Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Shifting Roles Open New Possibilities
With all the turnover in the NFL, one thing is certain: change will create opportunities.
Dynamic circumstances -- free agency, coaching, and scheme changes -- lead to new and sometimes unexpected roles.
Even with more change coming with this month's NFL Draft, our task this time of year is to identify emerging roles and the fantasy values they create.
Remember: This is a Process.
It's easier to plot strategies when you follow along and make the necessary adjustments in real time. It starts with setting up reasonable ranges of outcomes and carries over to figuring out where we feel each player sits in their respective ranges at any given point in time.
This week, we'll look at three running backs who should benefit from a change in outlooks this year and begin the process of setting expectations for them.
Houston, We Have a Lead Back
At the NFL Scouting Combine in February, Texans coach DeMeco Ryans made it clear during an interview with the NFL Network what he wanted improved in free agency: The run game.
As ESPN.com's DJ Bien-Aime noted, so far, the team has tried -- through trades and free agency -- to overhaul a run game that ranked 22nd last season and was tied for fourth worst at 3.9 yards per carry.
The work started via trade. Earlier this month, Houston traded starting offensive lineman Tytus Howard to the Cleveland Browns for a fifth-round draft pick while acquiring running back David Montgomery from the Detroit Lions on the same day.
Montgomery, who will turn 29 in June, was set to make $5.49 million this season. The Texans revised that contract in March, giving the veteran a $1 million raise.
Will his role reflect that?
A History of Production
Montgomery comes to Houston with an impressive resume: Four years in Chicago after the Bears took him in the third round of the 2019 draft. Three more in Detroit, where he piled up 2,506 rushing yards, 650 receiving yards, and 33 touchdowns.
He was a productive and reliable contributor in Detroit.
Then Jahmyr Gibbs happened.
Montgomery went from 219 carries in 2023, Gibbs' rookie season, to 185 in 2024. Last year, that number fell to 158.
Montgomery did not start a game in 2025, totaling 716 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He caught 24 passes for 192 yards.
In 2024, he rushed for 775 yards and 12 touchdowns and caught 36 passes for 341 yards in just 14 games.
The snap share didn't crater -- 37 percent last year compared to 41 percent in 2024 -- but the touches did.
Montgomery averaged barely over 10 per game after topping 15 in each of his first two seasons in Detroit. Over the Lions' final eight games, he never carried the ball more than 10 times.
That will change in Houston.
Why We Got Here
Joe Mixon missed the 2025 season with injury, and Nick Chubb -- signed as the veteran answer -- never found his Cleveland form. Rookie Woody Marks led the backfield with 703 rushing yards and showed enough to earn attention, including a 112-yard, one-touchdown performance against Pittsburgh in the wild-card round. Jawhar Jordan added a 101-yard day against Arizona.
But when it mattered most, the ground game evaporated.
In a 28-16 divisional round loss to New England, Houston managed 48 yards on 22 carries. Marks was held to 17 yards on 14 attempts and fumbled at a critical moment. The Texans converted just one of four red-zone opportunities -- and that inefficiency wasn't new. It shadowed a 13-6 squad all season.
Montgomery won't fix everything.
But a team that couldn't run the ball, couldn't punch it in, and couldn't stay on the field is now handing the keys to a back who spent three years doing exactly that in one of the league's best offenses.
They've Done This Before
In 2024, Mixon served as a definitive bell-cow back when healthy. Despite missing several games early in the season and seeing his workload scaled back in the regular-season finale, his volume remained remarkably consistent. He had seven games with 20 or more carries.
While primarily a rusher, Mixon was a steady safety valve for C.J. Stroud. The veteran back averaged more than three targets per game.
Most importantly, the gap between Mixon and the rest of the backfield was significant.
Working alongside Dameon Pierce, who impressed as a rookie in 2023 while working in a timeshare with Devin Singletary, Mixon rarely saw fewer than 20 touches.
His "lightest" full games were Week 12 (19 touches) and the Divisional Round (20 touches).
Remember, Houston's strength is its defense.
There's no better way to complement that than with a strong rushing attack.
Trust Level: High
Expecting Montgomery to get volume similar to what Mixon did is a solid starting point.
The newcomer has already climbed into the tail end of the RB2 conversation -- a rise of 50 spots at his position. He sits at RB24 in the latest Footballguys Average Draft Position data.
Assuming he is indeed the primary option in Houston, Montgomery will get the volume necessary to post RB1 numbers any given week.
Targeted at his current price, I'm very confident in the return on investment.
