Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
It's a Big Week
The 2026 NFL Draft begins with the first round on Thursday, followed by Rounds 2 and 3 on Friday night, and Rounds 4 through 7 on Saturday afternoon.
You'll find no shortage of information to get you up to speed on the festivities and -- more importantly -- the players involved.
Sigmund Bloom's Pre-Draft Bloom 100 is a great starting point. Dig deeper with the Footballguys 2026 Rookie Draft Guide. Version 2 has been updated to include staff mock drafts and team needs. Version 3.0, with landing spots and full analysis, will be available on Wednesday.
In addition, we'll have tons of live coverage on our YouTube channels.
I'll be on The Audible channel with Bloom and Matt Waldman Thursday night. Dave Kluge, Jeff Bell, and Joey Wright will be livestreaming on the Footballguys Fantasy Football channel Friday night.
While it's safe to say teams have plans heading into Thursday night, there will be a ton of smoke blown between now and the start of festivities. You'll find ongoing coverage of that, more mock drafts, and other draft-related content on our Articles page.
That being the case, how about something different today?
Counter Programming
That's right. We're going to take a break from the NFL Draft coverage to look at some veteran superstars on the other end of the career arc.
We'll sort out their histories, anticipated roles, supporting casts, and possible additions, then use all that to assess their values -- perceived and real -- in redraft, best ball, and dynasty drafts to remind you that while the world is chasing rookies, there is still veteran talent that's capable of breaking your league.
The question is, are we paying for past production or future wins?
Let's start at the top . . .
Making the (CM)Case
Split and ambiguous backfields have become a thing in the NFL. Also, there's nothing more difficult to decipher and project on a week-to-week basis.
It's why we love feature backs.
We're drafting roles almost as much as players.
I say almost, because if we were drafting solely on anticipated workload -- as both a rusher and receiver -- it would be hard to argue against Christian McCaffrey as the 1.01 in every draft.
Look No Further Than Last Season
Coming off an injury-ravaged 2024 campaign, McCaffrey was named the 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year after appearing in every game and accounting for 2,126 -- 35.6 percent -- of San Francisco's 5,974-yard offensive output.
Only Atlanta's Bijan Robinson exceeded that percentage with a 40.6 percent share.
But McCaffrey's 2025 workload was historically heavy:
- McCaffrey had 311 carries for 1,202 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, plus 102 receptions for 924 yards and seven receiving scores, eclipsing 2,000 scrimmage yards for the third time.
- He ranked second in the NFL in scrimmage yards, third in scrimmage touchdowns, and first in touches, with his 413 total opportunities leading the league and far exceeding the second-place mark of 369.
- The 49ers heavily utilized him as a pass-catcher, targeting him 129 times, the second most of his career.
- He played 932 offensive snaps -- 83 percent of San Francisco's total -- both career highs since 2019.
That usage reflected the team's receiving injuries: virtually every wide receiver missed time, as did tight end George Kittle, forcing the offense to lean on McCaffrey in the passing game.
It's reasonable to believe better overall health will lead to a more varied attack, but . . .
Will the Niners Really Dial Back?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has prioritized reducing McCaffrey's workload in 2026, recognizing both his age-30 season and the toll of 2025.
"I know that I don't want Christian to have to take all of that," Shanahan told ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner last month. "For us to be the running team we want to be, to have Christian be as good as he can be throughout the whole year, we've got to get someone to help him."
But we've heard this before.
Leading up to and during McCaffrey's 2023 Offensive Player of the Year campaign, Shanahan often spoke about the delicate balance between utilizing McCaffrey's unique skills and protecting him from excessive "wear and tear."
That year, the Niners made it all the way to the Super Bowl, and McCaffrey played a then-unprecedented role in Shanahan's offense, amassing a league-high 339 touches for a league-high 2,023 yards and a league-high 21 all-purpose touchdowns.
Working in relief, Elijah Mitchell had 75 carries in 11 games, and Jordan Mason took 40.
The Conundrum
McCaffrey, who will turn 30 in June, has missed 37 games since 2020 due to injuries to his knee, ankle, oblique, calf, hamstring, thigh, shoulder, and Achilles.
If the physical toll of McCaffrey's career was reflected in last year's yards-per-carry average -- his 3.9 yards per attempt were his lowest as a 49er -- Shanahan's desire to preserve him with a more equitable division of backfield labor makes sense.
The problem is easy to see.
The drop-off from the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year to the next-best running back on the roster is precipitous. So, instead of limiting him as planned, Shanahan wound up explaining how much the 49ers need McCaffrey on the field because of the way his pass-catching prowess impacts defenses.
