to what your role is going to be and what you're going to do. So he's the same guy he was, he's self-made, absolutely nothing was handed to him, and he just continues to earn more and more opportunities. That's a great example of you can look at [the Chase suspension] as a burden or an opportunity, and where we find ourselves this weekend. I think for a guy like Mitch, it can be an opportunity.” 

Tight End

Travis Kelce
Kelce is coming off season highs in targets (13) and receptions (9), which he turned into 91 yards and a touchdown. He draws a strong matchup against an Indianapolis defense that gives up the fourth-most points per game above expectation to opposing tight ends. With his recent uptick in usage and the matchup working heavily in his favor, Kelce stands out as the clear top tight end option in the $6K-and-under range.

Hunter Henry
Henry is all about the matchup. The Bengals have been shredded by opposing tight ends this season, allowing 6.6 catches for 80.8 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. For context, Trey McBride is the runaway TE1 and is averaging 7.1 catches for 71.8 yards and 0.7 touchdowns, and Cincinnati is still giving up numbers well beyond even that. The Bengals’ biggest defensive weakness is the pass coverage and tackling of their linebackers and safeties. All three of the league’s leaders in missed tackles play for Cincinnati and will be the primary defenders tasked with covering Henry.

Trey McBride
Since Jacoby Brissett took over as Arizona’s quarterback, McBride has averaged 8.4 catches for 88.6 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on 11.4 targets per game. His salary has risen sharply in recent weeks, which will naturally keep his popularity lower than it has been. There is a clear trade-off: the higher price makes him harder to fit, but it also leads to more unique builds. Given his elite usage, he remains one of the highest-upside plays at the position.

Mike Gesicki
Gesicki is set to return after a month-long absence due to a pectoral injury. He essentially functions as a big slot receiver in the Bengals' offense, so Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension has a direct impact on his expected usage. He is not likely to play an every-down role, but at $4,K he is at least worth consideration in tournaments as a cheap option who could benefit from the extra targets available.