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Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
FanDuel: Jackson ($8,200) + Brown ($5,800) = $14,000
DraftKings: Jackson ($6,900) + Brown ($6,200) = $13,100
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 17 ranked pass defense allowing 244.2 yards per game
Game Total - 48
Implied Totals - Ravens at 29.5 points and Bengals at 18.5 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -11
The Baltimore Ravens are at home this weekend as they face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for a Week 6 AFC North matchup. The Bengals are struggling in all phases, winless, and a huge underdog on the road this week. The Ravens have the highest implied total (29.5) of the week, and they are going to put points on the board in this contest.
Jackson started the 2019 season on fire, throwing for five touchdowns in the season’s first week. He has 11 passing scores and 1271 yards over the first five games and has also kicked in a rushing touchdown to go with 308 yards rushing over that span.
The Bengals have allowed eight scores through the air, and only 12 teams in the NFL have allowed more. The Bengals have allowed 8.7-yards per attempt which is third-most in the NFL. They have yielded 20 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are fifth-most in the NFL.
Also, only three teams in the NFL have fewer sacks than the six the Bengals have registered. The Bengals have not been able to apply pressure on the quarterback, and we saw what Jackson could do back in Week 1 when he was comfortable and had time to allow deep routes to develop.
Brown is a speedster capable of taking the top off the defense in a flash, and he has flashed big-play ability through five weeks. He is the vertical option in the Ravens passing attack, and he should have chances to make plays in this game.
Brown has seen 39 targets in five games. He has converted 21 of those targets into catches for 326 yards and three scores. Brown is currently questionable with an ankle injury, but it is not likely to keep him out of action Sunday. Monitor his status to ensure he plays Sunday, and if he does, he is an excellent GPP play for Week 6.
Pivot: Tight end Mark Andrews ($6,300 at FanDuel and $4,800 at DraftKings) has emerged as one of Jackson’s go-to weapons in the passing attack. He has 39 targets through five games, and he has 28 catches for 311 yards and three scores in 2019. Andrews has a great matchup but is questionable with a lingering foot injury, and you want to see him practice before rostering him.
FanDuel: Ryan ($8,100) + Jones ($6,400) = $14,500
DraftKings: Ryan ($6,400) + Jones ($5,000) = $11,400
Facing the No. 27 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 24 ranked pass defense allowing 269.2 yards per game
Game Total - 52
Implied Totals - Falcons at 27 points and Cardinals at 25 points
Game Line - Atlanta Falcons -2
The Atlanta Falcons are on the road versus the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, and they are a two-point road favorite in this matchup. This game has the second-highest total of the week (52), and the implied number for the Falcons has them at almost four scores (27). Ryan and the Falcons passing attack should have a big game against the Cardinals this week.
Ryan has started the 2019 season at a very nice pace, throwing for 11 scores to go along with 1655 yards in his first five games this season. He also scored a rushing touchdown and has 55 yards on the ground as a rusher. The Falcons defense is not playing well, and the offense has had to throw the ball to stay in games.
The Cardinals have given up 12 scores through the air which is second-most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.2-yard average which is seventh-highest in the NFL. Also, they have given up 19 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only seven teams in the NFL have yielded more.
The Cardinals struggles against the tight end are well documented, but let’s look at what they have done this year. The gave up six catches, 131 yards, and a score to T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 against the Lions. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews lit them up for eight catches, 112 yards, and a score in Week 2.
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen hit the Cardinals for 75 yards, two scores, and six catches in Week 3. In Week 4, it was Seahawks tight end Will Dissly’s turn. He went for seven catches, 57 yards, and a score. The Cardinals slowed the Bengals tight ends last week, but Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton did miss tight end Tyler Eifert in the red zone. It is easy to see a path to success for Hooper.
Hooper has emerged as one of the primary weapons in the Falcons passing game. He has 42 targets in the first five games of the 2019 season. He has registered 34 catches for 363 yards and two scores this season, and this matchup screams for nothing but positive things for him.
Pivot: Wide receiver Julio Jones ($8,500 at FanDuel and $8,000 at DraftKings) is one of the game’s premier receivers, and is dangerous every time he touches the ball. He is questionable with a hip injury, and he needs to practice this week. Watch the practice reports throughout the rest of the week.
