Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
It's Go Time!
It's a tradition like no other. The end of the NFL Draft signals the official start of the 2026 fantasy football season.
I know. I've been drafting in best ball and Dynasty (yes, I draft in a league where our rookie draft is before the NFL Draft) and writing about the resulting values in this space for two months now. But now that the selection process is behind us and everybody has a helmet, we have the information we need to start dialing in projections, tweaking our rankings, and fine-tuning our strategies.
We also have a much better understanding of what teams really think.
Draft Capital Does Not Lie
There can be no hiding or prevaricating when picks are made. We know exactly what teams think about each prospect.
The goal of this week's Fantasy Notebook is to assess the truths told by the draft capital invested, the landing spots involved, the offensive schemes, and the competition the incoming prospects will face -- and determine how those circumstances impact a player's fantasy fortunes and our approaches to drafting them in our leagues.
Looking for a deeper dive and more immersive experience? We have that.
You'll find Fantasy Outlook instant reaction articles for all the relevant skill players selected (I also link to pertinent pieces on players included below) with comprehensive breakdowns of their potential impact and how the newcomers might change the values of those around them.
On Wednesday, we'll release the Rookie Draft Guide Version 3.0, fully updated with Fantasy Outlooks, team depth charts, and other new information not found in Version 2.0.
With the formalities out of the way, let's dive into this year's Draft Day Truths . . .
The Surest Thing
Arizona selected former Notre Dame star Jeremiyah Love with the third pick, making him the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018.
Love will join a Cardinals offense that is getting revamped under new head coach Mike LaFleur, who is bringing a West Coast-style scheme to the desert.
Love became the immediate betting favorite to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Various sportsbooks have pegged the odds at anywhere between +200 and +300, but he is the consensus top choice on the day after the draft.
It's understandable.
Love is coming off a season in which he ran for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns, which ranked eighth and third in the country, respectively. He eclipsed 100 yards in six of his 14 games, reaching 228 in Week 8 against USC. He also rushed for 94 yards in two other games.
Setting Expectations
Love is an impressive talent who will make plays both running the ball and as a receiver out of the backfield, perhaps even lining up at wide receiver in some formations.
Fantasy investors will view him as the top rookie in this year's class. And rightly so. He arrives in Arizona as the presumed starter, sharing a backfield with veteran James Conner, Trey Benson, and Tyler Allgeier, who was signed as a free agent in March.
The Cardinals didn't really have an identity on that side of the ball last season; the team's running backs failed to deliver a single 100-yard rushing performance.
To those worried this isn't an ideal spot due to a crowded depth chart, an unproven coach, and the general organizational malaise that helps explain the Cardinals having just one season with a winning record since 2015, I'd suggest the other likely landing spots -- Tennessee, the New York Giants, and Washington Commanders -- aren't much different.
Nor are they impressive offenses at the moment.
But in fantasy football -- especially at running back -- volume matters.
Love's initial post-draft Footballguys projection has him at RB10 based on a workload that includes 225 carries, 60 catches, and 10 total touchdowns.
Getting Past the Concerns
We'll start with the depth chart. As noted, Love will be an immediate starter and play the lead role. Those worried about him losing touches to Conner, Allgeier, or Benson must realize every team has depth at the position. Conner will turn 31 next month and is coming off a season-ending foot injury suffered in Week 3 last year.
Benson was never able to return from an MCL repair last year, and it's not clear what his status is heading into OTAs.
And Allgeier?
We've seen this before, in Atlanta. But I'll remind you that the Falcons' backfield wasn't a true timeshare in 2025, as Bijan Robinson outsnapped Allgeier 860 to 328. Robinson finished the season as RB2 overall, even with Allgeier scoring a career-high eight touchdowns.
Questions about the coaching staff and supporting cast remain.
Footballguy Matt Waldman isn't worried.
Ashton Jeanty went to a Raiders team without a QB, with an offensive coordinator who was out of his depth, and an offensive line "where the blocking was the worst I have seen from an NFL team in years," with multiple mistakes on a regular basis.
