Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
A Lull?
Here we are. While there are still moves to be made, the bulk of the 2026 free-agent signing period is behind us. Next up? The NFL Draft is less than a month away.
I know what you're thinking . . . It's time to take it easy.
You're not wrong. But easy isn't idle.
The Process Continues
Even if you're not looking to jump into early best-ball drafts (although I highly recommend it), there's still plenty of useful work to be done in assessing values, setting baselines of information, and searching for potential discounts.
While values are hard to come by at the high-end of the player pool, they do exist due to a variety -- and in some cases a combination -- of circumstances. Supporting cast, coaching changes, or disappointing outcomes the year before can all create value. So will the uncertainty that comes from serious injuries suffered last year, and the ongoing associated rehabs and recoveries.
We'll start with three of the game's top performers, each with their own questions, upside, and pricing issues.
No Discounts Here
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As ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley reminded readers, in the Ravens' season finale in Pittsburgh, Lamar Jackson looked like his two-time NFL Most Valuable Player self again, putting together his best quarter in what had been a frustrating year.
Jackson threw touchdown passes of 50 and 64 yards to Zay Flowers and even turned a near-certain sack into a magical escape.
It marked the second time in NFL history that a player threw two go-ahead touchdowns of 50 yards or longer in the fourth quarter, according to ESPN Research.
But, at least for last season, that wasn't the norm . . .
Expectations Were High
Jackson's 2024 season, with 41 touchdown passes and just four interceptions, was among the best ever for an NFL quarterback.
Never before had a player topped 40 touchdowns while throwing fewer than five interceptions.
Jackson, already the all-time leading QB rusher, also broke Michael Vick's career rushing record (6,110 yards) on Christmas Day in 2024.
And the arm?
Underrated.
Jackson was no longer just a dual threat; he'd become a complete NFL player and a fantasy weapon, and his QB1 finish seemed like the start of something bigger, but . . .
2026 Wasn't Great
With a 6-7 record, his first losing campaign as a starting quarterback, Jackson averaged 196.1 yards passing per game and threw 21 touchdown passes -- his fewest since 2022.
The biggest ramification of the Ravens' 8-9 season was the surprise firing of John Harbaugh, who was the franchise's winningest coach, after 18 seasons.
But for fantasy investors, the impact was more direct.
Jackson finished the season as QB20 on a total points basis, which is understandable considering he only played 13 games. But he was QB16 on a points-per-game basis, which fell far short of expectations.
So, was last season an outlier? Or is it the start of a trend?
Health Was One Issue
When Jackson left the Week 4 game in Kansas City with a hamstring injury, he and the Ravens' offense were never the same for the rest of the season.
Jackson endured the worst slump of his career in November and December, which coincided with a reduced amount of practice time. For six straight weeks, he missed the first practice of the week with a string of injuries (including knee, ankle, and toe injuries). He also missed time due to illness.
Over that span of six games, Jackson averaged 177 yards passing, throwing three touchdown passes and five interceptions. He also failed to record a touchdown in three straight games during that stretch, the first time in his career that's happened.
But there was more to it than that . . .
The Missing Ingredients
There were two notable issues: Protection and precision.
Jackson's remarkable 2024 season came as he enjoyed the best pass protection of his career. He was sacked on only 4.3 percent of his dropbacks (23 sacks on 538 dropbacks).
This past season, Jackson had the worst pass protection of his career.
He was sacked on 9.8 percent of his dropbacks, and he faced a pressure rate of 37.1 percent (percentage of dropbacks where the quarterback was sacked, under duress, or hit), which was the second worst in the league in 2025.
The protection issues played a role in Jackson's most inaccurate season since his rookie year in 2018.
His precision pass rate, which is the percentage of pass attempts that hit targets in stride, was 48.7 percent in 2025. In comparison, Jackson's two highest precision pass rates came in 2019 (54.9 percent) and 2023 (56.1 percent), which were his MVP seasons.
Of course, Jackson being a dangerous runner has been his (and our) saving grace. It's carried the QB and fantasy investors when the passing numbers have waned at times . . .
The Dip That Hurt Most
Former Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken often called Jackson's ability to run his "superpower."
In Monken's first two seasons in Baltimore, he called an average of 4.4 designed runs for Jackson.
Last season, there were an average of two designed runs per game.
Jackson carried the ball only 5.2 times per game, three attempts per game fewer than any previous season.
Jackson also chose to buy more time throwing the ball than taking off to run, scrambling 40 times for 213 yards.
And he was not as explosive when he did run, failing to produce a run over 20 yards for the first time in his career.
Jackson not running as much limited the entire offense.
Before last season, Jackson averaged 59.9 rushing yards per game. In 2025, he totaled less than half of that per game (26.8).
The end result was . . .
A Perfect Storm
Between collapsing protection, declining accuracy, and a sharp drop in rushing usage, Jackson's regression was systemic.
Now, new head coach Jesse Minter has made steadying Jackson and getting him back on track a priority. Minter recently told the Ravens' website that he wants an offensive system where Jackson doesn't have to feel like he's "Superman" every time the ball is snapped.
The first and most important step toward that goal was hiring Declan Doyle away from Chicago to be their offensive coordinator.
As Kownack noted, in Ben Johnson and Doyle's first year in Chicago, the Bears took massive steps, awaking from their four-year postseason hibernation and, once there, winning a playoff game for the first time since the 2010 season. The Ravens, far more entrenched in recent success despite coming off a missed postseason, will hope Doyle carries over some of that magic and more to Baltimore.
But all that starts under center. Doyle and the Ravens need Jackson to return to being the NFL's most dominant quarterback for Baltimore to have the league's most prolific offense.
This Isn't a Huge Reach
We've seen Jackson rebound from lesser seasons. We'll throw out his seven-start QB29 rookie season.
Since then?
- QB1 in 2019 and 2024
- QB10 in 2020
- QB16 in 2021 and 2025
- QB14 in 2022
- QB4 in 2023
So, there's ample reason for optimism.
As Footballguy Matt Waldman recently reminded readers, Jackson was QB2 after the first four weeks of the season. Jackson was only three points behind Josh Allen and led the NFL with 10 passing touchdowns and 9.15 yards per attempt.
But it's also fair to wonder if 2024 was his peak season.
"Sure," Waldman said of that possibility. "But I think it's premature to wonder if Jackson's game falls off a cliff -- especially when considering that quarterbacks tend to get better as passers as they mature. Jackson has become one of the excellent passers and pocket players in the NFL."
Others aren't so sure.
Baltimore Sun columnist Mike Preston openly questioned Jackson's toughness and long-term commitment to the Ravens. At one point last season, after a Week 11 win over the Browns, CBS Sports analyst and former NFL running back Damien Harris said on-air that Jackson was "playing scared and hesitant."
Already this offseason, there has been talk of Jackson's long-standing habit of not taking part in the conditioning program and other organized activities. There's also talk about a potential contract impasse.
None of the negatives have dropped his price.
Value-Based Concerns
Jackson opens the year as QB6 on the Footballguys projections; he's being drafted as QB2 late in the third round according to early Average Draft Position (ADP) data.
Even if you think he'll finish closer to his ADP than his projection, we often look through the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) lens created by Footballguy Joe Bryant back in the 90s.
For newcomers, the basic premise of VBD is that a given player's true value is not determined by the total number of fantasy points they score, but by how much they outscore the rest of the field at their specific position.
We're not getting that separation from the pack with Jackson unless he delivers at the highest level possible.
Even in Round 4, Jackson feels like a bigger gamble than usual given the poor 2025, new coaching staff, and offensive system . . .
