Underdog Pick Em: Week 15

Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.

The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are more fun to root for. 

How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Tracking Last Week

I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week. 

• Last Week (0-4), - $40
• Season (32-30), - $154

Week 14 was my worst week to date. I was on the right track in thinking the Vikings' passing game would get back on track against an awful Commanders defense, but it did not benefit Justin Jefferson. On the other side, Deebo Samuel Sr. came up just short of his receiving prop. I was also somewhat on the right track in thinking Bengals-Bills would be a shootout, but wrong in thinking the starting running backs would have a big hand in things. James Cook and Chase Brown both missed their rushing overs by at least 15 yards. It has been a season of streaks, so let's see if we can start a fresh winning streak in Week 15. 

Weather Angle

When temperatures drop into the single digits, and wind chills fall below zero, the game changes in ways we can take advantage of in making our prop selections. Cold, slick footballs sap efficiency from the deep passing game, lowering completion rates and raising turnover risk, while offenses naturally shift closer to the line of scrimmage. That condensed approach funnels volume to running backs and reliable short-area targets, and it shows up in the data as a boost in rushing efficiency as defenders grow less eager to throw their bodies around in brutal conditions. We have a straightforward setup for that this week with frigid forecasts for Kansas City and Cincinnati. In games like these, the edge comes from fading downfield shots and leaning into volume-driven plays, which is why the props below focus on running backs and check-down options positioned to thrive in freezing conditions.

Underdog Pick Em Prop 1

Chase Brown

• Brown has rushed for over 70 yards in 5 of his last 7 games. Over that stretch, he is averaging 14.0 carries for 75.0 yards. Only Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, and Jonathan Taylor have posted a higher yards per carry mark on a similar workload over this stretch.

• Two weeks ago, Brown carried the ball 15 times for 78 yards against the Ravens.

Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely

• This is all about the Bengals' defense and its inability to cover tight ends. Through 13 games, Cincinnati has allowed 97 catches for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns to the position.

• The problem has only gotten worse in recent weeks. Dalton Kincaid scored last week, while Dawson Knox went for 93 yards. The week before, Isaiah Likely posted 95 yards, and Mark Andrews added another 47. Before that, Hunter Henry went for 115 yards and a touchdown, Austin Hooper chipped in 39, Darnell Washington had 67, and Colston Loveland exploded for 118 yards and two scores.

• The Bengals are giving up yards to opposing tight ends in bunches every single week, and there is no reason to expect either Ravens tight end to struggle after both found success in this matchup two weeks ago.

• Bengals linebackers are completely lost against play-action passes to the tight end, which is a staple of the Ravens offense.

The Bengals' defense, which is having a historically bad year guarding tight ends, is actually pretty good against them in man coverage.

The real debilitating problem is defending play action passes. That's the way this defense is getting killed. https://t.co/4iZTVyPlmZ pic.twitter.com/blsNPFJZcA

— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) December 12, 2025

Underdog Pick Em Prop 2