Jeanty was still a top 15 fantasy back.
One difference between Love and Jeanty is, as ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. noted, "LaFleur is going to line up Love in the backfield and let him break home runs with his 4.36 speed. He's going to get Love in the slot and also out wide as a dynamic pass catcher."
The Truth
In his Love Fantasy Impact and 2026 Outlook instant reaction, Footballguy Dave Kluge wrote, "Considering the projected workload and athleticism, Love shouldn't fall too far in drafts. He'll likely settle in as an early second-round pick."
If you're worried that might be close to his ceiling, that's no different than any RB1.
The Second Surest Thing?
After their attempts to trade out of the first round fell through, the Seahawks stayed put and found their replacement for Ken Walker III by drafting running back Jadarian Price at No. 32.
Although he was the final player selected on Day 1, it's not a stretch to believe Price benefits from the best landing spot of the bunch.
There's plenty to like about Price, including his fit in the outside-zone rushing scheme the Seahawks will continue to lean on under new coordinator Brian Fleury.
Running back was easily the Seahawks' biggest need with Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet recovering from knee surgery.
As Footballguy Jeff Blaylock explained in his Fantasy Impact and 2026 Outlook instant reaction, Price lacks the high-end rushing stats of a typical first-round running back largely because he played behind Love at Notre Dame.
While he never rushed for more than 746 yards in a season, Price averaged 6.0 yards per rush across his three years as a Golden Domer. According to ESPN.com's Brady Henderson, that suggests Price can bring an explosive element to Seattle's offense despite a good-but-not-great 40-yard dash time of 4.49 seconds.
What's a Realistic Workload?
Henderson contends Price figures to be Seattle's co-RB1 in a backfield that might utilize three runners. With Charbonnet likely to miss much of the season, the Seahawks signed Emanuel Wilson to give them a power runner, while George Holani has a skillset that could fit a third-down role.
In other words, Seattle isn't asking him to make the jump from backup to high-volume starter.
According to Blaylock, another concern for fantasy managers will be Price's lack of receiving work in college. He had 15 career receptions at Notre Dame. "If he remains a two-down back," Blaylock wrote, "his value will be capped, particularly in PPR formats."
That might explain why, despite the favorable landing spot and Day-1 draft capital, Price's initial post-draft Footballguys projection is RB37. Our team expects 191 carries, 830 rushing yards, and five touchdowns. His projected receiving numbers, 17 catches for 115 yards, are a limiting factor.
The Truth
Thanks to that crowded backfield and uncertain passing role, it will be understandable if redrafters dial back a bit.
But Price's Footballguys projection works out to 16 touches per game, and, as Sports Illustrated's Michael Fabiano suggested, the rookie could provide RB2 value and be a top-50 pick in redraft leagues.
Tale of the Tate
The Titans selected receiver Carnell Tate with the No. 4 overall pick. He became the highest-selected receiver in Titans history, beating 2017 No. 5 pick Corey Davis.
The Titans had a huge need at wide receiver, and Tate, who played at Ohio State, fits the bill.
He was widely considered the best receiver in the class.
Tate appeared in 39 games for the Buckeyes with 23 starts. He caught 51 passes for 875 yards with nine touchdowns in 2025, playing 11 games. He missed three games with a leg injury.
In all, he caught 121 passes for 1,872 yards with 14 touchdowns in his collegiate career.
Tate led the country with five receiving touchdowns with a throw depth of 40-plus yards in 2025, per Pro Football Focus. Per PFF, he also led the Big 10 with six receiving touchdowns on contested targets.
Now, Tate is on his way to Nashville, where he will be a top weapon for last year's No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Cam Ward.
What Is That Worth?
According to ESPN.com's Matt Bowen, we should look for Tate to play the Z receiver spot in Tennessee (although he's capable of handling the X role as well), giving Ward a perimeter target with newly signed Wan'Dale Robinson working out of the slot.
