Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 11/4 @ 7 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Green Bay | -5.5 | 31 | 56.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | New Orleans | -2 | 31 | 60 | +++ | +++ | |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | -6.5 | 30.75 | 55 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | Cleveland | -8 | 30 | 52 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | LA Rams | 2 | 27.75 | 57.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Minnesota | Detroit | -5 | 26.75 | 48.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Green Bay | New England | 5.5 | 25.5 | 56.5 | + | + | |
| Washington | Atlanta | -2.5 | 25.25 | 48 | + | + | |
| Baltimore | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 24.75 | 47 | + | + | |
| Seattle | LA Chargers | -1 | 24.5 | 48 | + | + | |
| San Francisco | Oakland | -3 | 24.5 | 46 | + | + | |
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | 6.5 | 24.25 | 55 | ++ | + | |
| Chicago | Buffalo | -10 | 23.75 | 37.5 | +++ | ||
| Denver | Houston | -1 | 23.5 | 46 | |||
| LA Chargers | Seattle | 1 | 23.5 | 48 | |||
| Miami | NY Jets | -3 | 22.75 | 42.5 | + | ||
| Atlanta | Washington | 2.5 | 22.75 | 48 | |||
| Dallas | Tennessee | -4.5 | 22.5 | 40.5 | ++ | ||
| Houston | Denver | 1 | 22.5 | 46 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | 2.5 | 22.25 | 47 | |||
| Cleveland | Kansas City | 8 | 22 | 52 | |||
| Detroit | Minnesota | 5 | 21.75 | 48.5 | |||
| Oakland | San Francisco | 3 | 21.5 | 46 | |||
| NY Jets | Miami | 3 | 19.75 | 42.5 | |||
| Tennessee | Dallas | 4.5 | 18 | 40.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Chicago | 10 | 13.75 | 37.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Jared Goff (Rams), Cam Newton (Panthers), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Kenjon Barner/James White (Patriots), Todd Gurley (Rams), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Devin Funchess/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Bears
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Latavius Murray (Vikings),
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Ben Watson (Saints), Adam Thielen/Laquan Treadwell/Aldrick Robinson/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Cowboys
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Alex Smith (Redskins), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Nick Mullens (49ers)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), Adrian Peterson (Redskins), Alex Collins (Ravens), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Matt Breida (49ers), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Paul Richardson Jr/Josh Doctson/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead (Ravens), Tyler Lockett/Doug Baldwin/David Moore (Seahawks), Marquise Goodwin/Kendrick Bourne/George Kittle (49ers)
- Defense: Dolphins
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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Davante Adams
Peyton Barber
Kenjon Barner
Kendrick Bourne
Tom Brady
Matt Breida
John Brown
Chris Carson
Randall Cobb
Alex Collins
Brandin Cooks
Kirk Cousins
Josh Doctson
Mike Evans
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Joe Flacco
Jared Goff
Marquise Goodwin
Josh Gordon
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Tyreek Hill
Chris Hogan
O.J. Howard
Kareem Hunt
Mark Ingram II
DeSean Jackson
Aaron Jones
Alvin Kamara
Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Cooper Kupp
Tyler Lockett
Patrick Mahomes II
Christian McCaffrey
David Moore
DJ Moore
Nick Mullens
Latavius Murray
Cam Newton
Adrian Peterson
Aaron Rodgers
Kyle Rudolph
Tre'Quan Smith
Willie Snead IV
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Sammy Watkins
James White
Russell Wilson
Robert Woods
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