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Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
FanDuel: Jackson ($8,600) + Brown ($5,300) = $13,900
DraftKings: Jackson ($7,300) + Brown ($5,100) = $12,400
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 22 ranked pass defense allowing 258.1 yards per game
Game Total - 45.5
Implied Totals - Ravens at 27.5 points and Bengals at 18 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -9.5
The Baltimore Ravens are on the road this weekend as they face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for a Week 9 AFC East matchup. The Ravens are expected to near four touchdowns in the game, and it is not all that difficult to see Jackson and company going over in this game.
Jackson is playing excellent football in 2019, throwing for 12 touchdowns and five interceptions through eight games. He has thrown for 1813 yards, and on the ground, he has accumulated 637 yards to go with five scores. Jackson is beating teams with his arm and his legs. He has a chance to have a huge game this week as the Bengals are struggling to defend the pass.
The Bengals have allowed 11 scores through the air, which is thirteenth-best in the NFL. The positives end there. They have also yielded 36 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only four teams in the NFL allow more. They have also given up seven passing plays of 40-plus yards which are fifth-most in the NFL.
The Bengals have struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback, registering only nine sacks to date. Only one team in the league has fewer sacks in 2019. Jackson can be very dangerous when given time in the pocket, and he will have extra time in this game. When he is pressured, he can easily outrun angles and produce huge rushing totals.
Brown is the vertical option in the Ravens passing attack, and he returned last week after a three-game layoff due to an ankle injury. He is capable of taking the top off the defense in an instant, and that makes him a lethal threat when Jackson has time to allow his routes to develop.
Jackson may take a few vertical shots down the field on Sunday, and they will go to Brown. Brown does not need heavy volume to get to GPP value as he can score from a distance in a flash, and it is not hard to see a path for GPP success for him this week. The Jackson and Brown stack is an excellent GPP option for Week 10, and one that could pay off in a big way.
Pivot: Tight end Mark Andrews ($6,800 at FanDuel and $5,200 at DraftKings) has turned into an excellent fantasy option as the Ravens first option in their passing attack. He is worthy of selection due to the matchup and the high implied number for the Ravens.
Tight end Nick Boyle ($4,300 at FanDuel and $2,500 at DraftKings) is an inline tight end first, and that means he is a blocker before he enters the equation as a passer. That said, he did see five targets last week (there is risk in buying into that number as the Ravens went with heavy personnel in that matchup), and he caught all five for 27 yards and a score. Consider that might be last week’s script and less what we will see this week, but he may be worth a shot in this matchup.
FanDuel: Brees ($8,300) + Thomas ($8,700) = $17,000
DraftKings: Brees ($6,700) + Thomas ($8,300) = $15,000
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 23 ranked pass defense allowing 261.1 yards per game
Game Total - 51
Implied Totals - Saints at 32 points and Falcons at 19 points
Game Line - New Orleans Saints -13
The New Orleans Saints are at home versus the Atlanta Falcons for a Week 10 NFC South contest, and they are a 13-point home favorite in this matchup. This game has the second-highest total of the week (51), and the implied number for the Saints has them over four scores (32). The Saints have the opportunity to put up big numbers against a struggling Falcons defense this week.
Brees tore a ligament in his thumb and missed almost six weeks of action before returning in Week 8 versus the Arizona Cardinals. He went off in Week 8, throwing for 373 yards and three scores to go along with an interception. Brees should light up the Falcons secondary this week and add to the numbers he put up before the bye.
The Falcons have given up 19 scores through the air which are third-most in the NFL. They allow an 8.5-yard average which is fifth-most in the NFL. They have given up 32 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are eleventh-most in the NFL.
Now consider that the Falcons have only defended 31.2 passes per game (only five teams across the league have defended fewer), and those numbers show how easy they are to beat with the pass. Another consideration here is the Falcons cannot pressure the quarterback. The Falcons have generated seven sacks in 2019, and no team in the NFL has fewer sacks in 2019.
Brees is going to have time to maneuver inside the pocket, buying time to let routes develop. He is going to gouge the Falcons via the pass, and he has a chance to have a massive game on Sunday.
