Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Planning Ahead
Whether it's the coming NFL Draft, free agency, coaching changes, or other emerging stories, this is a great time of year for fantasy managers.
It's an opportunity to get ahead of the competition.
Paying attention to what's going on is more than many of your leaguemates are doing this time of year. But even better is taking it a step further by making plans.
Not hard and fast plans. Things are going to change between now and our drafts.
But running through possible scenarios based on current headlines is a great way to start thinking about your drafts.
This is the window where information turns into advantage.
Let's work through an example from this month . . .
Cause for Concern?
As we head into the 2026 season, it's fair to ask what the heck is up with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles?
The passing attack has fallen into slumps at times over the past several seasons, forcing the most expensive offensive roster in football (the Eagles committed $247 million to that side of the ball in 2024, over $45 million more than the next closest team) to become overly reliant on the success of Saquon Barkley and the ground game.
It has been an ongoing source of angst for some internally -- most publicly expressed by star receiver A.J. Brown, the subject of trade talks this offseason.
Some of that growing frustration in 2025 was directed at Hurts, team sources told ESPN.com's Tim McManus, including by Brown, whose long-standing relationship with the quarterback has been tested over their four years in Philadelphia.
In an article published last week, McManus advised readers that close observers point to a lack of creativity and synergy in the Eagles' attack. Though there is plenty of blame to spread, Hurts has had a hand in the offense becoming "calcified," several team sources who spoke to McManus on condition of anonymity said.
Apparently, Hurts' "strong preferences" and "push back" on changes that would diversify the offense are among the reasons that he is part of the explanation for the calcification.
Why Are We Hearing This?
As Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio suggested, McManus' "curiously timed" report seemed to be a message.
And the message has reportedly been received.
That's the assessment from Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
McLane's latest written assessment of the situation contains this quote from an unnamed Eagles source regarding Hurts: "He knows this is the last year of his guaranteed money. He knows the cat's out on some of his baggage. You've got to be able to produce. You can't be near the bottom of the league in passing two years in a row with the amount of talent that we have. It's not acceptable. . . .
"And it's everybody saying it -- from [owner] Jeffrey [Lurie] on down. Everybody is on the same page."
What It Means
Hurts is on notice. Coach Nick Sirianni, as Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes explained, could be on notice, too.
Five solid seasons, including two Super Bowl berths and one Lombardi Trophy, guarantee nothing.
And that's why change is coming . . . Again.
New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion, who replaces Kevin Patullo, is implementing a system more in the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan mold -- a scheme that leans into motion and under-center play-action, two facets Hurts and the Eagles have not embraced under Sirianni.
It sets up a dynamic in which the Super Bowl 59 MVP will be forced to adapt to strengthen his future in Philadelphia.
Hurts has led the Eagles to impressive heights. He has persevered through constant offensive staffing changes and has established a standard in the building with what coaches and teammates have described as a world-class work ethic.
That said, the Eagles have failed to give Hurts the level of consistency he has said he "yearns" for, knowing that it can "breed excellence."
To that point, Mannion will be Hurts' sixth playcaller since the QB entered the league in 2020 . . .
Continuity Matters
The one time Hurts enjoyed some continuity was with Shane Steichen in 2021 and '22, and it resulted in an MVP-caliber season for the quarterback and the team going 14-1 in games he started on the way to an appearance in Super Bowl LVII.
It's been hit-and-miss with coordinators since. In fact, every other year has been a hit.
A source close to Hurts told McManus the QB needs coaches who will "check him," opining that Hurts had "too many 'yes' people around him" this past season.
Perhaps the 33-year-old Mannion, who played the position as recently as 2021, can be that guy . . .
Again, There Are No Guarantees
The scheme-change undertaking promises to be the most involved of Hurts' professional career, and will serve as the latest, most significant test of his adaptability and willingness to grow.
But as Footballguy Sigmund Bloom suggested last week, multiple cracks are showing in the Eagles' offense, and we shouldn't assume things will get significantly better under Mannion.
Adding to that, Hurts, whose running ability kept defenses honest and freed up more space for Saquon Barkley in 2024, set a career low in 2025 in carries (105) and rushing yards (421) since taking over as the full-time starter in '21.
Without big Barkley runs to keep safeties in the box, Hurts often had to try to win games with his arm, with mixed results.
As a result, the 28-year-old tossed a career-high 25 touchdowns, but his rushing production was way down (105-421-8 after delivering at least 139 carries, 605 yards and 10 TDs in each of the prior four seasons).