Shanahan also often notes that McCaffrey doesn't like leaving games, as if McCaffrey determines his own playing time.
Is Help Coming?
Before last season, the 49ers traded for running back Brian Robinson Jr., who served as McCaffrey's primary backup. But Robinson departed for Atlanta in free agency. That leaves Jordan James and Isaac Guerendo, entering their second and third seasons, respectively, as the top options on the current depth chart.
James, in particular, should get a longer look this season if he can stay healthy.
The addition of Mike Evans should provide a solid target for Brock Purdy (more on that below).
Third-year receiver Ricky Pearsall might have great abilities, but he's yet to demonstrate the best ability -- availability -- since his arrival in San Francisco. And of course, Kittle is coming off a torn Achilles that will likely cost him time early in the season.
So, how realistic is the talk of dialing back on McCaffrey's workload?
It might be the desired outcome, but my expectation is another season of McCaffrey handling all the work as he can.
And he knows how to turn opportunities into fantasy points.
The Numbers Say It All
In 2023, McCaffrey turned his massive workload into 24.7 fantasy points per game, well ahead of the field at his position.
The high-end weeks were copious. McCaffrey scored at least 25 points five times, more than 30 points three times, and more than 40 points twice.
Massive weeks have become the norm.
After he was dealt to San Francisco in 2022, he averaged 21.7 points per game as a Niner, including five games with at least 25 points.
Last year, as RB1 overall McCaffrey delivered 24.5 points per game -- 2.5 points per week more than Robinson managed with Atlanta en route to his RB2 finish.
McCaffrey had eight games of more than 25 PPR points, and finished with more than 30 points five times.
The Elephant in the Room
In addition to being 30 when the season starts, McCaffrey will become one of nine players in the past 20 years to be coming off a season with 400-plus touches.
Since 2010, running backs with 400-plus touches have averaged 12.7 games the following season. While the median is 15 games, high-profile situations (like McCaffrey in 2020 and 2024) skew the results toward missed time.
But there have been exceptions.
- LaDainian Tomlinson reached 400-plus touches three times (2002, 2003, 2006) and missed only three games total between ages 22 and 30.
- Emmitt Smith hit 400-plus touches four times between 1991 and 1995. He remained remarkably durable, missing just three games in that span.
- Curtis Martin set a career high in rushing yards at age 31 to close out a heavy-usage career, finishing with 398 touches that season.
Again, those outcomes don't represent the norm. But McCaffrey is putting in some serious work to make sure he's up to the task.
Christian McCaffrey trains like an animal 🤯 pic.twitter.com/izBsSXjIkj
— Polymarket Football (@PolymarketBlitz) April 14, 2026
Still, the overall history of overworked backs shouldn't be dismissed.
Risk vs. Reward
McCaffrey's floor is still higher than most players' ceilings.
Even taking into account the possibility he may be transitioning into a more managed, high-leverage role, I have McCaffrey as my RB3 behind Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
I'll be helping myself to shares at cost -- he's going with the sixth pick with his RB3 Average Draft Position (ADP) -- in both redraft and best ball.
In dynasty formats, McCaffrey falls to RB10 on the current Footballguys Consensus Dynasty Rankings.
That's a reasonable spot. Even if you only get a season out of him, McCaffrey is capable of being a league-winning component if he holds up, and running back is a position you can take chances on.
The King (Still) Lives
Derrick Henry's 3,516 rushing yards over the last two seasons are the most in the NFL. As the team's official website suggested, "King Henry doesn't need a successor just yet. He shows no sign of slowing down at age 32."
ESPN's Mike Clay notes that Henry finished the 2025 season exactly second in the NFL in rushing yards for the fourth season in a row, and his 24 carries inside the 5-yard line were easily the most in the league. Henry leads the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line (42) and is second in touchdowns (34) since joining Baltimore before the 2024 season, and he hasn't finished lower than eighth among running backs in touchdowns since 2017.
Although he's a non-factor in the passing game, Henry continues to run at a high level. His 5.2 yards per carry last season ranked fifth among qualified backs.
History Isn't on His Side
So, yes. Henry has defied the odds and logic. But as Jason La Canfora, in an article published on SI.com, wrote, "Father Time is undefeated, and the workhorse is facing the greatest challenge of his career in 2026."
La Canfora went on to explain that age 30 is the year that is generally considered when football players -- especially high-touch running backs -- get old and fade. In reality, however, it's age 32 that has spelled the end of virtually every productive running back in the history of the sport since the 1970 merger between the NFL and AFL.
