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Nigel Eccles, Co-Founder, FanDuel
Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
FanDuel: Wilson ($8,600) + Metcalf ($6,700) = $15,300
DraftKings: Wilson ($7,100) + Metcalf ($5,700) = $12,800
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 285.9 yards per game
Game Total - 52
Implied Totals - Seahawks at 29 points and Buccaneers at 23 points
Game Line - Seattle Seahawks -6
The Seattle Seahawks are at home this weekend as they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday for a Week 9 NFC matchup. There should be plenty of points scored here as this game has the highest total of the week (52), with the Seahawks holding the highest implied number for any team in the NFL in Week 9.
Wilson is playing fantastic football in 2019, throwing for 17 touchdowns and only one interception through eight games. He has thrown for 2127 yards, and he has accumulated 182 yards to go with three scores. He is beating teams with his arm and his legs. He has a chance to have a monster game this week as the Falcons are struggling to defend the pass.
The Buccaneers have allowed 14 scores through the air, and only six teams in the NFL have allowed more. They have also yielded 29 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only nine teams in the NFL allow more. They have also given up five passing plays of 40-plus yards which are eleventh-most in the NFL.
The Buccaneers have struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback, only registering 16 sacks to date. Only eight teams across the league have fewer sacks in 2019. Wilson has been lethal this year, and with extra time to pick apart this secondary on Sunday, he could post huge numbers.
Metcalf has emerged as a go-to option in the Seahawks passing game, and with tight end Will Dissly out for the year, one has to wonder if Metcalf will get more red-zone looks with his size. He is capable of making plays down the field with his straight-line speed, but he also has the size to box out defenders in smaller spaces. Metcalf has seen 45 targets in 2019, and he has caught 23 passes for 402 yards and four scores. He is an excellent GPP option for Week 9.
Pivot: Wide receiver Tyler Lockett ($7,500 at FanDuel and $7,500 at DraftKings) continues to get plenty of looks from Wilson, and he remains efficient in every way. He has 54 targets and 46 catches in 2019, generating 615 yards and scoring four times. He is also an excellent GPP play in 2019.
FanDuel: Carr ($7,300) + Waller ($6,800) = $14,100
DraftKings: Carr ($5,500) + Waller ($6,300) = $11,800
Facing the No. 22 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 289.7 yards per game
Game Total - 50.5
Implied Totals - Raiders at 26 points and Lions at 24 points
Game Line - Oakland Raiders -2
The Oakland Raiders are at home versus the Detroit Lions in Week 9, and they are a two-point home favorite in this matchup. This game has the second-highest total of the week (50.5), and the implied number for the Raiders has them nearing four scores (26). The Raiders have the opportunity to put up big numbers against a struggling Lions defense this week.
Carr has been up and down in 2019, but he has played exceptionally well in the past two weeks since the Raiders Week 6 bye. He has thrown for 578 yards and five touchdowns, and only one interception in those two games. He should stay hot in Week 9 against a team struggling to defend the pass.
The Lions have given up 14 scores through the air which are sixth-most in the NFL. They have given up 31 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are seventh-most in the NFL. They have allowed six plays of 40-plus yards which are eighth-most in the league.
The Lions are not built to generate pressure on the quarterback in a traditional sense as they do not have a dangerous pass rusher. They bring pressure through scheme, confusion, and blitzing at times. They have generated 13 sacks in 2019, and only five teams in the NFL have fewer sacks in 2019.
Waller has emerged as an essential weapon in the Raiders passing game. Waller has scored three times in the past two games, and he has 16 targets over that span, catching nine passes for 137 yards. The script is incredibly positive for the Raiders passing attack, and Waller should be able to exploit this matchup in a significant way.
Pivot: Wide receiver Tyrell Williams ($6,300 at FanDuel and $5,900 at DraftKings) is a big-play threat, but he is dealing with a foot injury that limited his availability in practice Wednesday. The matchup is excellent, and he can exploit this matchup if he can play without limitation. Monitor his status throughout the week.
Wide receiver Zay Jones ($4,800 at FanDuel and $3,000 at DraftKings) is an intriguing option if Williams is limited or out against the Lions. He would step into a primary role, and one he can take advantage of with the Lions struggling to defend the pass. He is an intriguing Week 9 GPP option at any rate, but he becomes much more intriguing if Williams misses the game.