Remember, the Titans were tied with the Raiders and Jets for last in the league with three completions of 40 yards or more. Tate caught five touchdown passes of at least 40 yards last season.
It's no secret that Ward likes to push the ball down the field. Tate is more than capable of winning on contested catches, all of which should generate more big plays for a passing game that desperately needs to improve in that category.
We expect to see that improvement.
Tate's initial post-draft Footballguys projection has him at WR33 with 73 catches, 976 yards, and six touchdowns.
That feels right, but as Bowen suggested, Tate has the upside to finish as a top-25 wide receiver under the Titans' new playcaller, Brian Daboll.
The Truth
In order to maximize Tate's talents, Ward will have to prove his late-season run -- he tossed eight touchdowns and just one interception over his final four games -- last year was no fluke.
He was QB14 over that span.
As Footballguy Jeff Bell noted in his Fantasy Impact and 2026 Outlook instant reaction, "Tate and Ward are now intertwined. The best-case comparison is Ja'Marr Chase joining Joe Burrow."
Even if you're not sure Ward will rise much higher than his current level, Dynasty investors shouldn't hesitate to make Tate the second skill player off the board after Love. In redraft, Footballguy Dan Hindery expects Tate to be drafted in fifth-round territory. That feels about right to me.
Saints Keep Marching In
Tyler Shough has an exciting new target. The Saints selected Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson with the No. 8 pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
As Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith noted, Shough had said before the draft that he'd love to see the Saints select a wide receiver, and they've given him his wish.
The Saints picked a player at a position of top need, but the move isn't without risk.
Tyson has an extensive injury history. He did not run at the Scouting Combine or Arizona State's Pro Day while recovering from a hamstring injury. He did, however, work out for NFL teams last week and, from all accounts, looked great.
Tyson also tore his ACL as a freshman at Colorado, and after transferring to Arizona State, he broke his collarbone.
According to ESPN.com's Katherine Terrell, Tyson is aware of the injury concerns but said that he will do everything in his power to stay on the field this season, including hiring several people who can help take care of his body.
When healthy, he's a dynamic playmaker who could be a great addition to an NFL team.
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah characterizes Tyson as an explosive receiver with a lot of "wow" plays littered throughout his tape. He is a very fluid mover, and he incorporates a variety of releases and general creativity into his route-running. He has suddenness off the line and out of breaks down the field.
After the catch, he has some wiggle to make defenders miss and excellent speed to pull away.
The Role Matters
The Saints, who made multiple additions to their offense (including signing running back Travis Etienne Jr.) this offseason, admitted they are no longer "one player away" with a young quarterback at the helm, and they're looking for a cast of characters who can make Shough better.
Expect Tyson to be paired immediately with No. 1 wideout Chris Olave, who told Terrell he can't wait to play next to the rookie.
Tyson's initial post-draft Footballguys projection calls for a WR42 finish with 63 catches, 820 yards, and five touchdowns.
The Truth
According to Bell, we'll likely see Tyson going as a WR3 in redraft leagues, and as a long-term WR1 in Dynasty leagues. But the bigger point, as Fabiano noted, "Tyson's presence in the offense will make Shough an even bigger fantasy sleeper."
But this is more about the quarterback than the receiver -- at least early on. Remember, Shough, who was QB8 from Weeks 15 through 17 last year, is being drafted as QB20 in Round 10. Landing him as your QB2 would be a sharp way to leverage the influx of talent.
No Souring on Lemon
The Philadelphia Eagles made a trade with the division rival Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, selecting USC wide receiver Makai Lemon with the No. 20 pick in the NFL draft.
The addition of Lemon is yet another indication that A.J. Brown is likely to be traded at some point.
It's been widely reported that Brown is likely to be traded to the New England Patriots. The two sides have discussed a deal, but neither has been willing to commit to it until after June 1, when Brown's $40 million salary cap charge would be split between this year and next.
