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This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
This is a great spot for all Detroit receivers as the Vikings continue to rank 31st against the pass. They were absolutely burned by Garrett Wilson and the Jets last week despite pulling off the win and the entire Lions' group of receivers should be upgraded this week. St. Brown will spend most of his time in the slot against Sullivan, who has allowed 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap this season, Jared Goff finished their first matchup of the season with 277 yards and a touchdown, and the Vikings' defense has gotten worse while the Detroit offense has gotten better. Upgrade these receivers across the board.
Burks did not practice on Wednesday and is still considered in the league’s concussion protocol. Watch the injury report heading into this matchup and start Burks confidently if he is able to go. If Burks is out, Robert Woods becomes a sneaky flex option as the matchup against Campbell is too good to pass up. He was pressed into action due to injury and was absolutely picked apart last week. Campbell is allowing 0.85 fantasy points per coverage snap and was targeted 35% of the time. Tyson Campbell, on the other side, has played far better but there was no hiding the weakness at left corner last week. Tennessee is hard to trust throwing the ball but watch the injury report and check in on Burks as the week progresses.
Detroit employed shadow coverage against Justin Jefferson back in Week 3, and Jeff Okudah limited the starting receiver to 3 catches for 14 yards. This ploy let Osborn and Adam Thielen run free for a combined 11 catches for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. Osborn broke free in the fourth quarter for a long game-winning touchdown against former teammate Mike Hughes. We could see a similar alignment this week and Osborn is in a great sleeper spot. Jefferson is too good to downgrade much, especially as Okudah has dealt with injuries and ineffective play since that Week 3 matchup. The Vikings and Lions matchup should be a high-scoring affair and almost all receivers on both teams can be upgraded this week. Detroit has allowed the third-most points to slot receivers and the 5th most overall to opposing receivers.
Davis Mills is expected back at quarterback this week, and Houston takes on their in-state rival Dallas. It has been a tough season overall, but at the end of the day, they have to throw the ball to someone. Dallas has been a top-five defense in almost every category, and the game script should call for a lot of throwing the ball. Brandin Cooks may have the most talent in this receiver group, but he also has the toughest matchup on the other side. Collins will take on a corner that is allowing 0.73 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 29% of the time. Joseph is the weak link in this secondary due to injuries and is the likeliest spot to be picked on. Look for Mills to target Collins early and often out of necessity.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs TB) vs Carlton Davis
There is a lot of risk in the San Francisco offense right now, with Brock Purdy starting at quarterback. However, these skill players are too good to downgrade too much. This week they face a tough test against the Tampa Bay defense, but Aiyuk has the best matchup against Davis on the outside. Davis is the weak spot in regard to fantasy football, as he is allowing 0.37 fantasy points per coverage snap and leads the team by far. Davis is also targeted a team-high 27% of the time. There will be points flowing through this offense regardless of who the quarterback is, and Aiyuk could be one of the better sources this week with his projected defensive matchup.
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