FanDuel: Stafford ($7,900) + Golladay ($7,600) = $15,500
DraftKings: Stafford ($6,800) + Golladay ($7,700) = $14,500
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 30 ranked pass defense allowing 285.3 yards per game
Game Total - 50.5
Implied Totals - Lions at 24 points and Raiders at 26 points
Game Line - Detroit Lions +2
The Detroit Lions are on the road versus the Oakland Raiders on Sunday for a Week 9 matchup that has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. This game has the second-highest total of the week (50.5), and both teams should be able to move the ball with their passing games in this one. Both teams struggle to defend the pass, and there is strong potential for this game to go over the total.
Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career to this point in the 2019 season. He has thrown for 16 scores and four interceptions to go along with 2093 yards in his first seven games this season. He will add to those numbers this week.
The Raiders have given up 19 scores through the air, and only one team across the league has given up more. They are surrendering an 8.6-yard average which is fourth-highest in the NFL. The Raiders have given up 35 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. They have given up eight passing plays of 40-plus yards, and only two teams in the NFL have allowed more.
Consider that the Raiders have only defended 242 passes (only six teams have defended fewer attempts), and the numbers they are allowing to the passing game are significant. The Lions are struggling to run the ball, and if they get into a shootout, it will be Stafford leading the way with the Lions throwing the ball.
The Lions implied number is 24 points, and if they are going to get there, the passing game will be driving the bus. When looking at the Raiders pass defense, it is not difficult to see the Lions putting up big numbers through volume, and Stafford and the passing attack have a big day in store.
Golladay is the first option in the Lions passing attack, but the Lions take what defenses give them, and you can stack wide receiver Marvin Jones just as easily as Golladay. It seems that one of them is going off on a week by week basis, but Golladay is getting the vertical looks from Stafford.
Golladay has 28 targets over the past four games, catching 24 passes for 332 yards and four scores. There is a definite path to GPP productivity for Golladay, and he should be able to exploit this matchup in Week 9.
The game script is very positive for the Lions passing game, and the Lions defense is struggling which may force Stafford to keep his foot on the gas. That would be a great thing for the passing game on Sunday.
Pivot: Wide receiver Marvin Jones ($5,700 at FanDuel and $6,000 at DraftKings) is an intriguing option as he is capable of a huge game, as evidenced by his four-score game two weeks ago. He is secondary to Golladay, but his red-zone ability makes him a worthy GPP option this week.
Wide receiver Danny Amendola ($6,000 at FanDuel and $4,700 at DraftKings) has had a strong run over the past two games, seeing 19 targets and catching 16 passes for 200 yards.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson ($5,000 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) is capable of making plays in the passing attack, but his usage is down recently. He is worth a flier as he can make plays when given opportunities, and the matchup is undoubtedly favorable for the Lions passing game as a whole.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Sam Darnold + Robby Anderson
FanDuel: Darnold ($7,300) + Anderson ($6,200) = $13,500
DraftKings: Darnold ($5,900) + Anderson ($5,500) = $11,400
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 20 ranked pass defense allowing 253.6 yards per game
Game Total - 41.5
Implied Totals - Jets at 22 points and Dolphins at 19 points
Game Line - New York Jets -3
The New York Jets are on the road versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 9 AFC East matchup. The Dolphins are actively tanking, and the Jets might take advantage of them in a big way on Sunday.
Darnold has had an interesting sophomore campaign, marked by a bout with mono that sidelined him for three weeks. He then jumped into the starting lineup and had three tough matchups against Dallas, New England, and last week versus Jacksonville. Things will be much easier this week against a very porous Dolphins defense.
The Dolphins have given up 18 scores through the air, and only three teams in the NFL have allowed more. They are surrendering an 8.9-yard average which is second-highest in the NFL. The Dolphins have given up 31 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are sixth-most in the NFL.
The Dolphins have generated nine sacks in 2019, and only one team in the NFL has fewer sacks to date. Darnold should have time to get comfortable to allow routes to develop, and he should be able to pick apart this defense with ease on Sunday.
Consider that the Dolphins have only defended 204 passes (only one team has defended fewer attempts), and the numbers they are allowing to the passing game are stunning. There is a clear path to GPP success for Darnold and the Jets passing attack.
Anderson is one of the game’s most dangerous vertical weapons as he can take the top off the defense in a flash. Darnold should have time to allow Anderson to get behind the Dolphins, and if they can connect, it could be for huge gains. Anderson could have a monster game on Sunday.
