There is a word that strikes terror into the hearts of fantasy managers far and wide. A word that sends them screaming into the street in a panic. Sends them scrambling for the liquor cabinet. Leaves them a gibbering puddle of misery, blubbering as they slowly pull each and every hair from their heads.
That word is colonoscopy.
Wait, that's the word that terrifies me. Know I need to. But I really don't want to.
No, that word is regression.
In many respects, regression is as inevitable as death, taxes, and that colonoscopy. When a player has a massive season, history has shown us time and again that the odds are against that player doing so two years ago. It can be even less likely for players who come from nowhere to have career seasons after years in Downtown Average.
However, each and every year fantasy managers draft players as though regression isn't as annual an occurrence as draft day itself. They reach for last year's stats. For past production from aging stars. They ignore the reality that the bigger the season, the harder that season is to replicate. So are outliers in statistical categories that can vary greatly from season to season.
Looking at you, touchdowns. Looking right. At. You.
Every year, fantasy drafters ignore the writing on the wall. Ignore the truth. But not this time, Dear Reader. This time the truth will be laid bare for all to see. This time the truth cannot be ignored. This year, this writer is going to truth all over the place.
And I'll even do it without mentioning that San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is the regression candidate this season and the biggest fantasy bust of 2026.
Figure I can take one column off in that regard.
2026 Fantasy Regression Candidates
QB Drake Maye, New England
If Matthew Stafford had an MVP on his NFL resume before last year, Maye would have been named Most Valuable Player in 2025 after ranking fourth in the league in passing yards, third with 31 touchdown passes, fourth in rushing yards among quarterbacks and third in fantasy points among quarterbacks. However, Matt De Lima of The Big Lead cautions that expecting a repeat of those gaudy numbers is a risky proposition.
"The New England Patriots had the easiest strength of schedule in the league last season, avoided every top-10 scoring defense and feasted on eight games against bottom-nine units," he said. The 23-year-old passer put up 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns behind that soft slate. That path of least resistance is gone. Winning the AFC East hands New England a first-place schedule. The Patriots now carry the fifth-hardest strength of schedule for passing in 2026. They'll face Pittsburgh, Seattle and the defenses of the NFC North and AFC West."
Maye's ADP currently sits right where he finished last season—third among quarterbacks. A.J. Brown or no, asking Maye to back up last year's breakout playing a far more difficult schedule on a team that was 23rd in the league in pass attempts is sailing right past optimism into delusion.
QB Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
Last year, Stafford was named the league's MVP after leading the league in passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46) on the way to finishing second in fantasy points among quarterbacks. But as ESPN's Tyler Fulghum wrote, the 38-year-old's massive season was an outlier even by his lofty standards.
"Stafford is screaming regression for 2026", Fulghum wrote. "His 2025 MVP campaign was magical. At age 38, Stafford started all 17 games, led the league in passing yards (4,707) and set career highs in passing TDs (46) and TD% (7.7). It is extraordinarily likely that most, if not all, of those numbers take a dip in 2026. Even if he plays all 17 games again -- which at his age is also going to be hard to do -- it's going to be tough to match what he did in 2025. He also adds next to nothing with his legs."
The good news is that a measure of apprehension regarding Stafford is baked into his ADP this season—he's coming off draft boards 13th among quarterbacks as draft season ramps up. The bad news is that in both 2023 and 2024 Stafford came up short of even that mark—he was QB15 two years ago and QB19 in 2023.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis
Hey, I said I'd leave McCaffrey alone for once. Never said anything about Taylor.
After rushing for 1,585 yards and an NFL-high 18 touchdowns in 2025, Taylor was rewarded by the Colts with a two-year, $44 million contract extension. He's coming off fantasy draft boards as a top-five running back after finishing fourth in PPR points at the position last year. And as Dalton Del Don wrote for the Athletic, Taylor is primed to be a letdown for fantasy managers in 2026.
"Taylor led the NFL with 42.7 fantasy points scored from the 1-yard line, blowing away his averages over the previous five years," Del Don said. "The Colts led the NFL in rushing TD% (51.9), which typically regresses the following season. Over the past 25 NFL seasons, Indianapolis was one of the most efficient teams at the goal line, scoring a touchdown on a whopping 30-of-32 opportunities. Taylor led the league in touchdowns scored over expected."
With a healthy Daniel Jones on the field, Taylor averaged 27.4 PPR points per game and was fantasy's top back last year. Without him, that number free-fell by almost 15 points per game. Workload. High touchdown totals. Offensive questions around him. There are more red flags around Taylor this year than at a Tunisian Republic Day parade.
