We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Indianapolis Colts Coin-Toss Questions
- What Tier Is Jones If He's Healthy for Week 1?
- Will the Colts Add a Running Back Behind Taylor?
- Where Does Warren Rank Among Fantasy Tight Ends?
- Can Pierce Handle a Featured Role with 120-Plus Targets?
- Will the Colts Add a No. 2 Receiver, or Can That Be Downs?
Editor's Note: This piece was written before news of Pierce undergoing ankle surgery. He faces a three-month rehab and will miss OTAs, but Pierce should be ready for the start of training camp.
Alec Pierce has never had more than 84 targets in a season, but the Colts re-signed him to a massive contract, necessitating a more consistent role. Are you comfortable believing Pierce can handle 120+ targets and flourish in a more diverse route tree versus his deep-threat role over his first four seasons?
Maurile Tremblay: I'm not fully comfortable with that. Pierce has been elite in his efficiency, including just one drop on 84 targets last season, and he has obvious chemistry with Daniel Jones. His intended move into a true X role should give him more intermediate work rather than just being a field stretcher. But 120-plus targets would be quite a jump. Josh Downs should see more work, and Tyler Warren is essentially the No. 2 pass catcher, so Pierce may not need to become a massive-volume receiver to justify the deal. I'd be more comfortable projecting him in the 105-115 target range, with 120-plus as possible but not expected.
Andy Hicks: Pierce has been the Colts' top fantasy receiver over the past two seasons, largely driven by his effectiveness as a deep threat — but that role may be challenged as he's asked to take on a larger share of the offense. With Michael Pittman Jr no longer in the picture, a key intermediate option is gone, and the team may look to funnel more volume in Pierce's direction. That shift comes with questions. He recorded six games last season with zero, one, or two receptions, even in his fourth year, and surpassed five catches in just one game. He appears somewhat miscast as a true WR1, and a cautious approach to his expanded role is warranted.
Jeff Haseley: I'm skeptical about 120-plus targets for Pierce. He is a world-class deep threat — he led the NFL in yards per catch — but asking him to become a high-volume receiver suddenly is a big shift. I think he settles around 90-100 targets.