MISSION
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.
The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.
While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for over 20 years.
The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what University of Kentucky Assistant GM Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.
Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM.
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 4'S CLIFF'S NOTES
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the bullet points in this section.
The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes
- The Panthers have a balanced offense, and they are using Tetairoa McMillan well. Good news, fantasy GMs.
- Malik Nabers had a big game, but the film is a reminder that he's not really back as a weekly fantasy WR1.
- Carnell Tate had what people will call a breakout game, but Cam Ward is likely holding Tate back this year.
- Keon Coleman has a superpower that gives him fantasy starter upside, and Josh Allen leveraged it this week.
- David Montgomery isn't toast, but his fantasy value likely is this year.
- T.J. Hockenson is every bit the talent I remember out of Iowa, but he needs a true field general or Justin Jefferson to remain injured.
- Tyler Warren might deliver low-end fantasy TE1 value, but the film shows why it's limited to that tier.
- Austin Ekeler looked competent despite likely rust. He could threaten Jacory Croskey-Merritt's role.
- Daniel Jones isn't trustworthy and rarely has been. The carriage is back to being a pumpkin.
- Jameis Winston may insist he's the starter, but it's a semantic argument. He plays like a backup.
Note: If you see misspelled words/typos in the X posts, I'm rushing through these so I can deliver video content. Excuse the mess; we're working here...
1. Big Slot Tetairoa McMillan Is a Big Hit
Last year, Tetairoa was just outside the fantasy WR1 territory. The Panthers hoped to lean on McMillan as their primary wide receiver in its offense, but he's not a traditional WR like Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or even CeeDee Lamb.
Those three receivers can win timing routes against tight and physical man-to-man coverage. While those routes aren't the norm for every receiver, they are what separates elite production as an outside receiver from contributor or low-end starter value.
Last year, the Panthers manufactured a lot of McMillan's targets to get him wide open. When they occasionally matched him against a team's top cover corner playing press man, McMillan failed.
Jalen Coker's ability to win against press man gave Carolina some insight into what its offense could look like if they had 1-2 receivers other than McMillan who could win against tight man-to-man at the line.
Chris Brazzell II was supposed to join Coker as the other option. It's why the pivot to Darren Waller was a display of great problem-solving with limited means at their disposal when Brazzell got hurt.
Waller may be listed as a tight end, but he is a big receiver who can win against press. This is allowing Carolina to use McMillan inside at a high rate, and that places him at a matchup advantage while limiting his weaknesses as a route runner.
Tetairoa McMillan's 16 targets #Panthers vs #Lions - 9 as inside receiver at snap. Of the routes aligned outside at the snap: - 3 outs vs off man as outside WR - 1 screeen as outside WR breaking inside - 1 fade - 1 curl - 1 in-cut Best as a big slot and big boundary WR https://t.co/dFkLzl56uj
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 6, 2026
The Panthers used McMillan inside on 56 percent of his targets against the Lions. This technically isn't what you'll find with a site like PFF, which likely has him tracked as being aligned wide on 77 percent of his snaps in Week 4.
Here's the problem with that alignment tracking. They aren't tracking how that actually changes with pre-snap motion. They aren't tracking the alignment of his targets.
The alignments when not targeted aren't that meaningful. Alignments without showing how the motion before the snap changes everything also lack the real context of what's happening.
McMillan may have a rigid Poindexter definition of an outside receiver, but the strategic methods they are using to make him the inside receiver with motion show us that he's a big-slot option posing as an outside receiver.
You can call the color of the sky magenta for all I care, as long as McMillan is getting set up to be the inside receiver the way I showed above, he's a capable fantasy WR1 this year.
2. Malik Nabers Is Great, But His Knee Isn't, Yet.
Nabers' 100-yard afternoon will erase concerns for many casual fans and fantasy GMs because they think the stats tell the story. Nabers did several good things, but he'll need the Giants to treat him like Tetairoa McMillan - a limited route runner who does his best work against zone coverage, off-man, and the occasional contested catch.
This YOLO ball from Jameis Winston nearly allows th safety to make the play, but Malik Nabers is healthy enough to win this target. He might not be winning man-to-man timing routes, but he can still go up and get it. https://t.co/4wLGFuGmZo
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 5, 2026
If Malik Nabers can get more of these matchups, he can deliver fantasy value that's consistent this year while still in the process of healing for 2027 when his ability to snap off hard breaks is a work in progress. #giants https://t.co/xzvcFDVopk
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 5, 2026
The rest of Nabers' routes in this game were against zone, and he showed no real ability to drop the weight into sudden breaks. He can't run timing routes right now.
If Nabers' slot usage climbs during the year, we may see 100-yard games with enough frequency that Nabers delivers WR2 value. As of this week, he's WR28, averaging 11.6 yards per game.
If you can sell high on Nabers, this is the week to do it.