Wide receiver Calvin Ridley ($5,500 at FanDuel and $5,700 at DraftKings) would be a fantastic start if Jones were to miss this contest. He merits consideration as he is capable of big plays too, and this matchup screams offense with the Cardinals and Falcons offenses capable of quickly beating up on the opposing defense.
Wide receiver Mohamed Sanu ($6,000 at FanDuel and $4,500 at DraftKings) is a steady, reliable producer for the Falcons, and if he were to see more target volume, he could be a steal at his price. Pay attention to the injury reports leading up to game time.
FanDuel: Murray ($7,700) + Fitzgerald ($5,600) = $13,300
DraftKings: Murray ($6,500) + Fitzgerald ($6,100) = $12,600
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 20 ranked pass defense allowing 257.4 yards per game
Game Total - 52
Implied Totals - Cardinals at 25 points and Falcons at 27 points
Game Line - Arizona Cardinals +2
The Arizona Cardinals are home versus the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday for a Week 6 NFC matchup that has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. This game has the second-highest total of the week (52), and the Cardinals have the eighth-highest implied total of the week (25), and it is not too difficult to see a scenario where they need to go over to stay in this game.
Murray has started the 2019 season in a bit of an up and down manner. He has thrown for four scores and four interceptions to go along with 1324 yards in his first five games this season. It has not gone as well as some hoped, but there are signs of life here.
Murray has also scored a rushing touchdown in each of the past two weeks and has 206 yards on the ground as a rusher. He is bolstering his floor with his rushing totals, but he should pick apart a very porous secondary this week.
The Falcons have given up 12 scores through the air which is second-most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.5-yard average which is fourth-highest in the NFL. The Falcons have given up 18 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only 11 teams in the NFL have yielded more.
They have given up four passing plays of 40-plus yards which is eighth-most in the NFL. Interestingly, the Falcons have only registered five sacks to date, and no team has fewer sacks to start this season. Murray will have time to allow routes to develop, and he will pick apart this secondary.
Fitzgerald is a legend, and one of the best wide receivers to ever play in the NFL. Murray is looking for him, and he is the first option in the Cardinals passing attack. Fitzgerald has been targeted 44 times through the season’s first five games, catching 29 passes for 358 yards and two scores. He should be able to exploit this matchup and is an exciting GPP option in Week 6.
The game script is very positive for the Cardinals passing game, and the offensive potency of the Falcons offense can push the Cardinals to put the pedal to the floor, which makes it even more intriguing.
Pivot: Wide receiver Christian Kirk ($5,600 at FanDuel and $5,200 at DraftKings) has 36 targets through five weeks, and he is a big part of the Cardinals passing attack. He is a worthy option due to the matchup and the potential for this contest to be a high-scoring affair. He is questionable with an ankle injury, and you want to see him practice before choosing to roster him.
Wide receivers KeeSean Johnson ($4,600 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) is an interesting option in Week 6. He has seen 26 targets but has not scored in 2019, but this matchup is fantastic and makes him worthy of a dart throw on Sunday. If Kirk misses the game on Sunday, then Johnson’s outlook brightens to make him a phenomenal option for GPP play in Week 6.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Wilson ($8,000) + Lockett ($6,300) = $14,300
DraftKings: Wilson ($6,600) + Lockett ($6,400) = $12,600
Facing the No. 11 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 7 ranked pass defense allowing 206.4 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Seahawks at 24 points and Browns at 23 points
Game Line - Seattle Seahawks -1
The Seattle Seahawks are on the road as they take on the Cleveland Browns in a Week 6 matchup. This game has the sixth-highest total of the week (47) and is a matchup that is intriguing as both teams are forecast to score three-plus touchdowns.
Wilson has played lights-out football to start the 2019 season. He has thrown for 12 touchdowns and 1409 yards to go with 120 yards rushing and two scores on the ground. He is also taking care of the football as he has not thrown an interception in 2019.
The Browns have not given up significant yardage against the pass, but they are surrendering touchdowns at a high rate. The Browns have given up 10 scores through the air, and only five teams league-wide have yielded more.
Lockett is easily the first option in the Seahawks passing attack, and he is capable of making plays all over the field. He has been targeted 36 times to date, catching 30 passes for 379 yards and three scores. Lockett can make plays all over the field, and he and Wilson have developed excellent rapport.
