Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 3 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each particpant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 3 DRAFT:
1.01 Justin Howe
1.02 Sean Settle
1.03 James Brimacombe
1.04 Keith Roberts
1.05 Devin Knotts
1.06 Dan Hindery
DRAFT Results
draft evaluation
Justin Howe - Slot 1
Overview: I am not giddy with this team because I don't see many high scorers other than LeVeon Bell on this squad. And even Bell is still a question mark with only 7 receptions in two games with zero touchdowns so far. He'll eventually knock off the rust for good, but until that time comes, I don't see him as a Top pick, especially on the road. The Bears have allowed 37 and 67 yards rushing to their top opposing running back in Weeks 1 and 2. We are going to see just how good Denver's offense is this week. Buffalo is a better team than they are given credit for, especially on defense. They've allowed 12 and 9 points in their two games so far with a 1-1 record. I think Denver will win, but I wouldn't call this a marquee matchup for the Denver ground game. Michael Crabtree is coming off a huge three-touchdown game last week and will probably benefit with Josh Norman drawing Amari Cooper in Week 3. I applaud this pick. Carson Wentz vs. the Giants is an interesting pick. He has two 300-yard, two touchdown games to begin the year. The Giants weakness is their offense, not their defense, so this isn't a given that he will continue to perform. Grabbing Beckham with his fifth pick could be genius, or it could be trouble, especially with the Giants problems on their offensive line - on the road no less, where they won't have the benefit of hearing audibles or Eli Manning's cadence well. Beckham does have the distinction of facing one of the worst secondaries in the league, especially since the Ronald Darby injury. That may be the saving grace for him and Manning this week. Overall, I'm a little hesitant to call this one of the better team's drafted. There is more potential than promise, in my opinion.
Justin's commentary on his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My goal was clear - to land two of the top three or four running backs on the board. As Dan pointed out, RB is relatively shallow here, so two top-level names are a huge boon. I scooped LeVeon Bell first, and when Ty Montgomery didn't last to the end of Round 2, I opted for C.J. Anderson. Between the pair, I feel as though I've locked down serious volume from two big Week 3 favorites. After being sniped again on Derek Carr, I added Carson Wentz and two boom-or-bust wideouts - Michael Crabtree and Odell Beckham Jr - to introduce some dynamism to my roster. Beckham isn't 100%, and Crabtree will tangle with Josh Norman a fair amount, but both offer serious touchdown upside in games with favorable Vegas projections. All told, I'm thrilled with my roster, but would feel even better by swapping Wentz for Carr and Anderson for Montgomery.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
"Excited" may be too strong a word, but I loved adding C.J. Anderson with the 12th pick. When it comes to producing RB1/2 weeks, Anderson is a generally game flow- and touchdown-dependent guy, which is why I don't like him in a vacuum. But as a heavy favorite in Buffalo, I like his chances to turn strong volume into a solid, workmanlike stat line. I'm expecting Denver's smothering defense to give them a boost toward a big early lead, and Anderson to run his wheels off in the second half protecting it. Nothing specific against Trevor Siemian, who's making strides, but an ideal Broncos game is one in which Anderson and Jamaal Charles combine for 35-40 rushes. It typically means they're on the downslope of a stout lead.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
An early-week draft is tricky for many reasons, the primary being the injury report. We're not sure how much better Odell Beckham's ankle is after his part-time return, and bad news or an aggravation could torpedo this pick. But he carries an outstanding, Beckham-esque ceiling into a matchup that's better than it seems on paper. The Eagles secondary is also beaten up badly - top cornerback Ronald Darby is out long-term, while Jaylen Watkins is questionable on the other side and strong safety Rodney McLeod is iffy for Sunday himself. Now, Beckham is so dynamic and touchdown-prone that he doesn't need a strong matchup to project well. But it's a cherry on top. All in all, landing him with my last pick was about as upside-driven as it comes, so I loved making it.
