Insanity Predictions: The Gut Check No.686

Insanity? Everyone gives bold predictions: Matt Waldman raises the bar.

Matt Waldman's Insanity Predictions: The Gut Check No.686 Matt Waldman Published 09/09/2026

MAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Insanity

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

--Rita Mae Brown

That must be me because this is the column where I take bold swings and strike out repeatedly. Usually, it's f--ing ugly. Last year? Let's take a look...

Last Year's Insanity

McMillan played enough from the slot and earned enough mismatches without press coverage to deliver strong fantasy value. I'm glad to have been wrong about his usage. 

Diggs was WR16 with 85 catches, 1013 yards, and 4 scores. Boutte was WR50 with 33 catches, 551 yards, and 6 scores. No contest, but I still like the idea. 

Chubb earned 122 carries for 506 yards and 3 scores and averaged a half yard more per carry than Woody Marks, who the Houston Texans force-fed because they wanted to give Marks a chance to show what he could be for them long-term. Marks earned 196 attempts, 703 yards, and 3 scores. 

If the Texans weren't auditioning Marks for a bigger role and then decided to roll with a younger but upper-middle-class Chubb in 2026, Chubb would have easily earned 1,000 yards and maybe gotten close to 10 scores. Don't bother arguing with me; Chubb retired, and I'm still salty about it. 

Pat Freiermuth leads the receivers in receiving TDs? Huge miss. It wouldn't surprise me if I was a year early and betting on the wrong coach, but shame on me for trusting Arthur Smith with anything but a ground game.

DeAndre Hopkins was another huge miss. Now he's coaching receivers at Georgia Tech. Great receiver, great career, and John Harbaugh wasted Hopkins' time if there wasn't an injury-related reason Hopkins wasn't on the field more often. 

Caleb Williams was QB5 for the year. At least I didn't go 0-fer this year. This was the easiest call if you ask me. 

While Luther Burden III was WR48 in 2025, which technically qualifies in many leagues as a weekly fantasy option, let's drill down a little more. After Week 9, Burden was WR28. I'm desperate for another win, and considering that's half of a season, I'll take it. 

A 2-for-7 hit rate doesn't seem great, but when I'm taking home run swings, a .285 batting average is pretty good. Well, at least it was the last time I watched baseball, and that was when Mark McGwire and Frank Thomas were competing for a home run title in a strike-shortened season. 

Combine the past two years of calls, and I'm 3-for-10. I'll take a .300 batting average over that time with stances like these. 

Regardless, you must have a cornerback's mentality with bold calls. A good set of reps doesn't mean you're immune from getting burned with the next one. 

Insanity Call No. 1: Caleb Williams Throws 40 TDs With a 67% Accuracy Rate

I have Williams projected for 4,352 yards and 33 scores with 5 INTs and a 62.1 percent accuracy rate -- solid improvements from a year ago as a top-five fantasy QB. This improvement aligns with Jared Goff's steady statistical gains from his rookie year through Year Three, as well as his first year in the Ben Johnson offense in Detroit through Year Three with the Lions. 

It's not hard to see a ceiling where Williams hits on all cylinders at the same time Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III make big jumps at the same time. If this happens, the Bears could have two fantasy WR1s as producers in an offense that's multiple and the hardest unit to stop in the NFL. 

Ben Johnson already has a goal of being the 2020s version of the Greatest Show on Turf, which tells me Johnson believes he has the weaponry and scheme to make it happen. The last time a team had a strong scheme that was multiple to this degree with one of its tight ends a top-end receiver, we were looking at the 2011 New England Patriots.

Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez combined for 2237 yards and 24 scores as a tandem. Tom Brady threw for 5235 yards and 39 scores. 

I'm not projecting for that level of production from the Bears' tight ends, but I see a world where Loveland and Cole Kmet combine for 1700-1800 yards and 14-16 scores. With Chicago sporting Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, I don't think the Bears will need that ceiling of production from their tight ends for Williams to hit these numbers. 

Brady's best receivers were Wes Welker and Deion Branch. Neither were big-play scorers. The Patriots lacked a field stretcher in this offense. Burden and Odunze are versatile big-play options. So is Loveland. 

Insanity Call No. 2: Colston Loveland Is Fantasy's TE1 and a Top-10 WR

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