Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 12/9 @ 8 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -10 | 32 | 54 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Chargers | Cincinnati | -15 | 31.5 | 48 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| Pittsburgh | Oakland | -10 | 30.5 | 51 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | Baltimore | -6.5 | 28.75 | 51 | +++ | +++ | |
| New England | Miami | -8 | 28.25 | 48.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Green Bay | Atlanta | -4.5 | 27.75 | 51 | ++ | ++ | |
| LA Rams | Chicago | -3 | 27 | 51 | ++ | ++ | |
| Houston | Indianapolis | -4 | 27 | 50 | ++ | ++ | |
| Denver | San Francisco | -3.5 | 24.25 | 45 | + | + | |
| Carolina | Cleveland | -1 | 24.25 | 47.5 | + | + | |
| Seattle | Minnesota | -3 | 24.25 | 45.5 | + | + | |
| Chicago | LA Rams | 3 | 24 | 51 | + | + | |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3 | 24 | 45 | + | + | |
| Cleveland | Carolina | 1 | 23.25 | 47.5 | |||
| Atlanta | Green Bay | 4.5 | 23.25 | 51 | |||
| Indianapolis | Houston | 4 | 23 | 50 | |||
| Baltimore | Kansas City | 6.5 | 22.25 | 51 | |||
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 10 | 22 | 54 | |||
| Detroit | Arizona | -3 | 21.75 | 40.5 | + | ||
| NY Giants | Washington | -3 | 21.5 | 40 | + | ||
| Minnesota | Seattle | 3 | 21.25 | 45.5 | |||
| Tennessee | Jacksonville | -5.5 | 21.25 | 37 | +++ | ||
| Philadelphia | Dallas | 3 | 21 | 45 | |||
| Buffalo | NY Jets | -4 | 20.75 | 37.5 | ++ | ||
| San Francisco | Denver | 3.5 | 20.75 | 45 | |||
| Oakland | Pittsburgh | 10 | 20.5 | 51 | |||
| Miami | New England | 8 | 20.25 | 48.5 | |||
| Arizona | Detroit | 3 | 18.75 | 40.5 | |||
| Washington | NY Giants | 3 | 18.5 | 40 | |||
| NY Jets | Buffalo | 4 | 16.75 | 37.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | LA Chargers | 15 | 16.5 | 48 | |||
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | 5.5 | 15.75 | 37 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Austin Ekeler/Justin Jackson (Chargers), Jaylen Samuels (Steelers), Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead (Patriots)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Dan Arnold (Saints), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (Chargers), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Titans
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Jared Goff (Rams), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), Todd Gurley (Rams), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), DeAndre Hopkins/Demaryius Thomas/Keke Coutee (Texans)
- Defense: Chargers, Bills
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Case Keenum (Broncos), Cam Newton (Panthers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Phillip Lindsay (Broncos), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen (Bears), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Emmanuel Sanders/Courtland Sutton/Matt LaCosse (Broncos), Devin Funchess/D.J. Moore/Curtis Samuel (Panthers), Doug Baldwin/David Moore/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller/Taylor Gabriel/Trey Burton (Bears), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Cole Beasley (Cowboys)
- Defense: Giants, Lions
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