Sean Settle - Slot 2
Overview: I like Sean's wide receivers (Antonio Brown at Chicago and Mike Evans at Minnesota). Both are staples on their respective team's offense and both are capable of a big yardage game with a score. If you don't count the small shovel pass to Juju Smith-Schuster last week, both Minnesota and Chicago have given up one touchdown to wide receivers this season. It's not a great matchup in that regard, plus both receivers are on the road. The pedigree of each may rise above and pay dividends for Sean this week. As for running back, I don't particularly like either pick. We saw how Denver eliminated Ezekiel Elliott from the game last week. Granted, this is a home game for LeSean McCoy, but those same Broncos defenders will be on the field that thwarted Elliott. Mark Ingram is an interesting pick to me. Carolina has played only San Francisco and Buffalo so far, but they have only allowed one red zone possession this season, and that came as a result of a Christian McCaffrey fumble. Carolina is playing lights out on defense, allowing only 6 points in two games. I don't think we'll see the same level of scoring defense against New Orleans, but it's not a favorable matchup nonetheless. Combine the fact that New Orleans has a committee approach at running back and it gives me pause. Matthew Stafford at quarterback at home against Atlanta is a good late pick in this draft. Stafford is playing well against challenging defenses and he should have good results again this week, in what looks like a favorable game script. Overall this team has some promise at wide receiver and quarterback, but Sean will need some magic from his running backs in order to pull out a victory.
Sean's commentary on his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The draft strategy this week was to go wide receiver heavy with proven guys in Antonio Brown and Mike Evans. Brown leads the league in receiving yards and ranks third in targets. It is only a matter of time before he finds the end zone and reclaims his spot atop the WR scoring elite. After taking two wide receivers to start the draft there was not much left in the way of running backs. LeSean McCoy was the best available but faces a stiff test with a Denver defense that help Ezekiel Elliot to a career worst rushing day. The strategy this week was to score as many points with wide receivers as I could and hope for average days from the running backs.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I am most excited about Matthew Stafford because of his matchup against Atlanta this week. Atlanta ranks 25th against the pass this season whole Detroit comes in at 23rd. With two quarterbacks and offenses that like to put the ball in the air there should be ample scoring. The over under currently sits at 50.5 and I believe it will be a much higher scoring game than that as both teams look to move to 3-0.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value comes from LeSean McCoy. He is currently falling down draft boards as he is set to face the Denver defense. Melvin Gordon combined for 79 yards and a touchdown against Denver in week one. The Bills have stated they are going to ride McCoy as far as they can and give him as many touches as he can handle. A consensus top 10 pick for yearlong fantasy fell to the third round this week and should surpass that value easily.
James Brimacombe - Slot 3
Overview: I like the team that James assembled. He has solid plays throughout that will take advantage of volume, matchup and/or game script. The Packers are dealing with wide receiver injuries in Jordy Nelson (quad) and Randall Cobb (shoulder). It's looking like Nelson and maybe Cobb may suit up, but how effective they'll be is another story. That leaves Davante Adams as the healthy beneficiary of Aaron Rodgers passes at home against Cincinnati, which is exactly the stack that James drafted. The only negative here is that Green Bay could have a big lead against the no-touchdown scored Bengals who have a new offensive coordinator in Bill Lazor. At least he was hired from within, but there's still questions as to how the offense will adjust. Jay Ajayi at New York Jets looks like a favorable matchup even if on the road. The Jets have allowed three rushing touchdowns to date, including a 100-yard game in Week 1. Mike Gillislee has four touchdowns in two games. The game at home against Houston isn't a pristine matchup, simply due to Houston's strength on defense, but this is the type of game where New England shifts their offense to cater to their ground game. LeGarrette Blount had 24-105-2 vs. Houston last year (also in Foxborough). That marked the second most carries in a game for Blount last year. Demaryius Thomas is a great fifth round pick. He leads the team in targets (16) and receptions (11) and will face a Bills corner unit without a true stopper. Overall this team has the talent and matchups to win Week 3.
