Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
It's Never Too Soon
Regular Fantasy Notebook readers know I've been out there drafting since the week after the Super Bowl.
It started exclusively with best-ball drafts.
More recently, I've started doing regular redraft and dynasty drafts.
Some of you are asking how we benefit from drafting so far in advance of the season. We have nearly four months before the regular season begins. A lot can change.
But Drafting Sharpens Our Skills
It's not complicated. The more you do it, the better you understand the lay of the land heading into the drafts that matter most. You're less likely to get caught short or make panic picks after getting sniped.
But most important of all, getting a feel for how the crowd views players helps us find value.
Finding players capable of outperforming their perceived value is the first step to winning leagues. Part of that is examining how the field is pricing players over time.
The Edge
Keeping up with rising and falling Average Draft Position (ADP) is a great way to get a jump on your competition. You can leverage that information to reach for players when necessary, and let players fall down the board when possible.
I'm especially interested in players whose prices are dropping -- for the obvious reason: I want bargains.
This week's Notebook, using research from Footballguy Dan Hindery that tracks Underdog, DraftKings, and Drafters best-ball drafts, is going to assess some players whose value has diminished over the last month.
Rolling the Dice On Pierce's Role
Alec Pierce was already an interesting bet. Now he's a cheaper one.
Fantasy investors had him at WR31 a few weeks ago, off the board around pick 68. He's fallen more than seven spots in the consensus over the last month.
Pierce is WR34 now, available as late as pick 75.
That's the wrong direction given the circumstances . . .
What Changed In Indianapolis
The Colts used the transition tag on Daniel Jones. Pierce's status with the team was briefly in doubt.
That's no longer the case.
His new deal with the Colts, worth an average of $29 million per season, puts Pierce on par with Amon-Ra St. Brown among NFL wide receivers. That's real money. You don't pay a guy WR1 money to play a complementary role.
Hours later, the Colts traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers.
Two transactions with one conclusion: Pierce is the alpha now.
The Role That Brought Us Here
Pierce posted 1,003 yards on 47 catches in 2025 -- his first 1,000-yard season -- and led the NFL in yards per catch (21.3) for the second straight year.
He's led the Colts in receiving yards each of the past two seasons. He's never ranked higher than third in team target share doing it.
Only three receivers since 2000 have cleared 1,000 yards on 90 or fewer targets: A.J. Brown in 2019, Mike Williams in 2019, and Pierce last season.
Of his receptions, 36.2 percent went for 20 yards or more. He had one dropped pass all year.
Pierce finished the season as WR27.
After doing more with less, expecting him to do more with more seems like a safe bet.
What's Still Uncertain
Pierce hasn't handled a true alpha workload.
Jones is coming off a torn Achilles. The offense's ceiling depends on his return to the form he showed through 10 weeks last season -- leading the NFL in passing yards, while finishing in the top six in completion percentage and yards per attempt. Pierce told the Indianapolis Star his bond with Jones has tightened over their 10 months together.
Sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that Jones is expected to be ready for Week 1.
Buying the Dip?
Footballguy Matt Waldman, who had Pierce as his WR7 in the 2022 draft, sees a Justin Jefferson-style outcome in play -- a vertical threat who wins with hands, speed, timing, and toughness at the catch point.
So there's the high-end of the range of possible outcomes.
Paying for Pierce as a tail-end WR3 is a very reasonable gamble. But if he goes at the higher end of the range, in the middle of Round 6, landing him as your WR4 would be fantastic.
It's much easier to deal with the questions about Pierce a full round later.
Tuten Getting Tastier
In last week's Fantasy Notebook, I stated, "I like Bhayshul Tuten, but not at his price."
That was then. The price is changing now.
He was at RB23 a few weeks ago. He's RB26 now.
Looking at the consensus ADP, Tuten has fallen almost 14 spots over the last month.
The further fantasy investors push him down the board, the more attention he deserves . . .
The Room
Travis Etienne Jr. is gone, signing a four-year, $47.4 million contract with the Saints. Jacksonville replaced him with Chris Rodriguez Jr. on a two-year, $10 million deal. LeQuint Allen Jr. and DeeJay Dallas round out the backfield.
But Rodriguez is a wild card here.
That's the Biggest Issue
Rodriguez played for Liam Coen at Kentucky in 2021, which gives him a head start on the playbook and a ready-made relationship with the head coach. He's also the heavier back. With 920 yards and 10 touchdowns across three seasons in Washington, he's built for short-yardage and goal-line work.
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom recently flagged a big concern: Tuten isn't the passing-down back, isn't the goal-line back, and his fumble history could cost him snaps.
Our colleague Dave Kluge agreed, noting upon Rodriguez's arrival that Tuten's path to workload "got a bit narrower."
That's a fair assessment.
But It's Not All Negative
Tuten is still "that" guy. The one with 4.32 speed in the 40. The one who averaged 3.31 yards after contact per attempt as a rookie -- 13th among backs with 70-plus carries.
The one who demonstrated his upside in the playoffs with consecutive runs of 20, 14, and 13 yards.
But he only averaged 6.2 touches a game working behind Etienne. Even with Rodriguez on board, the ceiling on Tuten's workload is higher.
The head coach matters here, too.
FantasyPros' Pat Fitzmaurice noted that Coen "has been a rainmaker for RBs recently" -- with Bucky Irving in 2024 and Etienne in 2025 being examples of that.
The theory is, somebody in the Jaguars' running back room is going to matter.
The New Math
Three weeks ago, Tuten was priced as if the lead-back outcome was already baked in. That's where Bloom and Kluge were right to push back.
But Tuten falling outside RB2 territory makes him far more appealing to me.
It's the same uncertainty, but with more upside. And that's where you start gaining a strategic edge.
We were paying for certainty that didn't necessarily exist at RB23. We're paying for opportunity at RB26.
And that's a buy for me.
