How to Attack Your Small-League Draft

Small leagues are a lot of fun.  There is something about the eight or ten team leagues that make them enjoyable.  Maybe, it is having a team full of very good players.  The size makes them much different than the standard twelve teamers.  Just like with the larger leagues, it is a losing proposition to use standard draft strategies.  An entirely different strategy is required to make the most of the draft.  This article will specifically look at ten team leagues using non-PPR scoring.  We will examine strategies especially designed for the smaller leagues in order to best attack the draft and get the most from the roster.  This will help you form a new strategy for your small-sized league.

Down to basics, what are the differences I should know about the small leagues?

a.  Since there are no scarcity issues, everything is about the studs.   The whole draft is focused on how to draft enough elite players to win.  It is only through the studs that an owner can gain an edge over his leaguemates.  The top two or three players at each position outscore the rest by tremendous amounts.

b.  Knowing how to best attack the quarterback position is one of the biggest keys to small leagues?  Is it necessary to select a passer early in the draft like in the bigger leagues?

c.  The running back position is one where the drop-off in expected production comes earlier in 2014 than in years gone by, especially in non-PPR leagues.  How can I take advantage of this phenomena?

d.  With only fifty wide receivers rostered, on average, how do we gain an edge?

e.  Is there is a valid reason to take a kicker or team defense early?

How do I best address these questions above?

a.  Since we need studs in order to gain advantages, how best do I go about drafting these players?  The top players at every position give their owners a huge edge.  The best way to get these studs is to be proactive in your draft.  When the value stagnates at one position, look for studs at another.  In the  table below, we can see how the top wideout (Calvin Johnson) has a similar value to a large tier of backs, and the second receiver is far down the list.  So, why not gain an edge at receiver and select a similar rusher next round?  It pays to be proactive and look for talent plateaus and drop-offs.  Look for studs.  A top kicker or defense might be a great pick earlier than you would think, especially if they give you a two or three points per game edge each week.

b. In smaller (eight or ten teams) leagues which start only one passer, there is no reason to address the position before the fifth round unless you get a stud at an outstanding value.  There will be great fantasy quarterbacks available.  In smaller leagues, owners want to wait on quarterback (because there are so many good options) which makes the good passers drop further.  So, wait on quarterback and try to find studs at other positions.  It is best to wait until there are eight quarterbacks off the board before even looking at selecting a passer.  You may even want to consider waiting until some teams start taking backups and take two of the tier with Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, and Andy Dalton.

c.  We will look a little later at how weighted the values are heavily slanted toward the backs.  The ball carriers have a huge VBD value edge over the other positions so it is best to lock up as many top rushers as possible.   The expected fantasy production for these players at the position has definite tiers.  But, even the lesser fantasy starters are worth more than every quarterback – yes, even Peyton Manning - and every tight end, even Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.

d.  Unless going after a bona fide stud (e.g., Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, or Demaryius Thomas), it is best to wait on the wide receiver position until ten or fifteen are off the board.  There is very little difference in expected production – especially in non-PPR leagues - so you might as well stock up on the position (running back) where you gain an advantage.

e.    There are at least ten good kickers and team defenses so every team can have a good option.  You should employ one of two strategies for the kicker position.  Either take a stud earlier than you would think, or wait until ten are gone.  The stud gives you an extra few points a game so it is a viable strategy.  For the team defense position, it is best to play matchups with a smaller league.  There will be plenty of good options available on the waiver wire each week from which to choose.  Many times, it is better to have a mediocre defense with a great matchup than a good defense with a mediocre matchup.

When we look at the VBD (Value Based Drafting) application, we quickly realize how valued the running backs are when compared to the other positions.  The VBD accounts for positional scarcity and  available options at other positions using the Footballguys.com projections.  It is amazing that there are no quarterbacks or tight ends valued in the first two rounds.  If we look at just the first two rounds of a ten-team draft (in terms of VBD), 16 running backs and four wide receivers are worth a pick.  Further, even with the strong showing by the elite tight ends (Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski) last year, they are not valued as Top 20 players.  The league variables used were ten teams, sixteen roster spots, non-PPR scoring, and starting requirements of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, and 1 Team Defense.  The depth at the quarterback and wide receiver positions means that a fantasy owner can afford to wait on those positions while stocking up on rushers.  It is obvious looking at the table below that smaller leagues dictate a strong nucleus of running backs.

The table above represents the Top 50 players in terms of VBD.  There are a few things that jump out as obvious items of note.  As we discussed, the value of studs is immense, especially at the running back position.  Notice the VBD values for the three top players in comparison to the rest of the players, even very good players.  Who would have thought that these players would hold values equaling two others, who are still worth first round picks?  Also, as we progress to the 50th overall player, the wide receivers are still lag the running backs, and we will see them start catching up in the table below.

When looking at the VBD spots from player 51 through 100, the wide receivers begin catching up, the value at quarterback and tight end is still apparent.  As discussed above, having studs is the only way to gain an advantage.  For this reason, an owner who loads up on running backs early on can still get studs at the other positions through the first ten rounds.  This is why the kickers are actually a decent play when the value running back and wideout plateaus.

Every league is different but this article should help you form a winning strategy in smaller leagues.

Please feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with any questions or comments.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), Google+, and LinkedIN so feel free to where it is most convenient.