Monday DFS Week 15

Photo: Brad Rempel, USA Today Sports

PSA:

We are going to keep these short and sweet this week simply because there is a ton going on with all of the Covid cancellations and we wanted to provide some detail on both the Monday and Tuesday games.

2 Game Monday Slate Thoughts:

QB Rankings:

1. Justin Fields- $5,300- Vikings allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Both Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray topped 35 DraftKings points against this defense. Highest upside on the slate
2. Kirk Cousins- $6,800- Great stacking opportunity, going up against a Bears defense that is coming off of a 341 yard 4 touchdown performance against Aaron Rodgers. Bears best corner Jaylon Johnson is placed on Covid list.
3. Nick Mullens- $4,900- Gunslinger who provides outstanding savings this week against a bad Raiders secondary.
4. Derek Carr- $6,200- Too expensive for a difficult matchup. Carr has 12 or fewer DraftKings points in three of his last four games.

RB Rankings:

1. Dalvin Cook- Close to a must play at $8,500 and the other savings opportunities. Bears run defense is good, but has shown cracks throughout the season as they have allowed 19 DraftKings points or more to 6 running backs this season.
2. David Montgomery- Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery have been very similar players as of late as they both have been heavily utilized in the passing game with Montgomery catching 14 passes over his last two games, but consistent rushing volume has been an issue as Montgomery had just 10 carries in his last game. Both players rushing upside should increase here as they’re expected to be close games, but the difference for Montgomery slightly gaining the edge over Jacobs is the matchup. The Vikings have allowed 15 or more fantasy points in five of their last six games as they continue to struggle with health on the defensive side of the ball.
3. Josh Jacobs- The Raiders have increased Jacobs workload as a receiver over the last two weeks as he has caught 14 passes in that time. Facing a difficult Cleveland defense, Jacobs could be in line for a heavy pass catching workload. The Browns have been hit or miss when it comes to defending the run as they got shredded by D’Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Najee Harris in three consecutive weeks, but outside of that have been mostly solid.
4. Nick Chubb- With all the uncertainty in Cleveland, it is hard to start Nick Chubb here unless you’re in a GPP format. The Browns are going to be without both tackles in this game and are facing a Raiders team that has been worse against the pass than the run. Chubb has struggled the last two games and his lack of rushing upside might make it difficult for him to reach full value.

WR Rankings:

1. Justin Jefferson- By far the best wide receiver on this slate. Jefferson has 29 targets over the last two weeks as Adam Thielen is far less than 100% as there were conflicting reports whether he was even able to make it through Saturday’s practice. The Vikings should lean heavily on Jefferson in this game. If you can only fit one in of Cook and Jefferson, Jefferson is likely the preferred option here based on the PPR scoring of DraftKings
2. Hunter Renfrow- What does Renfrow need to do to have his price increased? Renfrow has 24 targets over his last two games and has three straight 100-yard games. With the Brown defense depleted defense due to Covid-19 they will likely be forced to slide M.J. Stewart the backup safety down to the slot to cover Renfrow.
3. Donovan Peoples-Jones- With no Jarvis Landry, Peoples-Jones should be expected to step up this week as the Browns number one wide receiver. Peoples-Jones is coming off of a 7-target game last week and has shown an ability to get down the field something that Mullens excels at and is not afraid to take chances. At $4,200, Peoples-Jones provides a nice salary relief on this slate.
4. Darnell Mooney- Mooney is an interesting candidate this week as he had a very bad last game in which he only had one reception last game, but in his three games prior, Mooney had 31 targets topping 100 yards in two of those three games. Mooney has versatile upside as the Bears try to get him the ball, but the problem is the lack of touchdowns as he has just three receiving touchdowns on the season.

