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Week 17 Preparation
Congratulations to those who dominated the playoffs up to this point or squeaked through by the narrowest of margins. Several big names failed to come through for us in Week 16, including Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Rico Dowdle, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, Trey McBride, and Jake Ferguson. If you managed to navigate several roadblocks of poor play, congratulations, because it was a minefield. You looked at bad luck in the face and said, "Is that all you got?" There will be some teams in the title game who stumbled in. To use a hockey/soccer analogy, a goal is still a goal even if it slowly rolls past the goalie. It takes skill to advance this far, but a great deal of luck is involved as well. Congratulations if you made it this far. Many strong teams will be watching from home instead of competing in Week 17. If that's you, don't be too hard on yourself; winning a championship is not easy. After all, you need to:
- Get into the playoffs with a few strong players, consistent play, and good depth.
- Take advantage of good matchups and fade tough ones.
- Hope for good luck on your side and bad luck for your opponent.
- Navigate the refs.
For those of you who did make it...Week 17 is here. You survived. You're in the Finals. Hopefully, the majority of you do not have a Week 18 Championship. Maybe you have a lot of money on the line. Or maybe just bragging rights among your family, friends, or co-workers. Either way, the goal is in sight. Here are a few thoughts on taking down your opponent and lifting the trophy.
Historically, home running backs are more effective.
Unless there's an injury to a big-name player, go with those who got you here. Home running backs are the ticket, especially later in the year. Jonathan Taylor (vs Jacksonville), James Cook (vs Philadelphia), Rico Dowdle (vs Seattle), Bijan Robinson (vs LA Rams), Christian McCaffrey (vs Chicago), Chase Brown (vs Arizona), Josh Jacobs (vs Baltimore), Omarion Hampton(vs Houston), Ashton Jeanty (vs NY Giants), and De'Von Achane (vs Tampa Bay) are some notable running backs who have home games this week.
Let's not forget about matchups.
The teams to exploit at running back for this week are Buffalo, Arizona, Washington, Cleveland, and the NY Jets. Each of these teams has allowed at least one rushing touchdown per game to running backs since Week 10.
Opponents for each
Buffalo vs Philadelphia - This is a good matchup for Saquon Barkley. He isn't a debatable option, but if you have Barkley, consider yourself in a good group. The Bills have allowed a league-high 24 rushing touchdowns and average 144.3 rushing yards allowed to running backs per game, which is third-highest.
Arizona at Cincinnati - Since Week 10, only the Commanders have allowed more fantasy points to running backs than Arizona. Chase Brown (at Miami) led all running backs in fantasy points scored last week. This matchup bodes well for Brown. Not only is he playing at home, but Arizona has allowed, on average, 143 rushing yards to running backs per game since Week 10. That's the highest in the league.
Washington vs Dallas - This is a strong matchup for Javonte Williams and the Cowboys' running game. Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs since Week 10. The only concern is if Dallas elects to minimize Williams' carries because they are eliminated from the postseason. If so, Malik Davis becomes a player of interest. As of this publication, all indications suggest Williams will play and start this week.
NY Jets vs New England - The Jets have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs since Week 10, but in the last two games against Jacksonville and New Orleans, they have been better - perhaps because they were too busy allowing passing yards and digging holes for their offense. Either way, this is a positive matchup for the Patriots' running backs. TreVeyon Henderson may not play this week due to a head injury he suffered on Sunday night, which would open a HUGE door for Rhamondre Stevenson to be a Championship winner.
Cleveland vs Pittsburgh - The Browns have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs since Week 10 and should continue to do so this week against Pittsburgh. James Cook, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, and Christian McCaffrey all found success against the Browns' run defense. Pittsburgh has a two-headed monster at running back with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Expect a heavy dose of them this week in Cleveland. Even if the Lake Erie weather is bad, the running backs should be the focal point.