With the Eagles signing free agent wide receivers Marquise Brown and Elijah Moore and acquiring wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks in a trade with the Green Bay Packers this offseason, the arrival of Lemon adds to the growing body of evidence that the Brown trade is coming.
Lemon had 79 receptions for 1,156 yards and 11 touchdowns last season to earn All-America honors. He had 137 catches for 2,008 yards and 14 touchdowns in his college career. The 2025 Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation's top receiver, Lemon posted 150-plus receiving yards in four games this past season -- the most by a USC player since Drake London in 2021.
He emerged as one of the nation's top slot targets, posting 1,281 yards from there since 2024, but general manager Howie Roseman and coach Nick Sirianni believe Lemon can play both inside and outside at the next level.
"His ability to separate, insane ability to catch the ball in contested situations. I love his toughness," Sirianni said. "Insanely competitive, so there's a lot to like. Really excited that he's added to our roster."
Let's Say Brown Is Gone
Lemon will operate as the No. 2 opposite DeVonta Smith.
It's safe to say Lemon's initial post-draft Footballguys projection -- he sits at WR58 with 49 catches, 625 yards, and four touchdowns -- is based on a Brown-free roster in Philadelphia.
According to Bowen, the rookie should be viewed as a flex option with WR2 upside in redraft formats.
The Truth
In his Fantasy Impact and 2026 Outlook instant reaction, Bell contends Lemon will compete with tight end Dallas Goedert for second place in the team's target tree behind Smith. Bell added that Lemon might struggle to make a meaningful impact.
Smith, on the other hand, is in a great spot with Brown out and a Lemon working as a legitimate threat opposite him.
Browns Get Receiving Help, But . . .
The Browns selected wide receiver KC Concepcion with the No. 24 overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Concepcion caught 61 passes for 919 yards with nine touchdowns for Texas A&M last season, becoming a first-team All-SEC honoree. An impressive 49 percent of his yards last season came after the catch.
In his 38 collegiate games, Concepcion recorded 185 catches for 2,218 yards with 25 touchdowns.
He was Cleveland's second selection of the night, as the club drafted offensive tackle Spencer Fano at No. 9 overall.
But they weren't done adding pieces.
Cleveland selected receiver Denzel Boston out of Washington with the No. 39 overall pick in the second round of the 2026 draft.
Boston led the Huskies in receiving in each of the last two seasons, catching 63 passes for 834 yards with nine touchdowns in 2024 and 62 receptions for 881 yards with 11 TDs in 2025.
The Browns have now addressed two clear offensive needs in tackle and receiver.
What About the QB?
As I noted in a previous Fantasy Notebook, one year after calling the trade for Deshaun Watson a "big swing-and-miss," Browns owner Jimmy Haslam told a group of local reporters that Watson has a "great chance" and a "fresh start" with offensive-minded first-year coach Todd Monken.
The 30-year-old, who hasn't played since October of 2024, is now healthy and expected to compete with Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel to be the Browns' starting quarterback.
At the very least, Watson will get a legitimate shot here. At best, he's the early favorite to win the job.
What Does That Mean?
According to ESPN.com's Liz Loza, even with Cleveland's QB situation depressing Concepcion's stock, WR3 fantasy numbers are within his range of possible outcomes. How far behind him will Boston be? What will Jerry Jeudy's role be? And will all the wideouts tail tight end Harold Fannin Jr. this year?
Loza believes that Concepcion's playmaking ability figures to be featured by new coach Todd Monken, gifting the Browns' offense some much-needed dynamism.
In redraft, I won't be investing significant draft capital betting on any of Cleveland's receiving assets not named Fannin, who is currently being drafted as TE6 in Round 5. Running back Quinshon Judkins, with the 50th pick overall, is the only Cleveland skill player being drafted before Fannin.
Even with Concepcion and Boston coming on board, I don't see that changing.
The Truth
According to Footballguy Mike Kashuba, Concepcion's value is WR3 to WR5 in 2026. Kashuba considers Boston as a touchdown-dependent WR5 on a team that most won't expect to score many touchdowns.
