SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
A lot of news has hit over the last 24 hours.
Aaron Jones it is looking like he will miss this game with a groin injury suffered in practice. This will elevate Jamaal Williams to the starting role which makes him a great cash play. There is some concern whether AJ Dillon will eat into his carries, but it should be a 75/25% split this week for Williams unless he struggles. With how bad the Texans are, I currently have Williams ahead of Gio Bernard as the value cash game play.
The Bills cornerback situation is turning into a mess. Josh Norman and Levi Wallace are out, and Tre'Davious White and Cam Lewis are both questionable. This should greatly help Breshad Perriman's chances at hitting value this week. However, going with Perriman is probably not a must start great cash game option based on Jamaal Williams and Gio Bernard both being such great values. He could be in consideration if you wanted to play someone like George Kittle. Going with the Washington Football Team defense over the Cowboys due to all of the offensive line issues with the Cowboys. Washington has 16 sacks on the season and Andy Dalton looked terrible last week.
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,400
- RB Kareem Hunt, CLE, $7,100
- RB Jamaal Williams, GB, $5,000
- WR- Stefon Diggs, Min, $7,500
- WR Terry McLaurin, Was, $7,100
- WR Tyler Boyd, Cin, $6,000
- TE Hunter Henry, LAC, $5,800
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,300
- TD Washington Football Team, $3,800
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Green Bay (at HOU)- 30 points
- Seattle (at ARI)- 29.75 points
- New Orleans (vs CAR)- 28.5 points
- Buffalo (at NYJ)- 28.5 points
- Atlanta (vs DET)- 28.5 points
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 7
Significant Overlap
This week there is slated to be significant overlap across the industry as the cash game builds are likely going to be similar or near the same. So, how should we account for this? If you’ve followed this article by now, you’ll know that the recommendation has always been to try and take on a significant amount of diversity in head-to-head games. However, this week, we are changing course a little bit, and targeting the low dollar small field 50/50 contests.
The contests that run that are typically 100 people that are not guaranteed to fill are the ones to target. Take last week for example, Alexander Mattison was the “must-start” guy, and put results aside, he was only 81% rostered in 50/50 contests. Now Mattison didn’t work out (thankfully Derrick Henry and Deshaun Watson pulled it through for the primary cash lineup), but it shows that there are some players who are not paying attention nearly as close as others.
This still remains a risky strategy as it is a bit of all-or-nothing as these contests typically have around the same cash line score, but in a week like this the recommendation would be to take a little risk, and deviate from the Head-to-Head strategy that we’ve went deep into each year.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
Joe Mixon will miss this week with a foot injury which will propel Gio Bernard into the starting role against Cleveland. On full PPR sites, Bernard is a must play, however on FanDuel, he is a great salary relief play and should exceed value on cash games, but will be extremely popular in tournaments and could be a nice contrarian option to fade this week.
Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both out this week. What is crazy here is that the line has not moved much as it started with New Orleans projected to score 29.25 points and it is down to 28.5 points. So, the question is who does New Orleans go to, and the answer is likely Alvin Kamara this week. TreQuan Smith is an intriguing cheap wide receiver who should see close to 10 targets,
Austin Hooper will miss this week due to an Appendectomy. David Njoku is getting all the love here, and we need to assess if that is the right move. The Browns love Harrison Bryant while Njoku has come out this week and requested a trade. This is likely a stay-away situation as we will get into the tight end play this week, but it is something to monitor particularly if there is news regarding snap counts or one player receiving more volume.
Aaron Jones is questionable this week with a calf injury which is terrible news as he did not practice all week. Jones was slated to be one of the key cash core players going up against a Houston defense that has been unable to stop anyone on the ground this year. If he doesn’t play, Jamaal Williams will likely be one of the better plays on the slate. If he does play, the concern for cash games is that he won’t receive enough volume and that it could be split due to the injury.
Jamison Crowder is also questionable after he was only able to get a limited practice in this week due to a groin injury suffered in practice. If he’s unable to go, more targets should funnel to Breshad Perriman, although he’s more of a GPP play than a cash game play this week.
Weather Concern
The Chiefs and Broncos game appears to have some weather concerns which is extremely disappointing in what should have been a good spot for the Chiefs. There appears to be 3-5 inches of snow coming to Denver during the game tomorrow with 10-15 mph winds. While the wind is not of extreme concern, the snow is less than ideal. Vegas has reacted to a concern dropping the total from 46.5 down to 44.5 indicating there is some level of concern here based on their historical weather models.