Thomas is easily the first option in the Saints passing attack, and he saw 11 targets in Brees’ return in Week 8, catching 11 passes for 112 yards and a score. The script is incredibly positive for the Saints passing attack, and Thomas should be able to exploit this matchup in a significant way.
Pivot: Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr Jr. ($5,300 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) is the vertical option in the Saints passing attack, and it will not take much volume for him to find GPP success. Rostering Ginn requires a bit of a flier mentality, but he is explosive and can make big plays happen in a flash.
Jameis Winston + Mike Evans
FanDuel: Winston ($7,900) + Evans ($8,600) = $16,500
DraftKings: Winston ($6,800) + Evans ($7,600) = $14,400
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 29 ranked pass defense allowing 280.7 yards per game
Game Total - 51.5
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 28 points and Cardinals at 23.5 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at home versus the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday for a Week 10 NFC matchup that has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. This game has the highest total of the week (51.5), and both teams should be able to move the ball via their pass in this one.
Both teams struggle to defend the pass, and there is strong potential for this game to go over the total. The Buccaneers have allowed 19 scores through the air (third-most), and the Cardinals have surrendered 24. It is not difficult to see this game going over, and there is value in this matchup.
Winston is volatile as he is turnover prone, but the Buccaneers defense has him throwing the ball a ton. He has thrown for 1240 yards to go with seven scores and six interceptions over the past four games.
As mentioned above, the Cardinals have given up 24 scores through the air which are most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.3-yard average which is sixth-highest in the NFL. The Cardinals have given up 39 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. The game script is signaling for plenty of passing for both teams, and that means big things for Winston.
The Buccaneers implied number is 28 points, and if they are going to get there, the passing game will be primary in this matchup. When looking at the Cardinals pass defense, it is not difficult to see the Buccaneers putting up big numbers through volume. Winston and the passing attack have a big day in store in Week 10.
Evans is the first option in the Buccaneers passing attack. Still, you can stack wide receiver Chris Godwin just as easily as Evans as both see enough volume to warrant consideration. Both are legitimate No. 1 wide receivers, and both get enough work every week. However, Evans has emerged over the past several games.
Evans has 48 targets over the past four games (45 in the previous three games), catching 32 passes for 474 yards and three scores. There is a definite path to GPP productivity for Evans, and he should be able to exploit this matchup in Week 10.
Pivot: Wide receiver Chris Godwin ($8,200 at FanDuel and $7,400 at DraftKings) is a fantastic option for GPP play in Week 10. He has 38 targets over the past four games, catching 28 passes for 380 yards and two scores. He has a chance to put up huge numbers in this matchup.
The Cardinals struggle to handle the tight end, and let’s look at what they have done this year. They gave up six catches, 131 yards, and a score to T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 against the Lions. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews lit them up for eight catches, 112 yards, and a score in Week 2.
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen hit the Cardinals for 75 yards, two scores, and six catches in Week 3. In Week 4, it was Seahawks tight end Will Dissly’s turn. He went for seven catches, 57 yards, and a score. The Cardinals slowed the Bengals tight ends in Week 5, but Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton did miss tight end Tyler Eifert in the red zone.
It was Falcons tight end Austin Hooper’s turn to light up the Cardinals defense in Week 6, and he delivered. He had eight catches for 117 yards and a score. In Week 8, backup quarterback Taysom Hill and tight end Josh Hill took advantage of this matchup. 49ers tight end George Kittle caught six passes for 79 yards and a score against the Cardinals last week.
Tight end Cameron Brate ($5,100 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) is an excellent pass-catching option, and a worthy GPP play this week. He has a definitive path to GPP value in this matchup, and I would not hesitate to roster Brate this week.
Tight end O.J. Howard ($5,000 at FanDuel and $3,300 at DraftKings) has disappointed this year as he does not see much work as a pass-catcher, but he remains a gifted athlete. He missed the last two games with a hamstring issue, but he practiced in full Wednesday, and he should play this week. Howard is a risky option coming off the hamstring injury, and he has not been an impactful part of the offense in 2019. However, he might offer variance from Brate and could be a savvy play for GPP tournaments in Week 10. Again, this matchup is glorious, and the tight end will hurt the Cardinals on Sunday.