Henry ran for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns on 307 carries during the 2025 season, which ended for the Ravens with a game on the running back's 32nd birthday. Duplicating that production in 2026 would set the record for the most rushing yards in a season that started with the ball-carrier already at least 32 years old.
Walter Payton ran for 1,551 yards and nine touchdowns on 324 carries for the Chicago Bears as a 32-year-old in 1985. That's the best showing, in terms of rushing yards, for a player who was 32 years old or older.
According to AL.com's Mark Inabinett, there have only been 12 1,000-yard rushing seasons for players who were at least 32 years old.
Why should we believe Henry will be the 13th?
There are a number of reasons, not the least of which is . . .
The New Coach Is on His Side
New Baltimore coach Jesse Minter said the Ravens would be counting on Henry to be a "major, major" part of their offense in the 2026 season.
That's exactly what fantasy investors are looking for.
If nothing else, knowing the desired outcome can help us . . .
Setting the Range of Outcomes
Henry finished as RB7 last year and RB4 in 2024 while carrying the ball more than 300 times for the Ravens.
Having Lamar Jackson in the backfield is a massive boon.
Still, La Canfora believes expecting Henry to continue operating at 300-plus touches and a ridiculous 5.6 yards per carry (his regular-season average as a Raven) is foolish.
Clay argues that Henry remains a featured rusher in a terrific offense and is well-positioned for his fifth consecutive top-eight fantasy campaign.
For me, Henry is a reasonably priced gamble.
His Footballguys projection, RB13, is slightly off that top-eight prediction. Henry's RB11 ADP splits the difference.
Given his track record and remarkable offseason conditioning regimen, I'm willing to spend the 20th pick overall to find out if Henry is the ultimate NFL unicorn or not.
In dynasty formats, Henry's RB25 Footballguys Consensus Dynasty Ranking makes him a fantastic one-year rental.
A Fresh Start
Evans spent his first 12 seasons with Tampa Bay, building a Hall of Fame career and helping the Bucs to a 2020 Super Bowl title. Until injuries derailed his 2025 campaign, Evans' streak of 11 straight seasons with 1,000-plus receiving yards was tied with Jerry Rice for the longest in NFL history and the longest ever to begin a career.
His 108 career TD catches rank 10th all-time (sixth most with one franchise).
Both the touchdowns and Evans' 13,052 receiving yards are the most among active receivers who have spent their entire careers with the same team.
As NFL.com noted, entering the offseason, the only players to change teams after having 100-plus receiving touchdowns with one franchise were Rice and Cris Carter.
Evans makes it a trio . . .
As for last season's issues, hamstring and collarbone injuries forced him to miss nine games. He had career lows in catches (30) and yards (368). Fantasy investors got one weekly fantasy finish better than 23rd and none better than 11th.
Rebound Coming?
San Francisco has a need.
The 49ers' wide receiver room will undergo significant changes this offseason. The team has already acknowledged it will part ways with veteran Brandon Aiyuk, while Kendrick Bourne and Skyy Moore signed with new teams as free agents.
Jauan Jennings, also an unrestricted free agent, remains unsigned, but there are no indications he'll return to San Francisco.
Is This a Good Fit?
Adding Evans gives San Francisco a big body to pair with Pearsall and slot Demarcus Robinson.
According to SI.com's Grant Cohn, a healthy Evans will be the 49ers' go-to guy in the passing game. And he'll be a good fit with Purdy, who thrives throwing to big receivers over the middle.
USA Today's Christian D'Andre agrees, suggesting Purdy needs a reliable presence on big downs, especially with Kittle on the wrong side of 30 and rehabbing a torn Achilles.
As long as Evans is healthy, that's exactly who he is.
The Price is Right
Evans sits at WR32 on the initial Footballguys projections, which mirrored his early ADP.
That's changing, however. In Clayton Gray's latest look at Underdog ADP Movement, we can see Evans' price is rising, and he's now WR22.
Remember, his recent history when healthy has been notable.
Evans finished as WR12 in 2024. He was WR7 in 2023. Assuming a full season of work, it's not unreasonable to think there's room for upside at his current price.
In dynasty, the price is better.
Evans is WR53 on our Footballguys Consensus Dynasty Rankings. Adding him as a depth piece is an opportunity to leverage that upside.
Adams Isn't Going Away
Head coach Sean McVay acknowledged that the Rams explored trading wide receiver Davante Adams but ultimately decided it wasn't in the team's best interest.
"If we felt like it was best for our team, we would have done that," McVay said last month. "But we didn't think it was best for our team."
McVay said he has talked to Adams about the possible trade discussions and believes the receiver understands why they took place.
