It's time to reflect on this season's fantasy football experience and figure out what (if anything) we learned that we can apply to improve our outcomes in the future. We'll break this down position by position. Today, running backs.
Quick Links: Quarterbacks (1/27) | Wide Receivers (2/4) | Tight Ends (1/28)
Lesson 1: The Top RBs Were Safer Than the Top WRs
In 2024, the top two running backs on the board were busts (Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall), but eight of the next nine - the rest of the players who went in the first or second round of fantasy drafts - finished in the top 11. It was seen as an outlier in a position considered more volatile. Early running backs can pay off big, but they were not seen as the position you choose to minimize risk in the early rounds. Not only did that trend continue in 2025, but the early-round wide receiver group was rife with landmines this season (more on that in the wide receiver installment, coming up tomorrow).
Eight of the top 10 backs on a PPR points per game basis were drafted in the first two rounds (which included 11 running backs, just as it did in 2024). The only misses were Bucky Irving (injury) and Saquon Barkley/Ashton Jeanty (underperforming offenses). All three of them were still in the top 20 in PPR points per game. The other two top-ten backs - James Cook and Kyren Williams - were in the top 14 backs drafted and off the board in the top 40. If you wanted consistent, impactful production at running back, you had to pay up for it.
How to use this lesson in 2026
An RB-RB start will be attractive, but just like in 2025, you can get top-end production from both running back spots in your lineup by waiting until the third round to take your RB2. Expect 10-12 backs to go off the board in the first two rounds again, with another rookie (Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love) likely to be a top 10 pick in the draft with Jeanty-level hype joining most of last year's top 10. Jeanty, Barkley, Hampton, and Ken Walker III will go in the second round of many drafts, but one or more will slip to the third round, in addition to Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, Breece Hall, and Irving. Third-round running backs will be attractive, so you can take your favorite WR/TE in the first or second round.
Lesson 2: The Middle Rounds Also Favored Running Backs
We can sort mid-round running backs into two very simple groups: the last ten running backs who were the first taken from their teams, and the first ten running backs that were the second running back taken from their team. These groups comprise most of the running backs taken in the RB22-RB45 range of drafts, which spanned the 6th-12th round range.
Last Ten RB1s (in final ADP order): D'Andre Swift (CHI), Isiah Pacheco (KC), Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN), Kaleb Johnson (PIT), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS), Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX), Joe Mixon (HOU), Javonte Williams (DAL), Quinshon Judkins (CLE)
That group yielded four hits (Swift, Etienne, Williams, Judkins) - a 40% hit rate
First Ten RB2/RB3s (in final ADP order): David Montgomery (DET), Jordan Mason (MIN), Jaylen Warren (PIT), Zach Charbonnet (SEA), JK Dobbins (DEN), Cam Skattebo (NYG), Tank Bigsby (JAX), Rhamondre Stevenson (NE), Bhayshul Tuten (JAX), Brian Robinson Jr (SF)
That group also yielded four hits (Warren, Dobbins, Skattebo, Stevenson)
For comparison sake, here are the next ten wide receivers that went after Swift, spanning WR40-WR49 and only the 7th/8th round: Jerry Jeudy (CLE), Jakobi Meyers (LV/JAX), Jordan Addison (MIN), Jauan Jennings (SF), Khalil Shakir (BUF), Josh Downs (IND), Jayden Reed (GB), Keon Coleman (BUF), Michael Pittman Jr (IND), Jayden Higgins (HOU)
None of them finished in the top 25 at wide receiver, and only three finished in the top 40.
How about tight ends? The ten that went off of the board after Swift (7th-10th round range): Sam LaPorta (DET), TJ Hockenson (MIN), Tyler Warren (IND), Travis Kelce (KC), Mark Andrews (BAL), Evan Engram (DEN), Colston Loveland (CHI), Tucker Kraft (GB), David Njoku (CLE), Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
This group's two hits - Warren and Kraft - were still useless in the fantasy playoffs.
This seems counterintuitive given the first lesson learned, but in the next installment, we'll get into how severe of a down year it was for fantasy wide receivers and tight ends. Don't assume this means that draft strategies that included waiting on running back until the fifth round or later were winners because that is only successful if you lock in big advantages at QB/WR/TE with your early round picks, which was harder to do because of the higher bust rate among early picks at those positions.
How to use this lesson in 2026
Zero in on your favorites out of last RB1s and first RB2s to be selected and make them a part of your draft plan, whether you take running backs early or not.