FanDuel: Murray ($7,300) + Kirk ($5,700) = $13,000
DraftKings: Murray ($5,900) + Kirk ($5,200) = $11,100
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 293.5 yards per game
Game Total - 51.5
Implied Totals - Cardinals at 23.5 points and Buccaneers at 28 points
Game Line - Arizona Cardinals +4.5
The Arizona Cardinals are on the road versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday for a Week 10 NFC matchup. This matchup has the highest total of the week (51.5), and as mentioned above, it is worth noting that both teams struggle to defend the pass, which paves the way for this game to be a shootout.
The game script is exceptionally favorable for both offenses, and if the Buccaneers are going to score four touchdowns (or more), then it means Murray is throwing the ball all over the yard to stay in this game. If the Buccaneers offense forces the Cardinals to put the foot on the accelerator, then Murray will post gigantic numbers on Sunday.
Murray has been up and down in his rookie season. He has looked terrific at times, but the numbers have not been consistent. Rostering him this week is more about the defense he is playing against, and looking back a few weeks to a similar matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan threw four touchdown passes against the Cardinals, and that forced Murray to win the game with his arm. Murray threw the ball 37 times, connecting on 27 passes and accumulating 340 yards to pair with three scores. If you are playing Murray, you are hoping for a similar game, and the game script is pointing at that.
Murray is also boosting his value with his rushing totals as he has 313 yards rushing and two scores through nine games. He should be able to exploit this matchup, and he will be productive as a passer and as a runner in Week 10.
The Buccaneers have given up 19 scores through the air, and only two teams in the NFL have allowed more. They are surrendering a 7.7-yard average which is ninth-highest in the NFL. The Buccaneers have given up 33 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are eighth-most in the NFL. They have also yielded six passing plays of 40-plus yards, and only seven teams in the NFL have allowed more.
The game script is calling for a significant amount of passing from both sides, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have consistently defended a heavy volume of passing plays in 2019. They have defended the most passing plays (40.8) per game, and Murray needs to stretch well before this game kicks off as he is going to throw a lot in Week 10.
The Buccaneers have generated 19 sacks in 2019, and only eight teams in the NFL have fewer sacks to date. Murray should not see much pressure, and he should be able to get comfortable and into a nice rhythm against Tamp Bay’s defense.
While Murray is spreading the ball to many different weapons, he has honed in on Kirk in the quick-throwing passing game. Kirk missed three games with an ankle injury, but he has responded with 16 targets over the past two games since returning from injury.
He sees more target volume than any other Cardinals receiver, and he could have a big game against the Buccaneers in Week 10. Kirk has a viable path to GPP value, and he is an excellent GPP option in Week 10.
Pivot: Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald ($6,200 at FanDuel and $5,500 at DraftKings) is one of the best receivers to ever play in the NFL, but he has not been given enough volume to expand his ceiling to this point in 2019. His upside has been capped, but he may go off in this high-scoring matchup.
Wide receiver KeeSean Johnson ($4,600 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) is an excellent GPP option because of his cost in combination with the game script and the matchup. It is tough to look at his history and see him as a worthy option, but he is in Week 10 because he can get to value easily in this contest.
Mark Ingram + Ravens Defense
FanDuel: Ingram ($8,000) + Ravens ($5,000) = $13,000
DraftKings: Ingram ($7,100) + Ravens ($4,000) = $11,100
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 177.6 yards per game
Game Total - 45.5
Implied Totals - Ravens at 27.5 points and Bengals at 18 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -9.5
The Baltimore Ravens are on the road versus the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for a Week 10 AFC East matchup. The Ravens are a 9.5-point road favorite, and they should be able to take advantage of the Bengals defense via the run on Sunday.
No team in the NFL defends more runs on a per-game basis (34.9) than the Bengals, and opposing runners are generating production through the amount of volume they are getting. The Bengals allow a 5.1-yard average, and no team across the league allows a higher average.