Back to the Future in Carolina?
The running game is always going to be a big part of what Dave Canales wants to do with the Panthers' offense.
As Darin Gantt of the team's official website noted, when you run the ball, you control the clock. And if you're efficient on third downs, you can run even more. And the more times you're able to run, the better your chances of winning become.
"Good things happen when you run the ball; you run the ball when good things happen," Canales likes to say. "It works both ways, and it's a part of who we are."
So for the Panthers, this is always going to be a priority.
We're Counting on It
It's a big reason that Chuba Hubbard thrived in his first season under Canales.
With rookie Jonathon Brooks recovering from an ACL tear in 2024, Hubbard set career highs in attempts (250), yards (1,195), touchdowns (10), and receptions (43), tacking on 171 receiving yards and a score in 15 starts.
That was good for RB13 on a per-game basis, with 16.4 fantasy points per game.
Sharing is Caring?
The Panthers demonstrated their commitment to the rushing attack last offseason by signing Rico Dowdle in free agency, when he was coming off a 1,000-yard season of his own.
The plan was for Hubbard and Dowdle to share the load, as the Panthers have done with duos like Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams or Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster in the past.
It didn't work out that way.
The job-share thing lasted until Hubbard suffered a calf injury in Week 4, which kept him out the next two weeks and slowed him for a few more, and Dowdle was more than up to the task of subbing in.
From Weeks 5-9, Dowdle ran 103 times for 652 yards and three touchdowns, with a 206-yard outburst against the Dolphins followed by 183 against the Cowboys the following week.
He also put 130 yards on the board in Week 9 against the Packers, when Carolina pulled off a road upset in large part by playing keep away with 33 rushing attempts.
Dowdle tailed off a bit after that initial outburst, averaging 3.25 per carry the rest of the season, but he had his second straight 1,000-yard season, finishing with 1,076 on the ground.
Once Hubbard returned to health, he continued to contribute (734 combined yards from scrimmage) and didn't cause a fuss despite Dowdle getting the lion's share of the snaps the rest of the regular season.
Still Committed
The focus on the run? Being central to Canales' philosophy, it's not changing.
That being the case, allowing Dowdle to walk represents a vote of confidence in Hubbard, who came on strong down the stretch.
He's the undisputed No. 1 option again, but like last year, the range of outcomes includes a timeshare.
A Fly in the Ointment?
Brooks, recovering from ACL surgery on his right knee for the second time since 2023, is expected to participate in offseason workouts and a June minicamp.
Canales on Monday said the 2024 second-round pick out of Texas has progressed to the point where he's ready to "be put in a football scenario with other people around him."
"I know what he looked like prior to the injury," Canales told reporters at the NFL's Annual Meeting being held in Phoenix. "I know what that player looks like, so I have that in the back of my mind. And that's a vision that I hope he has, too, so we can go and attack that."
As noted above, Brooks had his first surgery in November 2023 while in college.
Understanding that he might not be ready for the regular season, the Panthers selected Brooks with the 46th pick in the 2024 draft, and he missed all of preseason and the first nine games before making his NFL debut on Nov. 24, 2024.
He then re-injured the knee against the Eagles in his third game and missed the entire 2025 season while recovering from surgery.
Brooks, who's still only 22, could be a difference maker.
As Fansided's Dean Jones said of Brooks, "Everyone's forgotten that he was projected as the best running back in the 2024 class. Everyone's forgotten that he was a Heisman Trophy candidate before getting hurt. Everyone's forgotten just how phenomenal a dual-threat he could be within Canales's schematic concepts."
His expected return is one of several reasons why Carolina didn't push to re-sign Dowdle.
Even though Hubbard appears to be locked in as RB1 to open the season, how the Panthers deploy Brooks is a dynamic to watch.
Trust Level: Low
Remember, Hubbard's RB15 overall finish in 2024 made him a popular early-to-mid-round pick last summer. But that production came from nearly 300 touches, an unexpected outcome that came because Brooks wasn't ready to contribute.
At cost -- Hubbard is available as RB26 -- we're betting on volume that may not exist by midseason.
Yes, there's a case to be made that Hubbard holds the job all year.
But if Brooks is healthy and available, offensive coordinator Brad Idzik, who will call the plays for Canales, will have an embarrassment of riches at the position. And one thing we know for sure: this coaching staff will ride the hot hand when given an opportunity.
And if Brooks lives up to his potential? He could take over as the lead back.
Given the circumstances, I'll have more shares of Brooks at RB44 in Round 11 than Hubbard, who will cost a fifth-round pick.