Now to the risk that is associated with stacking players in the game. The Jets implied number is low, and the expectation is for them to get to three touchdowns. Can the Jets go over that number to provide value to those deciding to roster any of the passing weapons here? Do the Dolphins score enough to make Darnold throw the ball much in Week 9?
If they do go over, do they get there passing the ball, or do they decide to utilize the running game to get there? There is much to consider here, but the Jets can hurt the Dolphins using their passing attack. This is not a safe stack, and it is a very bold play, but for those willing to take on risk, it could pay off.
Mitchell Trubisky + Allen Robinson
FanDuel: Trubisky ($6,500) + Robinson ($7,200) = $13,700
DraftKings: Trubisky ($5,000) + Robinson ($6,800) = $11,800
Facing the No. 16 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 21 ranked pass defense allowing 256.1 yards per game
Game Total - 43
Implied Totals - Bears at 19 points and Eagles at 24 points
Game Line - Chicago Bears +5
Before reading the following, be advised as this stack is not for the faint-hearted!
The Chicago Bears are on the road versus the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9, and they are a 5-point road underdog in this matchup. If this game goes along with the script, the Eagles are expected to be up in this game, and the Bears will have to rely on Trubisky and the passing game to keep them in this contest.
Trubisky has struggled mightily in 2019, playing poorly out of the gate, and then missing time with a shoulder injury. He returned in Week 7 and performed admirably against New Orleans while struggling last week against the Chargers. The Eagles pose challenges, but they are not defending the pass well, and if there is a way to beat them, it is through the air.
The Eagles have given up 16 scores through the air, and only five teams in the NFL have allowed more. The Eagles have given up eight passing plays of 40-plus yards, and only two teams in the NFL have given up more. The Eagles are giving up big plays, and Trubisky and Robinson should have an opportunity to connect on a few big ones on Sunday.
Trubisky is a very athletic quarterback, and he will have to use his feet to buy time in this contest because the Eagles do generate pressure on the quarterback. Trubisky was very useful last year generating rushing yards, but that has disappeared in 2019.
Robinson is the first option in the Bears passing game. He has 39 targets in the past four games, registering 29 catches for 323 yards and three scores over that span. Trubisky targeted him 16 times two weeks ago, and seven times last week. He will see plenty of targets against the Eagles.
Now to the abundant risk in rostering any of the Bears passing game options. Trubisky has looked very incapable at times, and he is at risk of losing his starting job. There is very little that we have seen of late that warrants considering him for GPP play, with the exception that the script is positive for the Bears passing attack, and through volume, we saw him look relatively productive two weeks ago.
The Bears have a low implied total, and the expectation is they will score fewer than three touchdowns. If Trubisky plays poorly, the Bears will not get to that number, or he will get benched in favor of backup quarterback Chase Daniel. However, he has a chance to be productive in this contest if he plays well, and there is a path for GPP production for Trubisky in Week 9.
LeVeon Bell + Jets Defense
FanDuel: Bell ($7,000) + Jets ($4,600) = $11,600
DraftKings: Bell ($7,700) + Jets ($3,500) = $11,200
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 31 ranked run defense allowing 160.4 yards per game
Game Total - 41.5
Implied Totals - Jets at 22 points and Dolphins at 19 points
Game Line - New York Jets -3
The New York Jets are on the road versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 9 AFC East matchup. The Jets are a three-point road favorite, and they should be able to take advantage of the Dolphins defense in a variety of ways on Sunday. They will be able to run the ball if they choose to do so.
Only one team in the NFL defends more runs on a per-game basis (33.3) than the Dolphins, and opposing runners are generating production through the amount of volume they are getting. The Dolphins allow a 4.8-yard average, and only four teams across the league allow a higher average.
The Dolphins have allowed eight scores in the ground which are third-most in the NFL. They have also yielded two runs of 40-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL. Bell can do damage to the Dolphins defense while running the ball on Sunday.
The Jets have struggled to generate pressure to this point in 2019, but they get a Dolphins offensive line that has surrendered the fourth-most sacks (28) in the NFL. The Jets are a stout run defense allowing a 3.3-yard average which is second-fewest in the NFL. They are going to force the Dolphins to throw the ball, and they will generate production through volume.
It is conceivable to see the Jets up and utilizing the running game to grind out the clock while forcing the Dolphins to throw the ball to hang in this contest. That means great things for this stack, and it has a chance to shine on Sunday, making it an excellent option for GPP play in Week 9.