In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: if any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It can be a painful experience, even on good weeks. Week 4 was not a good week.
In fact, though I haven't gone back and double-checked, this might have been the worst week I've had since I started writing this column in 2024.
Let's sift through the ashes:
I was in on Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who was projected to finish Sunday's game against the Eagles as QB12 with 17.9 points. I thought that was conservative, so I made a more aggressive argument for a QB10 or better finish. Even with the Rams pulling off a come-from-behind win over the Eagles, Stafford didn't benefit. Instead, he finished as QB29 with just 9.7 points. A miss. ❌
I was out on Broncos QB Bo Nix, who was projected for a QB18 finish against the 49ers, with 16.9 points. I said Nix would fail to reach that QB18 mark. Congratulations to him on a QB17 finish (with 13.6 points) -- and no, I don't get half credit for the points being lower. Another miss. ❌
I was in on Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love, who was projected to finish as RB16 with 15 fantasy points. With the rookie fresh off a top-10 Week 3 finish against the Seahawks, the Giants looked like easy pickings for him. But the role we saw in Week 3 didn't persist. Love, who appeared to be bothered by a still-tender ankle, finished as RB40 with 6.5 points. Yet another miss. ❌
I was out on Cowboys RB Javonte Williams, who was projected to finish as RB11 (with 16.7 points) going up against a Houston defense that's been stout against the run. This was not me advocating a benching -- and thank goodness for that. Instead, I predicted Williams would fall outside RB1 territory. Three touchdowns later, Williams was RB2 on the week with 31.3 points. A massive miss. ❌
I was in on Packers WR Matthew Golden, who was projected for a WR21 finish with 13.9 points in a great matchup against the Buccaneers. Golden scored a touchdown, but was held to three catches for 21 yards, good for 11.7 fantasy points and a WR38 finish. Miss. ❌
I was out on 49ers WR Deebo Samuel Sr., who was projected to finish as WR26 with 12.7 fantasy points. Samuel, working as both a runner and receiver, was very effective. Enough so to finish as WR14 with 18 points. Missed again. ❌
I was in on Panthers TE Darren Waller, who was projected for a TE14 finish with 9.3 fantasy points in the most favorable tight end matchup possible. I said he would finish in TE1 territory. He turned six targets -- including one in the end zone -- into 6.6 fantasy points and a TE26 finish. A painful miss. ❌
I was out on Bills TE Dalton Kincaid, who was projected to finish this week as TE6 with 13.1 points going up against a Patriots defense that had allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position through four games. I said Kincaid would fall outside the top 10 in this one. Kincaid finished as TE51 with 1.7 points. He fell so far out of the top 10, I feel like I should get extra credit. Okay, not really. But I'll take the hit. ✅
As for my Outlier of the Week, I thought Cardinals WR Kendrick Bourne's WR63 projection (with 6.77 points) was an opportunity to highlight a player who's otherwise flying under the radar. I said he would land inside the top 50. He wound up as WR118 with zero points. Yeah. Zero. That's a miss. ❌
It was a horrible week, but it could have been worse. I could have been shut out. But 1-8 is bad, and I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe the fantasy gods who leveraged the usual week-to-week weirdness that's as much a part of the game as the pigskin.
Here's where we stand after Week 4:
Week 4: 1-8
Season: 12-15
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to finish at .500 or better on my predictions. This week's one-hit wonder leaves me at .444 on the season. I have work to do.
And with that, let's dive into Week 5.
Week 5 Picks At a Glance
In: Aaron Rodgers, Emanuel Wilson, Denzel Boston, Colston Loveland
Out: Brock Purdy, Ollie Gordon II, Christian Watson, Brenton Strange
Outlier to Watch: Antonio Williams
Quarterback
In: Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis
As Athlon Sports' Jobe Morrison suggested this week, Rodgers has had moments of brilliance through four games, but he's not off to a good start overall.
Rodgers has passed for 999 yards and seven touchdowns against four interceptions through four games.
But he's on pace for a career-low completion percentage while also approaching career highs in interceptions and sacks.
Needless to say, the early results under the new regime have been mixed.
But for our purposes? The last two weeks have been pretty good.
Rodgers has delivered 20-plus fantasy points in each of his last two games. He finished inside the top 10 at his position both weeks.
Part of it has come from increased efficiency when operating under center and getting Jaylen Warren involved in the running game. But some of the underlying numbers are also working in our favor. For example, Rodgers currently ranks seventh in pass attempts per game.
While it doesn't guarantee success, volume always matters in fantasy football. Scoring doesn't happen without opportunities.
Rodgers is also taking deeper shots. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, Rodgers has been at or above 10 air yards per attempt in three of four games this year. He didn't do that in a single game last year.
This week, Rodgers faces the Colts and their 29th-ranked pass defense. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II each scored at least 27 fantasy points against this defense in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively.
Bottom line: Rodgers' QB18 Footballguys projection (with 15.9 points) seems a bit conservative to me. I expect Rodgers to finish inside the top 15 this week.
Out: Brock Purdy, San Francisco @ Seattle
Here's your weekly reminder that my being out on a player doesn't mean you should bench them. Instead, it means I don't expect them to hit their projected numbers.
Purdy, of course, shouldn't be benched.
As NFL.com's Gennaro Filice noted, Purdy's off to an MVP-caliber start, having thrown an NFL-high 11 touchdown passes against just one interception (a pick that came on his third drive of the season). Better still, Purdy is currently the QB2 overall, averaging 25.1 points per game.
Some of that success has been due to great pass protection.
Four games in, the 49ers have yet to give up a sack. It's remarkable protection from the Trent Williams-led line, as no other team has allowed fewer than five sacks.
The Seahawks, boasting the league's fourth-highest pressure rate at 43.0 percent, will pose a challenge, however.
Their seemingly inexplicable 33-31 loss at home to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders notwithstanding, that pass rush is a big reason why the Seahawks have been a headache matchup for opposing quarterbacks.
They held each of Drake Maye, Jacoby Brissett, and Justin Herbert under 10 fantasy points while creating seven total turnovers against them. As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft notes, Purdy himself struggled against the Seahawks in their two meetings last season, scoring 21.96 total fantasy points while committing three turnovers.
As SI.com's Michael Hanich put it, "The Seahawks know how to get Purdy to throw interceptions and suppress him in a limited offense."
Bottom line: Purdy's Footballguys projection calls for a QB8 finish with 17.9 fantasy points. I still believe he's startable and offers a decent floor, but I expect Purdy to fall outside the top 10.