Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | JULY 5 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Ingram II | RB | NO | 179.3 | 23.0 |
| 2 | Parris Campbell | WR | IND | 178.0 | 11.1 |
| 3 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | FA | 206.4 | 9.6 |
| 4 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 187.9 | 8.7 |
| 5 | Mac Jones | QB | NE | 172.0 | 7.8 |
| 6 | Marlon Mack | RB | HOU | 175.8 | 7.6 |
| 7 | Gus Edwards | RB | BAL | 160.8 | 6.9 |
| 8 | Rashaad Penny | RB | SEA | 105.8 | 6.6 |
| 9 | Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | 157.1 | 6.5 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 184.8 | 5.7 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 06/27/2022-07/05/22***
Rob Gronkowski was the biggest ADP faller last week but this week he actually finds himself in the top three risers. There are some that still believe he will change his mind midseason and come out of retirement and spending a last-round pick makes some sense to them. In an 18-round draft, I am firmly out on Gronkowski and moving on to some more secure players even if it is only a last-round investment. The Alvin Kamara potential suspension that continues to linger is helping move Mark Ingram II way up the ADP charts as he now has an ADP of 179.3. I am not seeing it with Ingram at this point in his career and even if he is inserted into the lineup with Kamara out, I am unsure how long he will last and he won't be a good tournament play at all after Kamara does return from suspension. We see Parris Campbell on the list once again as his ADP is up almost a full round in the past week. Marlon Mack is another name that continues to show up in the risers section as people start to speculate that the starting running back job in Houston might be his.
The names that I agree with in the risers this week are Nico Collins, Mac Jones, Rashaad Penny, Jared Goff, and Gerald Everett. These are all players that I think have a much bigger role on their teams than their actually ADP is showing. Both Jones and Goff at quarterback are top 20 quarterbacks but are always available late in drafts and make for perfect pairings when you go with a top-end quarterback or also fit nicely with three quarterback builds. Collins has a shot at taking a big step this year in Houston and he cost you nothing late in drafts to take a chance on him. Penny is a running back that had his ADP drop massively for a couple of months and is finally starting to rise as we get a good report on health and opportunity. Everett is a middle-round tight end that is tied to Justin Herbert so it is hard to not take notice and have him in your draft pool.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
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