Lesson 3: Target Discounted Veteran Competition Instead of Rookie RBs
Ashton Jeanty isn't the most compelling evidence here - his role was what we expected, it was his situation that doomed him. If we look at the outcomes for the next three rookie running backs off the board in 2025 redraft leagues, that doesn't look like evidence against taking rookies either. Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, and RJ Harvey all made a big impact in fantasy leagues at some point.
There's an asterisk here, though - none of those backs sustained fantasy relevance until their running mate went down. Najee Harris was ahead of (and outplaying) Hampton when he went down. The Patriots went back to Rhamondre Stevenson as the lead back, even after Henderson had multiple games with multiple touchdowns in his absence. Yes, J.K. Dobbins wasn't known for his durability coming into 2025, but he was clearly a better play (even in PPR leagues) before Dobbins went down.
The next rookie back taken in redraft leagues was Kaleb Johnson, who was droppable after Week 1. Once again, taking the veteran back - Jaylen Warren in this instance - gave you much more bang for your buck. In late August/early September, the next rookie drafted was Jacory Croskey-Merritt. He had some moments for sure and was affected by Jayden Daniels injury luck, but he also was overtaken by Chris Rodriguez Jr.. Certainly not a success story.
Only when we get Cam Skattebo - the first rookie back who was going after his veteran counterpart (Tyrone Tracy Jr.) - probably because of a preseason hamstring injury - do we get a hit. And what a hit it was! Skattebo was on his way to being a league winner. So we can't say avoid rookie running backs, because Skattebo would have been a big enough hit to cancel missing on Jeanty and Kaleb Johnson earlier in the draft.
The better angle here is to take the veteran back, whose fantasy stock is depressed because of a rookie joining the backfield. That would have led you to:
- Najee Harris, LAC - Set to be a hit in the 13th/14th round before injury.
- Rhamondre Stevenson, NE - If you were patient through fumble issues and an injury, you got the RB7 in PPR leagues during the fantasy playoffs in the 10th/11th round.
- J.K. Dobbins, DEN - RB24 in PPR leagues when he went down in Week 10, went off the board as RB30 or later.
- Jaylen Warren, PIT - RB19 in PPR leagues, around RB30 in drafts.
- Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG - A miss until Skattebo went down, like Skattebo, the exception to this rule.
- Travis Etienne Jr., JAX - A borderline fantasy RB1 available in the 8th-10th round because of worry about rookie Bhayshul Tuten and camp star Tank Bigsby, who was traded to Philadelphia after Week 1.
If we wanted to stretch, we could include D'Andre Swift, who many thought wasn't a Ben Johnson favorite and weren't wrong when they said Johnson will use his seventh round pick Kyle Monangai a lot. We might even include Javonte Williams, who was RB13 on the season in PPR leagues, but only went a round or two earlier than rookie Jaydon Blue, who was in the doghouse for most of the season.
The trend is clear: we tend to overestimate rookies and underestimate veterans in these backfields. However, as Skattebo showed us, when the rookie is underestimated, the reward is a league winner.
How to use this lesson in 2026
Jeremiyah Love is going to go in the top 10 of the NFL draft and second round of fantasy drafts just like Jeanty. Unlike Jeanty, he could land somewhere with a much more robust offensive environment than Las Vegas. Be open to taking him despite the recent down years for hyped rookies. There might not be a rookie running back in the top 100 of fantasy drafts other than Love, but there should still be veterans who get knocked down a bit when they are joined by a rookie. So we can't use this lesson in a specific way until we know where the rookie running backs land.
Lesson 4: You Can Be Too Risk-Averse With Your Early RB Picks
After Christian McCaffrey's injury issues sabotaged fantasy teams in 2024, he was available in the mid-first round despite an uneventful offseason and camp that was consistent with a return to full health. Derrick Henry finished as RB4 in 2024, but the fantasy community couldn't bring themselves to take a 31-year-old back in the first round of 2025 fantasy drafts. McCaffrey was the most valuable player in fantasy football. Henry ended up being a better pick than most of the wide receivers and two of the running backs drafted before him, even though Lamar Jackson was only Lamar Jackson for the first month of the season.
How to use this lesson in 2026
Way-too-early ADP in 2026 best ball drafts has McCaffrey going even lower than he did in 2025, and Henry falling out of the first round again. If this holds through August and neither back shows signs of age-related or injury-related decline, they will be attractive picks.