DFS Roundtable: Target or Fade Wide Receivers

Chad Parsons's DFS Roundtable: Target or Fade Wide Receivers Chad Parsons Published 11/21/2019

Which overtly strong and weak matchups are you using to influence your DFS lineups and exposure in Week 12?

Strong Matchups

  • Falcons
  • Raiders
  • Colts
  • Buccaneers
  • Jets


Weak Matchups

  • Cowboys
  • Bills
  • Patriots
  • Panthers

JASON WOOD

Falcons

Julio Jones is one of the safest high-priced options this week given the matchup, and the Falcons' inability to run the ball now that they're down to Brian Hill in the backfield. Calvin Ridley is also enticing given his price, and the fact his target share is secure with Austin Hooper injured. Matt Ryan, by proxy, is a top-3 option this week.

Raiders

Darren Waller will be a chalky option every week, and it's justified. Tyrell Williams remains a better GPP option than cash option; he's just too inconsistent. Hunter Renfrow is another low-priced GPP option that frees up salary for investments elsewhere. I'm much higher on Derek Carr this week than consensus and see him as a top-5 option in both cash and GPP builds. Josh Jacobs is also a cash-game option but is probably better faded in GPPs if his ownership is high.

Cowboys
The Patriots defense went on the road this week and held the Eagles to 10 points at home, so expecting Dallas to put up a bonanza is unreasonable. Yet, the Cowboys have the talent on the offensive line to execute a balanced attack. I wouldn't avoid Ezekiel Elliott, but he's not a top option among the high-priced running backs.

PHIL ALEXANDER

Strong Matchups

Weak Matchups

  • Cowboys - It's tough to get excited about a hobbled Amari Cooper facing shadow coverage from Stephon Gilmore. If Gilmore locks down Cooper, Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb could see some overflow targets but they face difficult matchups of their own. All three have tournament upside but none are high-exposure plays.

Justin Bonnema

Strong Matchups

Falcons – this is the most obvious and chalky spot of the week. It’s also priced up accordingly, making power stacks of Ryan, Jones, and Ridley with a Bucs receiver on the other side difficult.

Raiders – I don’t much interest in the Raiders’ offense, but Williams’ salary on DraftKings is tough to overlook. He should hit in this matchup.

Colts – Thankfully this game is on Thursday night. I wouldn’t have much interest in it if it were on the main slate.

Buccaneers – My confidence in this offense changes every week. While a game-stack is tempting, I’m considering fading this situation.

Jets – I won’t blame anyone else for targeting this game, but I won’t have much action on it other than (again) chasing Anderson’s big game.
Weak Matchups

Cowboys – Cooper really struggled last week with an injury and shadow coverage from Darius Slay. He has an even tougher matchup this week, but he strikes me as a solid contrarian option in large tournaments.

Bills – Perhaps I'll change my mind by the weekend, I don’t have any interest in this game other than Denver running backs.

Patriots – My bet is the Patriots attempt to establish their rushing attack against a defense that has been vulnerable in that area. But outside of James White, this passing attack is a fade.

Panthers – After last week, it’s hard to trust Kyle Allen, but D.J. Moore still produced. I like him again this week even if Marshon Lattimore returns.

Justin Howe

  • Falcons – They’re the clear chalk, and Calvin Ridley is a cash staple. Weird to say for such an uneven producer, but the value is there.
  • Raiders – Tyrell Williams faces a cherry matchup with the Jets’ reserve-level outside cornerbacks. Their slot man, Brian Poole, is fantastic, but Williams won’t see his coverage.
  • Buccaneers – The Atlanta secondary has taken massive steps forward over the past two weeks. Between that, Jameis Winston’s injury, and the general inconsistency around this unit, I’m taking a week off.
  • Jets – It’s gonna happen for Robby Anderson. At some point, it is, if only for a brief flash. He and Sam Darnold occasionally sync up on the deep ball, and a 4-100-2 game will tilt GPPs. Why not push in some chips when he’s facing Daryl Worley?
  • Cowboys – All of these guys face poor matchups, but I don’t agree with Vegas’ low projection for the Cowboys (19.75). Gallup won’t draw more than 2-5% ownership, and there’s a better chance than that that (1) the Cowboys score 31 points in a semi-shootout, and (2) Cooper is locked down and erased by Stephon Gilmore.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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