"He's a grown man, and I think he understood that this is a part of this business," McVay said. "But I think what he also understood is at the end of the day, you're a Ram because this is what's best, and I'm excited to move forward with him."
That's Understandable
Scoring while inside the 20-yard line was a problem for the Rams a few years ago. That is why they made it a priority to land Adams in free agency last offseason.
McVay knew that by getting Adams, he would have a real threat inside the red zone and a veteran player who knows how to get in the end zone when it matters most.
Adams is one of the best at doing that in the NFL right now, and he proved it again last season by leading the wide receiver position in touchdowns for the third time in the past six seasons. He finished the year with 14 scoring grabs, despite missing three games.
His 27 end-zone targets were nine more than any other player.
He now ranks second in that category (148) and in TDs from scrimmage (117) since entering the league in 2014.
The Broader Impact
His presence opened different things for other players on the Rams offense.
Puka Nacua benefited most from having Adams on the field at the same time. Defenses had to pick their poison with who they wanted to double up and who they wanted to leave one-on-one. And Adams and Nacua would make teams play if they were in zone coverage.
Both were wildly successful in fantasy, with Nacua finishing as WR1 and Adams as WR9.
It marked Adams' ninth top-10 campaign in his past 10 seasons.
Looking Ahead
As Clay pointed out, the 33-year-old Adams isn't targeted as much as in years past. His 24 percent target share in 2025 was his lowest since 2016, but is there any reason to believe he won't continue to thrive working under McVay and alongside Nacua and Matthew Stafford?
Well, we should be mindful of the possibilities.
Even with one of the best tandems at wideout in the NFL, and despite using 13 personnel (three tight ends on the field) at a high rate, ESPN.com's Sarah Barshop contends the Rams still need a dependable third pass-catcher. In an offense that requires versatility in its receivers, the Rams could add to the stable with an early pick in this week's draft.
The chatter about that possibility might explain why Adams has fallen five spots in the latest Underdog ADP, and he's being drafted as WR27 in Round 4.
That's irresistible value to me.
And if it's hard to pass up on that upside in redraft, his WR39 Footballguys Consensus Dynasty Ranking is also well inside the affordable one-year rental range.
Last Man Standing
This offseason for the Ravens has a lot of storylines dominating the headlines, but an underrated one that isn't getting nearly as much attention is at tight end.
Isaiah Likely followed Harbaugh to New York, signing with the Giants as a free agent. Third-string tight end Charlie Kolar, a great blocking asset and capable enough receiver, signed with the Chargers.
That leaves Mark Andrews as the lone standout at the position.
The club inked backup Durham Smythe, who caught four passes last season in Chicago, but at this point, it's all Andrews.
That's Worth Something
Last week, the 30-year-old, coming off a career-low 422 yards on 48 catches with five touchdowns in 2025, told reporters he is confident he can still lead the way.
"I feel like we've had a great room in the years past, and [I have] always felt like that guy," Andrews said. "I don't think that ever changes. So, that's an interesting question. But I think that for (Likely), I'm excited for him and his opportunity. I'm excited for Charlie and his opportunity. I'm going to continue to get better and grow my game, and I think there's going to be a lot of opportunities in this offense."
The lack of depth in the Ravens' tight end room makes them a prime candidate to pluck a rookie from what is considered a deep draft class.
Regardless of who is added in the coming months, Andrews still projects to be Jackson's security blanket from the position.
That's Worth Even More
The chemistry between Jackson and Andrews is evident in their combined production over 108 games: 414 receptions, 5,143 receiving yards, and 54 touchdowns.
They hold a 72-36 record in games where both Andrews and Jackson play.
The peak came in 2021, when Andrews had one of the greatest ever for a tight end. He finished with 107 catches, 1,361 yards, and nine touchdowns.
He scored a position-high 297 fantasy points.
How Can We Leverage It?
Andrews' TE10 Footballguys projection is noticeably ahead of the veteran tight end's TE16 ADP. The disconnect between his projection and price is an opportunity for sharp managers who are willing to take on the risk that comes with a player who'll be 31 when the season starts.
As Footballguy Jason Wood put it, "There's no scenario where Jackson delivers on his top-5 ranking, and Andrews isn't a fantasy starter."
For what it's worth, Andrews is TE21 on our Consensus Dynasty Rankings.
He's a cheap one-year option for those looking to back up a still-unproven younger tight end who has a great longer-term outlook . . .
This and That: Around the NFL Edition
We have a few stories worth following and/or watching for as Thursday's NFL Draft draws nearer . . .
