Predicting Offseason Average Draft Position: Part 1

Photo: Bill Streicher, USA Today Sports

The turbulence of Free Agency and the NFL Draft have once again shifted the face of the NFL landscape. We are now at a point in the offseason where the waters have calmed down. Players are beginning to adjust to their new environments, rookie camps have taken place, and camp reports have started to shape expectations. In the world of fantasy football, the lights in mock draft lobbies have begun to flicker on, and people are beginning to practice for their respective fantasy drafts.

Average draft position, or ADP, is a term used to describe where a player is most often selected within a draft. During this time of year, namely June, the ADP of most players generally does not accurately represent their actual value going into the 2022 regular season. Current ADP instead reflects the perceptions of how said players may have ended the previous season, team changes, or the injuries from which they are recovering. This article aims to track the movement of specific players' ADP throughout the offseason and help us identify value within our drafts. However, it will also be a fun study in tracking how and why a player’s ADP has been affected.

This article will pull ADP from Footballguys and will cover the first 10 rounds of a draft under the scoring setting of a half-point per reception league. Within each round, we will discuss the player’s value and the reasoning for their ADP shift in the coming months. This article will be the first installment of three and we will revisit each player’s ADP once a month until the regular season begins.

Let’s get started.

Round 1: Joe Mixon

Going into the 2021 regular season, Joe Mixon was being drafted as the twentieth player overall in point-per-reception scoring formats. People were understandably skeptical of Mixon finishing as an RB1, given that he had only done it once before during his five-year career. Last year, Mixon vastly outperformed that ADP, finishing as the RB3 from weeks 1-17.

In June, Mixon is being drafted as the tenth player overall according to Footballguys ADP, and his utilization justifies his current cost. In 16 games last year, Mixon carried the ball 292 times, the third-highest attempt total among all running backs, while rushing for 13 touchdowns. This means that he scored a touchdown once every 22.5 rush attempts. Many would people would argue against Mixon being drafted at tenth overall. Their primary argument against him would be that his touchdowns have to regress to a historically average amount. Dating back to 2015, 15 running backs with at least 292 rush attempts averaged a rushing touchdown on a median of 22.5 attempts. Coincidentally, that is Mixon's exact rush attempt per touchdown rate. While there may be some regression, history tells us that it won't be by much.

Mixon was also adequate as a receiver. He saw 9.2 percent of the team’s targets in 2021. That was Mixon's highest percentage in the three years he has played under head coach Zac Taylor. Additionally, Mixon was sixth in routes run among all running backs in 2021 while being targeted on 17.4 percent of those routes. That was a percentage higher than what Dalvin Cook received in 2021. The top earners at the running back position saw above a 20 percent target rate on routes run. With no notable additions to the Cincinnati Bengals' backfield, Mixon's team targets and targets per route run seem safe for 2022.

When looking at recent historical trends and utilization, it's clear that Joe Mixon is set up for another RB1 finish in 2022 and is worth his draft cost.

ADP prediction: Mixon's current ADP holds. Maybe he is justifiably drafted over Dalvin Cook who is one spot higher.

Round 2: Aaron Jones

Jones is expected to see a significant increase in team target opportunities in 2022. Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders this offseason, which has created a large target vacuum in Green Bay. The Packers did little to address the wide receiver position through Free Agency and only drafted a raw wide receiver prospect in Christian Watson. In games that Adams has missed, Jones had averaged 22.89 fantasy points per game instead of 14.88 when Adam was active.

In regards to carries, Jones will be sharing a backfield with fellow running back A.J. Dillion, who outweighs Jones by 42 pounds. While seeing his fair share of targets, Dillon will serve as the early-down runner, but Jones will run away with the targets in that backfield. Jones finished 8th among running backs in routes run last year and was targeted on 21.6 percent of those routes. That is elite target volume for the running back position.

We've seen Jones finish as an RB1 with less volume. With Davante Adams now gone, Jones is in a prime spot to outproduce his ADP in 2022. Expect the Packers to feed Jones targets at a career-high rate.

ADP prediction: A rise up five spots due to people catching on to the narrative.

Round 3: Saquon Barkley

With Brain Daboll as the New York Giants' Head Coach, Saquon Barkley is legitimately set up to vault back as a top-five running back in 2022. Under Daboll, Buffalo Bills' starting running back Devin Singletary finished at exactly number three in routes run at the position in both 2020 and 2021. Singletary, however, was only targeted at a nominal rate of 13.8 and 12.9 percent of his routes.

Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley was 24th in routes run in 2021, yet had a target rate of 22.2 percent. Of the other 23 running backs ranked in front of Barkley, only Leonard Fournette, DAndre Swift, and Alvin Kamara had higher target rates. That is sterling company.

We've now seen Daboll's starting running back rank in the top three in routes run in back-to-back years. Couple that with Barkley, who is already receiving an elite target rate on his routes run, and it is a recipe for a top-five running back.

Barkley is currently being selected as the 26th player in drafts. One can assume that people are shying away from him because of his injury history. Not many people will recognize Daboll's running back utilization. In the third round, the league-winning upside is much too significant to pass up.

ADP prediction: Saquon Barkley will see a rise to the back of the 2nd round, but will still be undervalued.

Round 4: Michael Pittman

In 2021, from weeks 1 through 16, Michael Pittman finished the season as WR21 in total points scored and as WR28 in average points per game. He is currently being selected as the forty first player in drafts and WR15 overall. We saw Pittman receive a career-high 128 targets with Carson Wentz as his quarterback. Matt Ryan is now the Indianapolis Colts' quarterback, and Pittman should see more targets and higher quality targets. Pittman's 128 targets would justify his current ADP. To surpass it, though, he would need an increase in targets. An increase that he will likely see in 2022.

When studying team pass attempt percentages by different quarterbacks under Colts' Head Coach Frank Reich, it is apparent that he adjusts team pass attempt percentage based on individual skill:

• Andrew Luck (2018): 60.2 percent
• Phillip Rivers (2020): 53.5 percent
• Carson Wentz (2021): 49.5 percent

With Matt Ryan as the starting quarterback, the Colts' pass attempts should surpass Rivers' and Wentz's passing percentages. Additionally, the difference in the quality of throws between Ryan and Wentz is significant. In 2021 Ryan was ninth in on-target percentage throws while Wentz was 26th. Of all the wide receivers, Pittman was 55th in target accuracy with Carson Wentz. In Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Kyle Pitts' most recent seasons with Ryan, none finished worse than fifteenth in target accuracy.

Pittman will be unchallenged by any other wide receiver or tight end on the Colts in 2022. Given the arrival of Matt Ryan, the increase in target volume, and the quality of targets, Pittman's current ADP is more than justified.

ADP prediction: Pittman's ADP will rise into the third round as training camp reports begin to circulate about his and Ryan's developing chemistry and a couple of good performances in the preseason.