Hurts' fantasy production dipped, as his 19.2 points-per-game average was his lowest as a starter and ranked seventh at the position after three straight top-five campaigns.
It's not clear if that was an outlier or the start of a trend, but it's not hard to find people who believe it's the latter.
"Hurts isn't considered an elite fantasy quarterback anymore," Bloom wrote, "and his ADP will drop if the team trades Brown this offseason, as many expect."
Declining? Or Just More Volatile?
Hurts might not be elite now, but he's delivered elite production -- QB2 and QB3 finishes in 2023 and 2022, respectively -- in the not-so-distant past.
In addition, aside from his rookie season, Hurts has finished in the top 10 at his position for six straight seasons. That's a solid history of high-end production, with a portion of it coming despite play-calling and supporting cast-related issues over the course of time.
What if Brown is traded?
Brown's leaving would make DeVonta Smith a top-10 candidate overnight, and the Eagles could build the passing game around Smith, an early-round rookie wideout, free-agent addition Marquise Brown, former Packer Dontayvion Wicks (acquired in a trade on Friday), and Dallas Goedert.
Given all that, Hurts' current QB6 Average Draft Position (ADP) isn't unreasonable. It's by no means a bargain, either.
Will the negative reporting change that? Depends on your platform. He's dropped three spots to QB7 in DraftKings Best-Ball ADP over the last month.
Nonetheless, his current Footballguys QB3 projection is more bullish than ADP.
Footballguys staffer Jason Wood, who is part of our projection team, notes, "The new OC is a risk, but the roster talent and organizational commitment are second to none."
With a wide range of variables widening the range of possible outcomes, it's time to talk about how we can . . .
Mitigate the Risk
So is there risk? Yes.
We can all acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding Brown, the installation of a new scheme, and Hurts' diminished rushing totals last year.
Is it untenable?
With Hurts costing a fifth-round pick, your level of interest is going to depend on your risk tolerance levels.
The great thing about fantasy football is the various paths to success -- an array of options available that might soothe our concerns -- or allow us to leverage the concerns of others that we don't share.
I have examples.
They aren't the only alternatives, but here are three archetypes that fit the bill . . .
Similar Upside, Slightly Better Price
A quick review is in order here: When the Jaguars drafted Trevor Lawrence first overall in 2021, they saddled him with Urban Meyer as a head coach. Meyer didn't even last one season before Darrell Bevell replaced him for the rest of that year.
Lawrence then spent three years being coached by Doug Pederson, who was better than Meyer but never helped Lawrence reach the level of play he was expected to.
Last year, Liam Coen became the Jaguars' head coach, and it was Jacksonville's most promising season in Lawrence's career. Coen thinks Lawrence's growth has only just begun.
Coen recently said on SiriusXM NFL Radio that Lawrence's performance last season was just the beginning, as Lawrence will have the stability in Coen's offense he hasn't had to this point in his career.
"Four new systems, multiple different head coach situations, OCs, whatever it is," Coen said. "There is so much room to continue to improve . . . I'm really excited about working with Trevor again this year."
Should We Share in that Excitement?
As ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco recently explained, one of the main reasons the Jaguars hired Coen was because of the work he did with Baker Mayfield on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024, helping the 2018 No. 1 pick produce the best season of his career.
Mayfield finished fifth in fantasy points per game (21.6) that season.
Jacksonville owner Shad Khan wanted the same with Lawrence, who struggled to live up to his No. 1 pick hype after being dubbed a generational prospect coming out of Clemson.
Moving Past the Struggles
Lawrence finished the 2025 season having completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 4,007 yards and a career-high 29 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions.
He also recorded career highs in carries (82), rushing yards (359), and rushing touchdowns (nine).
His 38 total touchdowns were third-best in the NFL.
He made strides as he got more comfortable in Coen's offense.
Setting the Trajectory
The Jaguars won eight consecutive games to close out the regular season and win the AFC South title before a wild-card playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills ended their year.
That eight-game stretch saw Lawrence score 24 total touchdowns, 19 of them through the air with just five interceptions, and Jacksonville averaged an NFL-best 33.6 points per game.
He reeled off seven consecutive top-10 fantasy outings to finish the season.
As a result, Lawrence, who finished the season as QB4 with 342.2 fantasy points, was QB1 overall from Weeks 10 through 17.
In other words, elite production.
Will It Carry Over?
I'm a believer.
Lawrence seems all but certain to be a high-volume passer and rusher after finishing in the top 10 among QBs in pass and rush attempts in each of his four full seasons.