James' commentary on his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This week was all about picking players in the best matchups for me. It is a tough week for projecting any of the games and the running back position seemed slimmer than most weeks. Last week I was burned by drafting Russell Wilson as my quarterback with my last pick, so I went opposite this week and took Aaron Rodgers as the first quarterback off the board in the second round. I paired Davante Adams with him in the third round because of the injuries to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb and am hoping for a big day from the QB/WR stack. I wanted to draft good players playing against bad teams this week and that is essentially what I got as a whole by the end of the draft.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
Jay Ajayi has me the most excited as he gets the Jets matchup and he is fresh with only playing one game so far this year. He is coming off a 30 touch (28 rushes, 2 reception) game against the Chargers and the game script alone this week should see him with over 20 touches again. The Jets are the second-worst run defense through the first two weeks of the season allowing an average of 29 carries for 138 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on the ground and 7 receptions for 68 additional yards. Ajayi saw all but one of the running back touches in Miami last week so that alone has me most excited for Ajayi this week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
In a week where it is difficult to find running backs, I really liked my Mike Gillislee selection in the fourth round. The game script is in Gillislee’s favor as the Patriots are playing at home and are 13 point favorites. Gillislee plays in a system where the team has 3 or 4 running backs rotating in or out which makes it scary when trying to select one of them, but he is guaranteed the goal line touches which is most important as he has four touchdowns on the season and has carried the ball 15 times in Week 1 and 18 times in Week 2. All of his touchdowns have either been 1-yard or 2-yard scores and with the Patriots being such high point favorites this week he will likely have a few more goal line looks.
Keith Roberts - Slot 4
Overview: This is not a bad team. In fact, I'd call it better than average. There are no stacks involved, just good, solid players with favorable matchups in most cases. DeAndre Hopkins concerns me, simply because I'm not sold on Deshaun Watson yet as a passer who can move the ball down the field and score consistently. Hopkins has 14 receptions, but his catch percentage is sub-50. Houston may find themselves in a game script that favors the pass against New England, but I'm still concerned about Hopkins being a consistent threat each week. Ben Roethlisberger on the road is cautious situation, but the Bears struggled with Tampa Bay last week. Perhaps there's some road magic in Roethlisberger's arm? Kareem Hunt is one of the best stories of the year so far and he doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Andy Reid's offense and play calling is a big reason for Hunt's emergence.. He's a great pick at 1.04. Christian McCaffrey has not had a big highlight catch/run yet this season, but his time is coming. Perhaps against the Saints in Carolina will be the time? Amari Cooper could be the big winner for Oakland at Washington. It depends on who Josh Norman will cover more often. The consensus seems to believe he'll rotate between Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The answer to that question may decide Keith's fate as the top finisher this week.
Keith's commentary on his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This week I had to go after a running back first, as the drop off is sharp due to some tough matchups out there. I was content waiting on quarterback since there is nobody in an elite matchup like Tom Brady was last week. Amari Cooper was disappointing last week, but he is in what should be a very high scoring game with plenty of opportunities this week. Deandre Hopkins is a target machine who I was very happy to get as my second receiver, and because of the drop-off at running back this week, I was content being the last one to fill that position.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
DeAndre Hopkins is a guy I would not normally be excited about, but he looks to have a very positive game script this week as Houston is the largest underdog of the week. Hopkins has been the most heavily targeted receiver this season with 29. Despite only hauling in 14 of those targets, it has been obvious that Deshaun Watson will force the ball to him by any means necessary as that offense is really lacking talent in terms of pass-catchers. He has a tough matchup against Malcom Butler, but I am counting on quantity over quality this week as a number of the top receivers are in tough spots.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Christian McCaffrey as the last running back off the board was my value pick of the week. While McCaffrey may not contribute much on the ground, he has a ton of pass-catching upside. Five of his nine receptions over the first two games have went for 10 or more yards, and he has only one fewer target than the team’s leading wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. With Greg Olsen now out, there will be even more targets to go around since Ed Dickson should not garner nearly as much attention in the passing game. McCaffrey has a premium matchup to catch passes against the Saints porous defense this week. James White plays a similar role for the Patriots, and he hauled in eight receptions for 85 yards in this matchup last week. There is no reason why McCaffrey can’t do the same here.
Devin Knotts - Slot 5
Overview: I like Devin's team quite a bit. He did a good job of picking the right positions with each pick. I don't love A.J. Green for the simple fact that Cincinnati's offense is in the doldrums. Perhaps Green can pick up the slack and carry the team on his back. In order for that to happen, Andy Dalton will have to break out of his slump. The volume will be there for Green this week at Green Bay, but can he reach the end zone? If he can, Devin's team has a chance to finish first. I like both Ty Montgomery and Dalvin Cook at running back. Cook looked great playing at home in Week 1. If Sam Bradford can return this week, I like Minnesota's chances of moving the ball, which plays into Cook's ability to perform well. Derek Carr is a great quarterback play against Washington, in what could be a fairly close game leading to a favorable game script. Keenan Allen should see plenty of action against Kansas City. He leads the team in targets (20), receptions (14) and receiving touchdowns (1). This team has hope especially if A.J. Green can come alive.
