Roundtable: 2023 Bold Predictions

Photo: Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Sports

Welcome to Week 18 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. Topics are now split into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Bold 2023 Predictions (see below)
• Offseason Team Assessments
• Reminders for 2023
• Offseason Points of Interest

2023 Bold Predictions

Matt Waldman: Give me one bold call for next year. I want some specific production data and/or a fantasy tier linked to it.

Jordan McNamara: I think George Pickens is going to disappoint. Pickens was a hyped day-two draft pick for Pittsburgh and saw his role increase after Chase Claypool's trade, but he has struggled. Pickens has become a contested-catch player who, outside of the routes where he draws a contested target, draws a league-low percentage of targets on his routes. The Pittsburgh offense has Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth as clear primary options ahead of Pickens, so I'm uncertain the volume will increase as much as the fantasy community projects.

Sam Wagman: Jared Goff has a career statistical year for the Lions as they win the NFC North. Goff had the best season of his career since 2018 this season, with five games of three or more passing touchdowns to go along with his lowest interception rate since 2017.

That was without first-round pick Jameson Williams healthy for 80% of the season. Next year, he'll presumably return to helm an offense with DAndre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Williams, D.J. Chark, and one of the best offensive lines in football. That is a lot of weapons for head coach Dan Campbell and Goff to play with, and he could put up a whole lot more than the 6 QB1 fantasy weeks he mustered this season. The Lions will be fun to watch in 2023.

Drew Davenport: I can't seem to stop believing in the Denver Broncos. I don't think Russell Wilson suddenly forgot how to play football. But my call here is for Courtland Sutton, not Wilson. For some reason, the team watches him produce when he gets the chance yet doesn't use him properly.

I hope a new coaching staff can help with that. In 2021 he averaged almost 15 PPR points per game in his first seven games when he was seeing a strong target share. In 2022 the same thing happened. Over the first five games, Sutton had over 10 targets per game, and despite scoring just one touchdown (those have been at a premium this season), he averaged almost 13 PPR points per game.

In both seasons, his target share dropped off significantly later in the year. If the new staff can figure out how to fix this, it doesn't take a lot to project those usage numbers for a WR2 season from a guy who will be drafted as a WR4 next year.

Christian Williams: One of Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr will start at quarterback for the New York Jets and post a top-12 finish at the position, thus pushing Garrett Wilson inside the Top 12, as well. The Jets are the definition of "a quarterback away," and the roster is as prepared for multi-year playoff runs as any in the AFC.

Talented pass-catchers are everywhere on the roster, and Breece Hall's return at some point in 2023 will give them a significant boost. Garoppolo and Carr have each posted efficient seasons, with Garoppolo being the more natural fit for the Mike LaFleur offense.

The Jets' scoring upside would drastically increase with even replacement-level quarterback play, and Garrett Wilson is already showing his immense talent as a rookie. Considering the situation, the Jets schemed up points to an extraordinary level in 2022, and an upgrade at the quarterback position will be fantasy-lucrative.

Chad Parsons: DAndre Swift will be a top-half RB1 in fantasy next season. Swift had a weird year playing through injury, and Jamaal Williams had a banner year producing goal-line touchdowns. Williams is a free agent and heading toward 30 years old, plus Swift is firmly in his prime production window. Swift will be underrated in the offseason after a down year, but with elite receiving upside already observed and more touchdown upside in 2023.

Sean Settle: Deshaun Watson will return as a top-10 quarterback in the NFL in 2023. The Browns continue to show how all-in they are. Since returning from suspension, the Browns have reduced the role of Nick Chubb each week and have made Kareem Hunt all but expendable.

Chubb has topped 100 yards just once since Watson has returned and has not found the end zone. Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones have emerged due to increased workload, while David Njoku has dwindled. Watson is trying to push the ball down the field and is making plays with his legs.

Look for an offensive shift next season away from their run-heavy scheme. We could see more RPO going forward as the financial commitment to Watson means this will be his show for the foreseeable future.

Waldman:

If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:

• Offseason Team Assessments
• Reminders for 2023
• Offseason Points of Interest

Thanks, and good luck this week!