KEY CASH CORE
Note: We are intentionally leaving Alvin Kamara and Gio Bernard off of this as we touched on them earlier in the articles. They are fantastic plays and will be rostered by nearly every cash game lineup this week. Bernard does come with some risk, but at $4,800 provides a nice salary relief.
Kyler Murray, $8,400
Kyler Murray as a quarterback looked terrible last week against the Cowboys completing just 9 of his 24 pass attempts. However, what Murray does is so much more than throw the ball. Murray has rushed for a touchdown in each game except one this season and is averaging 61 yards rushing per game. This week, Murray faces an interesting matchup in Seattle as their run defense has been solid, but their pass defense has been atrocious this year allowing 377 yards passing. They also have had trouble stopping quarterbacks from finding the end zone as they have allowed three rushing touchdowns in their five contests this season.
Kareem Hunt has struggled so far in his first two games as a full-time starter with Nick Chubb being sidelined, but he will get his first positive matchup since taking over the position as he faces Cincinnati this week. On the season, the Bengals are allowing 119 yards rushing per game, including allowing 210 yards to the Browns back in Week 2 and four touchdowns to Hunt and Chubb in that game. It’s a matchup that is one of the better ones that Hunt will face all year as the Bengals are allowing 5.2 yards per carry and are desperately missing D.J. Reader who was likely lost for the year back in Week 5.
Hunter Henry- $5,800
While Travis Kelce or George Kittle may be more appealing in this spot, Hunter Henry offers enough salary relief to not have to take significant risks at the wide receiver position. Outside of a game against Tampa Bay Henry has 7 or more targets in all of his games this season. Jacksonville is allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends averaging 62 yards per game and 0.8 touchdowns per contest. The best tight end that Jacksonville has faced was Jonnu Smith and they allowed 84 yards and 2 touchdowns. Expect big things for Henry this week.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 145.5)
- QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,400
- RB Kareem Hunt, CLE, $7,100
- RB Gio Bernard, CIN, $4,800
- WR- Stefon Diggs, Min, $7,500
- WR Terry McLaurin, Was, $7,100
- WR Tyler Boyd, Cin, $6,000
- TE Hunter Henry, LAC, $5,800
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,300
- TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – CASH + (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 140.3)
- QB Joe Burrow, Cin, $7,100
- RB Kareem Hunt, CLE, $7,100
- RB Gio Bernard, CIN, $4,800
- WR- Davante Adams, GB, $8,900
- WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,300
- WR Tyler Boyd, Cin, $6,000
- TE Hunter Henry, LAC, $5,800
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,300
- TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Houston Green Bay Stack- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 139.3)
- QB Deshaun Watson, Hou, $8,000
- RB Kareem Hunt, CLE, $7,100
- RB Gio Bernard, CIN, $4,800
- WR- Davante Adams, GB, $8,900
- WR Will Fuller, Hou, $6,900
- WR Robby Anderson, CAR, $6,400
- TE George Kittle, SF, $7,100
- Flex RB- Todd Gurley, ATL, $6,600
- TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,700
NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL
Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.
|
Position |
Player Name |
Salary |
Projected Points |
Hvalue |
Pt/$ |
|
RB |
E. Elliott |
9500 |
19.20 |
35.2 |
2.0 |
|
RB |
A. Kamara |
9300 |
22.05 |
45.6 |
2.4 |
|
QB |
P. Mahomes |
9000 |
24.78 |
57.7 |
2.8 |
|
WR |
D. Hopkins |
9000 |
16.15 |
27.5 |
1.8 |
|
RB |
D. Henry |
8900 |
17.65 |
32.4 |
2.0 |
|
WR |
D. Adams |
8900 |
16.90 |
30.1 |
1.9 |
|
QB |
J. Allen |
8800 |
22.98 |
51.8 |
2.6 |
|
QB |
R. Wilson |
8700 |
23.24 |
53.4 |
2.7 |
|
WR |
M. Thomas |
8600 |
0.000 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
RB |
A. Jones |
8500 |
13.50 |
21.4 |
1.6 |
|
QB |
K. Murray |
8400 |
25.74 |
66.1 |
3.1 |
|
WR |
C. Ridley |
8400 |
14.85 |
25.5 |
1.8 |
|
WR |
J. Jones |
8300 |
14.90 |
25.9 |
1.8 |
|
QB |
A. Rodgers |
8100 |
20.64 |
46.7 |
2.5 |
|
QB |
D. Watson |
8000 |
22.26 |
53.9 |
2.8 |
|
WR |
T. Hill |
8000 |
14.20 |
24.8 |
1.8 |
|
RB |
N. Chubb |
8000 |
0.000 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
TE |
T. Kelce |
7900 |
14.35 |
25.5 |
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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