TE Rankings:

1. Harrison Bryant- This tight end slate is incredibly ugly, so taking a player at minimum salary may be the way to go here to be able to spend up at other positions. Bryant is a limited tight end, but should see an increase in workload based off of Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper both being out and David Njoku’s role likely not to change that significantly.
2. Foster Moreau- You can certainly pay up for Foster Moreau who will likely be the most expensive player on this slate, but the idea of a player like Moreau filling in for Darren Waller is better than the actual player. What you get in Moreau is a limited player who has caught just 6 of his 16 targets over the last four games.

DEF Rankings:

1. Raiders- Nick Mullens has shown a tendency to be a gunslinger and with that come a lot of interceptions. Over his last six games as a starter, Mullens has thrown 9 interceptions and at least one in every game.

Monday Night Showdown Thoughts:

Game Strategy

This is a fairly tricky game as it is going to be finding the flex player that has the big game outside of the normal guys. Players like Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, and David Montgomery are going to be obvious plays, but choosing between players such as KJ Osborne, Damiere Byrd, Jakeem Grant, Cole Kmet, Tyler Conklin is going to be the difference. On this slate, you likely want to focus in on the wide receivers and go with the upside plays as they all pose some level of risk.

Once again apologies for the brevity of this article, there is a ton going on with the NFL in terms of Covid situations, rescheduled games, short timelines between games, holidays, and personal covid situation. Thank you for your understanding.

Captain Consideration:

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Dalvin Cook
3. David Montgomery
4. Justin Fields

Minnesota Vikings

QUARTERBACK

Kirk Cousins- Flex Only

Kirk Cousins is a good fantasy quarterback, but the problem is that he has two elite superstars at both the wide receiver and running back positions which causes him to get overlooked. Cousins has been consistently between 16 and 25 fantasy points over his last six games which is something that you want and is very valuable in your lineup, but he does not possess the 30+ point upside that players such as Cook and Jefferson have. He’s simply priced too high to be considered for the captain position this week. The Bears defense is missing a lot of key pieces as all four starters in the secondary are out for this game in Eddie Jackson, Artie Burns, Jaylon Johnson, Tashaun Gipson.

RUNNING BACK

Dalvin Cook- Great Captain/Flex

Is there much need to discuss how good Dalvin Cook is? He’s going to be the most popular player on this slate, but if there is a case against him, it is that he failed to top 100 yards in three straight games prior to his explosion against the Steelers last week. Deciding between Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook is really splitting hairs, but in a full PPR setup, and with Cook’s lack of receiving upside (just two games with more than 3 receptions), Jefferson is likely the top Captain play this week.

WIDE RECEIVER-

Justin Jefferson- Great Captain/Flex

Jefferson is the top player on this slate simply because of volume. With Adam Thielen far less than 100% and may miss this game, Jefferson should once again be in line for a massive game this week. Jefferson has 29 targets over his last two games as he has quickly become the top target for the Vikings. The Bears will also be without their top cornerback in Jaylon Johnson which will leave a massive hole in this defense to try to cover Jefferson.

Other Targets-

K.J. Osborne- Flex
Tyler Conklin- Flex
Wayne Gallman- Salary Relief Punt Play

Chicago Bears

QUARTERBACK

Justin Fields- Captain Only

Fields is likely a fade this week, but you could use him as a captain only as based off of history, the Vikings have struggled against mobile quarterbacks allowing 35 DraftKings points or more to Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson. Fields is not at the caliber of those players, but

RUNNING BACK

David Montgomery Mid-Captain, Good Flex

David Montgomery is in a good spot this week as the Bears should be behind, which should help his receiving upside as he has 14 receptions over his last two games which leads the team. Montgomery has shown upside, but it would likely take poor performances from Cook and Jefferson and perhaps a Bears win for Montgomery to be the top captain, but there is a path for him to do it this week.

WIDE RECEIVER

Darnell Mooney- Flex

Starting Darnell Mooney forces you to avoid recency bias as he struggled last game, but did have 31 targets in the three games prior to his last game. At just $7,400, he’s a nice value on a week where you’re going to need value plays to help build a competitive lineup.

OTHER TARGETS-

Cole Kmet- Flex
Damiere Byrd- Flex