We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Cleveland Browns Coin-Toss Questions:
- Who starts at quarterback in Week 1?
- Do you expect a Browns quarterback to finish as a Top 20 fantasy asset?
- What run/pass ratio do you expect from Todd Monken in Cleveland?
- Where do you rank Quinshon Judkins?
- Would a rookie tailback in the first three rounds change your outlook for Judkins?
- Where do you rank Harold Fannin Jr.?
- Do you expect the Browns to add a starting-caliber rookie receiver? If not, where do you rank Jerry Jeudy?
Q: Who do you expect to start at quarterback in Week 1: Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, or someone else?
Maurile Tremblay: Let's rule Dillon Gabriel out. His 2025 season was cut short by a November concussion, but he was outplayed by Sanders after that. The primary competition should be between Sanders and Deshaun Watson. Watson is still on the team because there hasn't been a way for the Browns to dump his contract. Owner Jimmy Haslam called the Watson trade a "big swing and miss" just a year ago. He recently said that Watson is now getting a "fresh start" with a "great chance" to succeed, but I interpret that more as rationalizing a sunk cost than as a sincere vote of confidence. The Browns are rebuilding, and it's hard for me to view Watson as anything like their quarterback of the future. So I'll bet on Sanders while acknowledging that the battle will likely last throughout training camp.
Jeff Haseley: This is the messiest quarterback room in the league. I expect Deshaun Watson to get the Week 1 nod simply because of the contract, but Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel will be breathing down his neck. I fully expect the Browns will keep a short leash on Watson.
Meng Song: I'm not sure why Deshaun Watson is still a thing. Were there problems with Kevin Stefanski? Of course. That doesn't mean a coaching change is going to suddenly bring back the Watson the Browns thought they were getting when they signed him to the fully guaranteed contract. My guess is that Shedeur Sanders gets a shot to open the season after showing flashes late last year. Cleveland's early-season schedule will determine how much of Watson and Gabriel we see in 2026.
Andy Hicks: It is almost certain to be Watson, with Sanders the only other realistic option. The team needs to determine once and for all whether Watson can still function as an NFL-caliber quarterback, and a new coaching staff at least brings a degree of optimism. Watson's tenure in Cleveland has been nothing short of a four-year disaster, arguably five when you factor in the crippling contract attached to him. The dead cap hit is severe, and while only one year remains on the deal officially, the financial burden will linger for two more seasons. At this stage, there is little reason to believe that at 31 he can rediscover the form he showed at 25. Sanders, on the other hand, outperformed Gabriel and, despite looking overwhelmed at times, flashed enough upside to justify further development. All signs point to another difficult season ahead for Browns fans.
VERDICT: The situation is far from certain, but for now, I’m leaning toward Watson.
No one should be taking an emphatic stand this early in April. The team will undoubtedly give every quarterback on the roster an honest shot at the job. It’s logical to assume the Browns hope Watson can somehow turn back the clock and be at least 80% of the player he was in Houston, but they won’t force the issue. While Watson is immeasurably more talented than Sanders at his peak, he’ll need a healthy, focused, and impressive preseason to actually overtake him. I’d put slight odds on Watson and his upside, but everyone should be prepared to pivot to Sanders if training camp unfolds differently.
Q: Do you expect any Browns quarterback to finish as a Top 20 fantasy asset by year's end?
Maurile Tremblay: No. The quarterbacks themselves do not inspire confidence, and their surrounding cast is worse. The wide receiver group is among the league's worst. It's Jerry Jeudy plus developmental prospects and special teams contributors. The offensive line is being rebuilt almost entirely from scratch. Left tackle remains a glaring vacancy. The running game depends on Quinshon Judkins returning from a fractured fibula and dislocated ankle. Harold Fannin Jr. looks great, but that's not enough.
Jeff Haseley: It's a long shot. Unless Gabriel, or perhaps Sanders, takes over and runs with it, I don't see a Browns quarterback finishing in the Top 20. I envision a heavy defensive and run-oriented game strategy for Cleveland this season.
Meng Song: Sadly, the more things change, the more they stay the same. That's particularly true for many NFL teams without major organizational/ownership changes.
Andy Hicks: No. It is difficult to project 12 teams in a worse situation than the Browns at the end of 2026. A top-30 fantasy asset would still be a hard sell.
VERDICT: No, unless the Browns find an instant impact rookie receiver and Watson returns to form.
There are simply too many ways for this to end in a "no" to spend much time discussing the long-shot scenario where it becomes a "yes."
Q: Todd Monken's system in Baltimore was run-heavy, but that was also based on the personnel (Lamar Jackson/Derrick Henry). What do you expect the run/pass ratio to be in Cleveland?
Maurile Tremblay: It's worth separating Monken's scheme reputation from what Baltimore's personnel dictated. Before the Ravens, Monken was actually known as a pass-first coordinator. His offenses at Tampa Bay and even at Georgia leaned more heavily on the passing game than what he ran with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. He adapts to his roster rather than forcing a philosophical identity. With that in mind, I'd expect Cleveland's 2026 offense to land somewhere around 55 to 58 percent run, which is run-heavy by league standards but less extreme than what Baltimore did with Jackson's unique rushing ability.
Jeff Haseley: With Todd Monken now the head coach in Cleveland, expect it to remain run-heavy, with more creative screens and RPOs. I'm projecting a 55/45 run-to-pass split.
Meng Song: I wouldn't expect a major shift, as Cleveland's roster is even more devoid of pass-catching talent than Baltimore's was. The lone bright spot could be that Harold Fannin Jr. might be thrust into the role fantasy players have wanted Isaiah Likely to have for the last couple of seasons.
Andy Hicks: Unless Deshaun Watson experiences a genuine resurgence, the Browns will look to lean heavily on the run. The problem, however, is the game script. If, as expected, they frequently fall behind, establishing the run becomes increasingly impractical. Judkins provides the offense with a clear focal point, but no single player can carry this unit on his own. The intention may be to run the ball close to 60% of the time, yet the reality is likely to settle nearer 50% unless the Browns are consistently in control of games.
VERDICT: The Browns will throw less (~56%) than they did last season.
While Todd Monken has thrown more at previous stops, his success as a play-caller in those locations was far more limited. On the other hand, the Browns lack the personnel—particularly at quarterback—to justify a pass rate near the top of the league. Cleveland is also unlikely to enjoy many positive game scripts, which will force them out of their neutral plan and into "catch-up mode." Expect more passing than Monken might prefer, but still a step back from last season's 59% clip.