Going into his second season with Coen lends further confidence, as does a deep group of talented pass catchers who have already demonstrated their chemistry with the QB.
You can land him in the sixth round as QB9.
While that's two spots ahead of his QB11 Footballguys projection, I'm more bullish.
Lawrence goes into the season as QB4 on my own Footballguys rankings -- two spots ahead of Hurts.
Given the circumstances, I'll bet on the trajectory and take this discount without hesitation . . .
Cheaper, But Still With Ample Upside
Matthew Stafford arguably had the best season of his career in 2025, winning his first MVP award en route to leading the Rams to the NFC Championship Game.
Stafford, who went as QB25 in fantasy drafts last summer, completed 65 percent of his passes as he led the league with 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns while passing for eight interceptions.
As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, he delivered nine top-10 fantasy weeks, tied for the third most at the position.
He was good for the Rams and better for fantasy investors as he finished the year as QB2 (in total points and points per game) overall.
It was his first top-10 finish since 2019, and his lack of rushing equity can be a limiting factor -- Stafford has 65 or fewer rushing yards in five straight seasons and one rushing touchdown since 2017.
But elite outcomes are still possible . . .
Some Would Even Say Likely
Stafford, whose QB15 Footballguys projection is the same as his current ADP, is being drafted in the eighth round. That's a reasonable value.
Better still, Stafford still has receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and a strong offensive line at his disposal, so another big passing season is possible.
That's enough to keep him in the QB1 conversation.
Want Another?
You could make similar arguments for Detroit's Jared Goff.
Like Stafford, Goff has a strong supporting cast in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta. He's finished inside the top 10 in each of the last four seasons, but is being drafted as QB17.
Both Stafford and Goff will have new offensive coordinators this year, but that's not the factor in Los Angeles, where McVay remains the play-caller, as it is with former Cardinals coordinator Drew Petzing taking over as play-caller in Detroit.
Stafford is available in Round 8; Goff in Round 9 . . .
Steeper Discounts, Potentially Greater Upside
There are other options that, due to their much lower prices, give us even more flexibility in how we can approach a player like Hurts.
You may be worried, but still willing to take a chance based on his strong track record as the Eagles' starter.
How about mitigating the risk with a QB2 with upside based on new or changing circumstances?
Banking on the Run
We all know how important rushing equity can be for quarterbacks. According to Fantasy Life's Ian Hartitz, since 2014, 31 out of 34 quarterbacks -- more than 90 percent -- who reached 100 or more rushing attempts in a season finished as a top-12 fantasy QB on a points-per-game basis.
Kyler Murray, heading into his first season with the Vikings after signing as a free agent in March, is one of five players in NFL history to throw for more than 20,000 yards and run for more than 3,000 yards in their seven seasons.
Before last season, Murray had finished each of his first six NFL seasons as a top-12 fantasy QB on a points-per-game basis.
He's thrown for 121 touchdowns and 60 interceptions in seven seasons.
The former Arizona Cardinals QB also has 32 rushing touchdowns.
In the five seasons he's played more than eight games, Murray has averaged 91.8 carries a year. He's also averaged just over 456 rushing yards and 4.5 touchdowns on the ground per season.
But his QB2 2020 campaign (he ran for 891 yards and 11 touchdowns on 133 carries) demonstrates how high his rushing ceiling could be.
Murray is available as QB16 in Round 8.
Too rich for your blood?
With new Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan both coming from Green Bay, it was no surprise they made a beeline for Packers backup quarterback Malik Willis in free agency.
Willis has played well when his number has been called over the past two seasons. He played at least 80 percent of the snaps in three games with Green Bay and averaged 23.3 fantasy points in those outings.
In those three contests, Willis averaged seven carries, nearly 60 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown per game.
Over a 17-game season, that pace would easily exceed 100 rushing attempts.
While the Dolphins need to add some talent at wideout after trading Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos last month, we shouldn't overlook Willis' impressive passing numbers in Green Bay -- he completed 70 of 89 passes for 972 yards, six TDs, and zero INTs.
Isn't he risky, too?
Sure. But that risk is mitigated by the cost. Drafting Willis as a second option at the position, at his current QB20 ADP in the 10th round, could yield huge dividends.
And mitigating risk, however we employ it, is a good tactic . . .
This and That: More Quarterback Stuff Edition
Hurts wasn't the only quarterback in the news. There have been several quarterback-related stories in recent weeks, so let's catch up . . .