The Bengals have allowed 10 scores on the ground which is third-most in the NFL. They have also yielded 15 runs of 20-plus yards which are most in the NFL. Ingram is going to have an opportunity to have a monster game against a very poor Bengals run defense this weekend.
The Ravens have struggled to generate pressure to this point in 2019, producing only 14 sacks this season. However, they get a Bengals offensive line that has surrendered the seventh-most sacks (29) in the NFL to this point in the season, and they also get a rookie quarterback in the first start of his career.
The Bengals have opted to go with quarterback Ryan Finley over veteran quarterback Andy Dalton, and the Ravens should be able to rattle him via pressure which will lead to sacks and turnovers. There is a path for GPP success for the Ravens defense in this contest, and the game script has Finley dropping back plenty in this contest.
We will likely see the Ravens up and utilizing the running game to grind out the clock while forcing the Ravens to throw the ball to hang in this contest. That means great things for this stack, and it has a chance to shine on Sunday, making it an excellent option for GPP play in Week 10.
Aaron Jones + Packers Defense
FanDuel: Jones ($7,600) + Packers ($4,000) = $11,600
DraftKings: Jones ($7,400) + Packers ($3,200) = $10,600
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 26 ranked run defense allowing 133.4 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Packers at 26 points and Panthers at 21 points
Game Line - Green Bay Packers -5
The Green Bay Packers are at home versus the Carolina Panthers on Sunday for a Week 10 matchup. The Packers are a five-point home favorite, and they will attack their opponents’ weakness in this game, and that happens to be the Panthers run defense.
The Panthers allow a 5.1-yard average which is the highest average allowed in the NFL in 2019. The Panthers have allowed 14 scores in the ground which are third-most in the NFL. They have surrendered 11 runs of 20-plus yards which are second-most across the league. They have also yielded four runs of 40-plus yards which are most in the NFL.
It is not difficult to see how Jones can do damage to the Panthers defense while running the ball on Sunday. Jones is a very potent weapon as a runner and as a receiver, and he has a chance to light it up in this contest.
The Panthers have surrendered the ninth-most sacks (26) in the NFL, and the game script has the Packers up and forcing the Panthers to open up the offense and throw the ball to stay in the game. That means more chances for sacks, and while the Packers have been a middle of the pack defense in terms of sacks, they will have more opportunities there this week.
Both sides of this stack should be very productive on Sunday, and it makes for a super intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 10.
Marlon Mack + Colts Defense
FanDuel: Mack ($7,400) + Colts ($4,900) = $12,300
DraftKings: Mack ($7,000) + Colts ($3,500) = $10,500
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 31 ranked run defense allowing 150.8 yards per game
Game Total - 43.5
Implied Totals - Colts at 27 points and Dolphins at 16.5 points
Game Line - Indianapolis Colts -10
The Indianapolis Colts are at home versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 10 AFC matchup. The Colts are a 10-point home favorite, and the game script has them running the ball early and often in this contest. Mack should have a big game against the Dolphins on Sunday as the Colts will lean on their ground game this week.
Only two teams in the NFL defend more runs on a per-game basis (31.8) than the Dolphins. The Dolphins allow a 4.7-yard average, and only five teams across the league allow a higher average. They have also yielded two runs of 40-plus yards, and only four teams league-wide have allowed more.
The Dolphins are a middle of the pack run defense in regards to touchdowns allowed (12 teams have given up more), but Mack should get opportunities to get into the end zone in this contest. Mack will have a chance to take advantage of a combination of weak run defense and volume.
The Colts defense faces a Dolphins offensive line that has surrendered the third-most sacks (32) in the NFL. Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has started six games in 2019, and he has thrown seven interceptions. Fitzpatrick will put the ball into areas of danger, and the Colts secondary might be able to take advantage of him in this game.
The game script has the Colts up and running the ball while forcing the Dolphins to throw the ball to stay in the game. The outlook is very positive for Mack and the Colts defense in Week 10, and it is an excellent option for GPP play in Week 10.