Stacking Wilson and any of the passing game options is a contrarian type of play as the game script calls for heave doses of Seahawks running back Chris Carson. It comes with a hefty amount of risk as the Seahawks may get conservative, utilizing the run to shorten the game.
However, the Browns have surrendered plenty of touchdowns through the air, and there is a path for GPP success for the Seahawks passing game. The Browns offense can be potent, but they have struggled at times this year. If they can push the Seahawks offense and force them to throw the ball, it will make this stack valuable at its price.
Pivot: Wide receiver DK Metcalf ($5,800 at FanDuel and $4,700 at DraftKings) is a vertical weapon capable of scoring any time he touches the ball. He is worthy of a shot in this matchup as the Browns are bleeding touchdowns.
Tight end Will Dissly ($6,000 at FanDuel and $4,900 at DraftKings) has become one of Wilson’s favorite options in the Seahawks passing game. He is reliable and efficient and has emerged as a potent option at the tight end position. Dissly has 26 targets in five games, and he has caught 23 of them for 262 yards and four scores in 2019.
Ezekiel Elliott + Cowboys Defense
FanDuel: Elliott ($8,500) + Cowboys ($5,000) = $13,500
DraftKings: Elliott ($8,500) + Cowboys ($4,300) = $12,800
Facing the No. 11 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 7 ranked run defense allowing 87.5 yards per game
Game Total - 43.5
Implied Totals - Cowboys at 26 points and Jets at 17.5 points
Game Line - Dallas Cowboys -8.5
The Dallas Cowboys are on the road versus the New York Jets on Sunday for a Week 6 matchup. The Cowboys are an 8.5-point road favorite, and the game script has Elliott and the running game getting plenty of work in this contest.
The Jets have surrendered five scores on the ground, and only eight teams across the league have allowed more. Only five teams in the NFL have defended more running plays than the Jets, and the touchdown number above becomes a touch more meaningful given the low amount of carries for the opposition, especially considering we are projecting more volume in this matchup.
The Jets are going to struggle to handle the Cowboys defense, specifically when they try to throw the ball. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold returns after missing several weeks, and the Cowboys defense should be able to generate production through pressure. The Cowboys are a middle-of-the-pack defense when it comes to sacks, as they have produced 12 in 2019. 15 teams in the NFL have more sacks to this point in the season.
The Jets have a hard time keeping their quarterback clean, and they have surrendered 23 sacks to date which are the most in the NFL. The opposing defense registers a sack on 19.1 percent of the Jets attempts which is the highest rate surrendered in the NFL. The Cowboys should handle the Jets on both sides of the ball in this game, and the path for GPP success is relatively easy to see.
The game script looks excellent for Elliott and the Cowboys defense, and it is not difficult to see the Cowboys ahead in this game and shortening the game via the rushing attack. Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it is an excellent option for GPP play in Week 6.
Mark Ingram + Ravens Defense
FanDuel: Ingram ($7,500) + Ravens ($5,000) = $12,500
DraftKings: Ingram ($6,600) + Ravens ($4,100) = $10,700
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 31 ranked run defense allowing 167.6 yards per game
Game Total - 48
Implied Totals - Ravens at 29.5 points and Bengals at 18.5 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -11
The Baltimore Ravens are at home versus the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for a Week 6 AFC North matchup. The Ravens are an 11-point home favorite, and the Ravens implied total tells us they should have no trouble putting points on the board via their offense. Their defense is also capable, and they will have opportunities in this game.
The Bengals have yielded a 5.0-yard per carry average which is sixth-highest in the NFL. They have also given up seven rushing plays of 20-plus yards, and no team in the NFL has allowed more. Lastly, they have allowed seven scores on the ground which is most in the NFL. Teams have gashed the Bengals with their ground game, and this week will be no different.
The game script is very positive for the Ravens ground game as they enter the contest as an 11-point point favorite, and they are going to run the ball effectively. If the Ravens get ahead, we will see heavy volume for the running backs, and that means big things for Ingram in this game.
The Ravens defense has not played well to this point in the season, but this is a fantastic matchup and one that should pay dividends. The Bengals offensive line is struggling, and it has surrendered 20 sacks in 2019 through Week 5. Pressure is a problem for quarterback Andy Dalton, and the offensive line is allowing Dalton to see too much of it. Advantage Baltimore!
The game script looks very positive for Ingram and the Ravens defense, and it is not difficult to see both sides of this stack as an excellent option for GPP play in Week 6.