Devin's commentary on his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Heading into the draft, I knew I wanted to get a top running back in the first round as the fall off happens quickly and then ideally get a second running back in the second round with pick 2.02. Unfortunately, I think everyone in this draft had the same idea as five running backs went off the board in the first round which essentially forced me into grabbing the player who I feel could be the second best wide receiver this week in A.J. Green who is a player that is going under the radar due to a somewhat slow start.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I am most excited about Ty Montgomery as my first round selection as after last week’s monster game from Montgomery he is now going up against a Bengals team that is allowing 162.5 yards per game rushing and were the 11th worst team against the run in 2016. This is a player that has a very high floor due to his workload as he is averaging 14.5 carries and five receptions per game, but his upside is high as we saw this past week as he had two touchdowns this past week along with 110 total yards.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value of the draft was definitely Dalvin Cook in the third round. I was shocked when he came back to me and I was able to grab him going up against a Buccaneers defense that while they looked great last season against the run, really struggled in 2016 as they were a bottom ten defense against the run. For five running backs to go off the board in the first round and then for me to be able to wait and get Cook in the third round I felt was terrific value.
Dan Hindery - Slot 5
Overview: Dan took a swing for the fence with the stack of Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin against the Saints. This may be the play that wins the week for him, as well as others who employ this strategy in Week 3. The Panthers offense has started off slow this year and their defense has come up big to give them a 2-0 start. Newton has a history of success against the Saints, and this week could be more of the same. I think you have to chalk up their lack of offense last week due to them facing their former defensive coordinator who knows the Panthers weaknesses on offense, especially the offensive line. Newton wasn't sacked in Week 1, but he suffered six sacks against the Bills and his former defensive coordinator. The Saints are allowing an astounding 141.4 QB Rating against this season. If Cam Newton has a big game, Dan may win this going away. The Atlanta combo of Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones should put up decent points with a a high possibility of one (or both) scoring a touchdown. Melvin Gordon as his second running back at pick 3.06 is an absolute steal. The matchup against Kansas City isn't ideal, but Gordon's usage should get him decent points by default. This is Dan's contest to lose.
Dan's commentary on his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The shallowest position this week is running back. There are not 12 backs on the main slate who I want to own this weekend. My primary goal in 6-Man and 10-Man drafts this week is to make sure I get a pair of solid running backs with high floors and multi-touchdown upside. I feel like I succeeded in that goal as best as I could drafting from the 6th spot. The backs I am highest on this week were all gone before my pick, which was disappointing and left me picking between from amongst my second tier. But Devonta Freeman and Melvin Gordon are both top-8 backs for me this week and both have proven multi-touchdown upside.
The big choice there at the 1/2 turn was whether to lock in a pair of top backs or grab one back and one of the top receivers. Julio Jones is a strong option every week regardless of matchup, so I decided to grab him and roll the dice that there would still be a decent RB2 option at 3.06. The risk was that I’d get caught on the wrong end of a running back run and left staring at RB2 options I am not excited about (guys like Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen, Mike Gillislee, and Marshawn Lynch). Luckily, a half dozen wide receivers went between 2.01 and 3.05 and Melvin Gordon was still there for me at 3.06.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I’m excited about Cam Newton facing the Saints pass defense that has given up 793 passing yards and 6 touchdowns over the first two weeks. Newton should have receivers running open all day. Whether he can actually hit them with accurate passes is the bigger unknown. In a tournament format where third place is no better than finishing last, I’m willing to roll the dice to find out. The upside is obvious. In his last five games against the Saints, Newton has averaged a ridiculous 28.55 points per game in Draft scoring.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
For the second week in a row, my answer is Melvin Gordon. Last week I was excited to land Gordon late in the first round and he outperformed every running back taken in the first two rounds of our draft except Kareem Hunt. I feel even better getting him all the way down at 3.06 this week.
Gordon has a high weekly floor due to his pass-game usage (12 catches on 14 targets through two weeks) and his touchdown upside is also extremely attractive. Gordon has scored 14 touchdowns in his last 15 games. The matchup against Kansas City isn’t ideal, but is not one to be feared either. In fact, the last time Gordon faced the Chiefs, he and Danny Woodhead combined for 38.2 Draft points.
projected scores
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
