We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Washington Commanders Coin-Toss Questions:
- Do you expect Jayden Daniels to return to elite form under David Blough?
- Do you expect the Commanders to draft a running back who will instantly compete for touches?
- How would you rank Croskey-Merritt, White, and Ford if Washington doesn't add a tailback?
- Where do you expect Chig Okonkwo to finish this season?
- Do you expect the Commanders to add a WR2 to pair with Terry McLaurin?
Q: Do you expect Jayden Daniels to return to elite form (2024) under new OC David Blough?
Maurile Tremblay: There are reasons for optimism, but I wouldn't say I expect it. Blough spent two years as the assistant quarterbacks coach working directly with Daniels, so there's genuine rapport and familiarity with what makes him effective. His system appears deliberately tailored to Daniels' strengths, expanding under-center play, incorporating run-action principles, and drawing on some impressive schematic influences from Ben Johnson's play design and Kevin O'Connell's compressed splits. That said, Blough is a 30-year-old first-time play-caller. The 2025 offense fell to the bottom-third in scoring and dead last in third-down conversions. Some of that was due to Daniels missing 10 games across three separate injuries, but the structural problems were evident even when he played. Daniels' 2025 was wrecked by knee, hamstring, and elbow injuries that forced him in and out of the lineup four times before he was shut down entirely. Blough's scheme looks well-suited to Daniels, but betting on a return to 2024's elite level requires betting on health, a first-time OC, and an offensive line that was really bad last season. Daniels has a high ceiling, but you can't draft him as a fantasy QB1 given the durability questions and the unproven coordinator.
Jeff Haseley: Yes, Jayden Daniels is a big bounce-back candidate for 2026.
Meng Song: Daniels was averaging back-end QB1 fantasy production in his six fully healthy games last season, so it's not crazy to think he could return to elite fantasy production if he can find the end zone, especially on the ground. We don't really know anything about how David Blough will call plays in his first stint in this role, but I'd fade Daniels at his current QB3 ADP. That's extremely optimistic, even assuming he'll play all 17 games.
Andy Hicks: One thing Daniels will need to get back to his rookie-season form is confidence — both in his body and in his game. We won't know that until a few weeks into the season. I wouldn't like to gamble on him as my fantasy starter. One-season wonders, even if he only has two seasons so far, are common. I might sit this one out and be very conservative in projections.
VERDICT: Daniels is an elite fantasy quarterback if healthy.
Worrying about David Blough calling plays is as much an indication of how you view Kliff Kingsbury as anything. I don't think Kingsbury is an offensive accelerant in the way some might, and I applaud the Commanders for moving on from him despite the team's successes in 2024, when Kingsbury and rookie Jayden Daniels combined to field a top-5 offense. Daniels' risk-taking is a genuine concern, but let's not forget that nearly every top-end fantasy quarterback these days relies heavily on rushing stats. I can't in good conscience downgrade Daniels when Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson are also at the top of the positional rankings. We know Daniels is poised, accurate, capable of making throws to any part of the field, and a locker room leader. All he needs is a competent game plan and an above-average supporting cast. It's that final part that we still need to evaluate. Depending on how the rest of the offseason and draft unfold, we need to ensure the receiving corps and offensive line aren't problematic.
Q: Do you expect the Commanders to draft a running back who will instantly compete for touches?
Maurile Tremblay: I'd say it's unlikely, though not impossible. They signed Rachaad White as their presumed starter, added Jerome Ford as a complementary piece, re-signed Jeremy McNichols for depth, and still have Jacory Croskey-Merritt on the roster. That's four running backs already under contract, so the position seems adequately addressed heading into the draft.
Jeff Haseley: Yes. The current running back room in Washington is in dire need of an alpha back. I can see them trading out of their seventh position to accrue more picks and perhaps use one of them to draft a blue-chip running back. They don't have a second or fourth-round pick this year, so they could use some draft capital in the top 100-150.
Meng Song: Unless Jeremiyah Love falls to them at No. 7 overall, probably not.
Andy Hicks: Bringing in Rachaad White and Jerome Ford through free agency makes that a slim prospect. Maybe they use a late-round pick on another runner. Last year's seventh-round pick, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, was a revelation in camp and allowed the team to trade incumbent starter Brian Robinson Jr. He did well, but not enough to nail down the starting role. A three-headed committee of White, Croskey-Merritt, and Ford should do more than enough to confuse fantasy managers. Adding a rookie would make it even crueler.
VERDICT: I don't expect it, but it would be better if they did.
The Commanders' approach to the running back room is puzzling and one of my bigger worries about a significant bounce-back for the offense. I'd argue the decision to bring both Rachaad White and Jerome Ford aboard indicates they are not at all comfortable with Jacory Croskey-Merritt as the feature back. But neither White nor Ford is suited to playing a lead role, either. This speaks to a full-blown committee where backs have a set of sub-packages suited to their individual skills. On paper, having a versatile committee is fine. In practice, however, if your tailbacks aren't versatile enough to play multiple roles, opposing defenses will key on those personnel substitutions to shut things down. I would feel much better about my optimistic expectations for Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin if the Commanders used a draft pick to acquire one of the top five or six rookie running backs.
