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It's time to reflect on this season's fantasy football experience and figure out what (if anything) we learned that we can apply to improve our outcomes in the future. We'll break this down position by position. Today, wide receivers.
Lesson 1: Sam Darnold Meant More Than Kevin O'Connell's System
The most important quarterback lesson to get right in fantasy leagues in 2025 was that Sam Darnold is actually a good quarterback. That might have given you a bit of healthy skepticism about Justin Jefferson, who appeared to be quarterback-proof coming into this season. J.J. McCarthy proved that is not true in short order and Jefferson ended up being the biggest bust of 2025 drafts because we kept playing him after a short Carson Wentz stint gave us some hope. If you believed in Darnold, then taking Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the third round was more conceivable. Smith-Njigba was elite, finishing as WR2. Sam Darnold became a Super Bowl quarterback, getting his former general manager fired and his current offensive coordinator promoted to head coach in Las Vegas.
How to use this lesson in 2026
The Vikings are going to add a quarterback. In a dream scenario, it would be Daniel Jones, but he is likely to stay in Indianapolis. We'll have to judge if that quarterback can be at least as good as Carson Wentz when deciding whether to take Jefferson in the second round of fantasy drafts.
Lesson 2: The Fantasy WR2 Is Going Extinct
Nobody considered 2024 a banner year for fantasy wide receiver production, so keep that in mind when you see this year-over-year comparison of how many wide receivers surpassed these averages in PPR leagues.
- 16 PPR PPG: 2024 - 14 vs. 2025 - 8
- 15 PPR PPG - 2024 - 21 vs. 2025 - 11
- 14 PPR PPG - 2024 - 27 vs. 2025 - 14
That is stunning. A near-50% drop in wide receivers who meet these benchmarks represents a collapse. The discussion of how and why this happened is worth having, but way too complicated and nuanced to address in a 30,000-foot view article like this one.
This is the corresponding lesson to running backs being better picks than wide receivers in the early and middle rounds. If you felt frustrated at your wide receiver production in 2025, now you know why.
How to use this lesson in 2026
Wide receivers made up half of the picks in the first four rounds of 12-team leagues in 2024 and 2025. Early 2026 ADP does not show a major departure from this distribution. Wide receivers were once seen as a shelter from risk in the early rounds, but in 2025, they were the least reliable use of fantasy draft picks. It's a good idea to prioritize the wide receiver you have the highest confidence in to finish as a WR1 with one of your first two picks, but the other two picks should be running backs or Brock Bowers.
Lesson 3: Don't Expect to Find Good Fantasy WRs After the Top 6 Rounds
All of the top 17 wide receivers in PPR points per game went in the first six rounds of fantasy drafts. Wan'Dale Robinson was WR18, but his points per game average was almost exactly the same as WR29 in 2024 (Jakobi Meyers). If you wanted to get anything better than what was typical mid-WR3 production coming into 2025, you needed to take a wide receiver from the first six rounds. Not that they were especially good bets. You still only had about a 50% hit rate on getting one of those top 17 scorers if you took a wide receiver in the first six rounds.
How to use this lesson in 2026
It's probably an overreaction to punt WR2 and WR3 in your draft. That might require reaching for a running back that you have low confidence in or taking a QB/TE earlier than you wanted to. What you should do is remember how many different late-round or waiver-wire wide receiver options cycled through your lineup and consider that if 2026 is a repeat of 2025 in wide receiver production and distribution, you can deemphasize wide receiver in the mid rounds.
Lesson 4: Recognize WRs With Improved Surroundings
George Pickens was the biggest bang for your buck value on the wide receiver board after Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He gave us WR6 production at the expense of being the 22nd-drafted wide receiver. It wasn't a stretch to think that the Steelers' unimaginative offense featuring some of the worst quarterback play in the league was his problem in fantasy. Davante Adams' 2024 quarterback play might have been even worse than what Pickens dealt with in Pittsburgh. It wasn't a stretch to believe that Adams would have a revival in Sean McVay's offense. He gave us WR9 production for the cost of the 18th wide receiver drafted. Being drawn to two of the biggest hits at wide receiver was as simple as identifying who got the biggest bump at quarterback/offense.
How to use this lesson in 2026
Let's see if A.J. Brown is traded and where he lands. Deebo Samuel Sr. is going to be a free agent after a turbulent year for the Commanders' offense. DJ Moore is another possible trade name to track. His offense is good, and his quarterback is improving, but his role is limited by the structure and personnel of the offense. Brian Thomas Jr. is a more remote trade possibility than Moore, but like Moore, Thomas could get a big boost in his target share in a new home.