Rootin' for Tuten?
As ESPN.com's Michael DiRocco recently wrote, "When Bhayshul Tuten left the Jacksonville Jaguars facility in mid-January, he wasn't sure what his role would be when he got back in April for the offseason conditioning program.
"The No. 2 running back behind Travis Etienne Jr.? The No. 1? Splitting the job on a 50-50 basis with Etienne . . . Or someone else?"
Tuten now has a better understanding of what that looks like. We do too . . .
Better, But Not Full Understanding
There's a bit more clarity after free agency -- Etienne signed a four-year, $47.4 million contract with the New Orleans Saints, and the Jaguars replaced him with Chris Rodriguez Jr., signing the former Washington Commanders backup to a two-year, $10 million contract.
It'll be a while before it's determined what the workload share between Tuten and Rodriguez will be.
And that's a problem for fantasy investors.
Where We're At Now
The running back room in Jacksonville also includes second-year player LeQuint Allen Jr. and seven-year veteran DeeJay Dallas.
Tuten, the Jaguars' 2025 fourth-round pick out of Virginia Tech, ran for 305 yards and five touchdowns and caught 10 passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie last season. He missed two games in December with a broken finger but returned for the regular-season finale and had four carries for 52 yards and three kickoff returns for 49 yards in the Jaguars' wild-card loss to Buffalo.
Allen played mainly as a third-down back because of his blocking and had 23 carries for 94 yards and 10 catches for 54 yards. Dallas joined the team in December and played mainly as a kickoff returner, and had just two carries. Combined, those players ran for 422 yards and five touchdowns, which still didn't equal what Rodriguez did with the Commanders -- 500 yards and six rushing touchdowns in 2025.
Rodriguez rushed for 920 yards and 10 touchdowns in a mainly reserve role in three seasons in Washington, which makes him the Jaguars' most experienced back.
But it's not just that broad experience, it's more specific . . .
The X Factor
Rodriguez brings experience in head coach Liam Coen's offense because Coen was Kentucky's offensive coordinator in 2021 during Rodriguez's junior season.
That might make him an early leader to be the Jaguars' No. 1 back heading into the summer.
At this point, the plan will likely be to have Rodriguez and Tuten share the bulk of the carries. That could change, however, as it did last season after Etienne's strong spring and training camp led to him getting the top spot over Tank Bigsby, who was then traded to the Eagles.
"There's a lot of strong matches just generally from how those two [Rodriguez and Tuten] in tandem can really work together," general manager James Gladstone said. "And then also our interest in continuing to find ways to level up our capacity in the run game to make it a really balanced attack."
That makes sense.
As Fantasy Pros' Pat Fitzmaurice wrote, "Coen has been a rainmaker for RBs recently, presiding over a breakout season for Bucky Irving as the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator in 2024 and helping orchestrate a big season for Etienne in 2025."
Somebody here is going to fare well.
We're currently drafting as if that will be Tuten. Is that the right approach?
Trust Level: Moderate
It seems reasonable to believe Tuten will play a larger role this year after averaging 6.2 touches a game as a rookie. He's a physical runner with blazing 4.32 speed. He averaged 3.31 yards after contact per attempt last season, which ranked 13th among RBs with at least 70 carries.
We saw the upside in the playoffs when he delivered consecutive runs of 20, 14, and 13 yards.
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom pointed out in his 7 Players You Should Be Selling In the Wake of Free Agency, however, "The problem for Tuten here is that he isn't going to be the passing down back, and he's not going to be the goal line back -- Rodriguez is known for his power between the tackles. Tuten also has had fumble issues that could drop him out of favor."
Nonetheless, Tuten is currently being drafted in the fifth round as RB23. Rodriguez is RB44, like Brooks, available in Round 11.
We're paying for certainty that doesn't exist.
Footballguy Dave Kluge believes Rodriguez teaming up with his college coordinator bodes well for the newcomer. There's familiarity in the offense and proven trust with the head coach. Kluge contends that Tuten's projections take a ding with Rodriguez around, especially when factoring in that expected role near the goal line.
"This Jaguars offense is trending in the right direction," Kluge added, "and both backs can find different paths to success.
"Tuten's path, however, got a bit narrower."
This and That: More Rehabs and Recoveries Edition
We touched on this topic in last week's Notebook, but just scratched the surface. This week, we'll go through more rehabs and recoveries, with plenty of new information from this past week's NFL Annual Meeting in Arizona to help us set some baselines . . .
