What to Watch for in the 2022 NFL Draft

Photo: Joe Nicholson, USA Today Sports

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The 2022 NFL Draft is upon us, and this one should be a doozy.

How much of a doozy? Well, the only player we are sure is the best at his position is "The Punt God" Matt Araiza. The man can kick a football and make it touch another football -- that's 80 yards away! That's almost amazing enough to make us care about punters.

Aside from Araiza, there is very little consensus anywhere in the draft.

First, here's what we know:

• Round 1 starts Thursday at 8:00 pm Eastern
• Round 2-3 start Friday at 7:00 pm Eastern
• Rounds 4-7 start Saturday at noon Eastern

Oh, and it's in Las Vegas.

Now, the unpredictability.

There is fluidity at the top as the Jaguars are said to be looking at four different players: edge rushers Aidan Hutchinson and Javon Walker along with offensive linemen Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu. To further add to the uncertainty, those four players are in no way guaranteed to be the first four players off the board.

There is intrigue around quarterback landing spots, where the first quarterback could go off the board to Detroit at 1.02. Or much later in Round 1 to Pittsburgh. And we aren't even sure which quarterback will go first.

There is good depth at wide receiver, but again, who goes first and where is far from certain.

And of course, there are trade rumors around established players. Last year, the possibility of an Aaron Rodgers trade almost overshadowed the draft. This year, the talk is about Darren Waller, Deebo Samuel, Baker Mayfield, and a handful of others being dealt away. Will those rumors blow over as the Rodgers talk did in 2021? We'll find out soon.

With so much to think about, we asked our staff what they are watching for this draft weekend? Here's what they said.

Ryan Weisse

At this point, I am itching to see where these running backs end up. Will we see a situation like 2020? Where a team trades up to get their guy and the whole fantasy world freaks out and starts drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire over Jonathan Taylor. Breece Hall is pretty much everyone's RB1 now, but will landing spot and draft capital let him slip in fantasy drafts?

Sigmund Bloom

When will the top quarterbacks go? As Dane Brugler (The Athletic) laid out on my show this week, many around the NFL believe Liberty's Malik Willis and Pitt's Kenny Pickett will go early, but when you ask which team will be willing to take them early, there isn't a clear answer. Will a team be willing to take Pickett or Willis in the top half of the first round (or even trade up for one of them!) out of quarterback desperation, or will the unknowns and flaws of the prospects make them fall in the second half of the first round? Fans of Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh should be most interested in this question.

James Brimacombe

To me, it is all about the top-end wide receivers in this draft class. It is fascinating seeing Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams and where they will end up after Thursday night. I think you could put any of those five players as the WR1 in fantasy rookie drafts but it all comes down to the landing spot and what offense they end up in.

Jeff Bell

Will national champion Georgia break the record of 14 players drafted in a single draft, set by previous champions Ohio St and LSU? With Travon Walker in the conversation for the number one overall pick, the Bulldogs have 11 players who should hear their names sometime in the first four rounds: the fantasy-relevant wide receiver George Pickens and running backs Zamir White and James Cook (Dalvin Cook's brother). Their standout defense should see defensive linemen Walker, Jordan Davis, and Devonte Wyatt off the board early. That leaves a trio of linebackers in Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Channing Tindall, and safety Lewis Cine. Offensive lineman Jamaree Salyer rounds out the group. “From the University of Georgia” will be heard early and often, and draftniks will be watching into day three to see if they can match the record.

Jeff Haseley

I am curious to see what Kansas City and Green Bay do with their two picks each in the first round. They both lost their top wide receiver in the offseason and a new era is slated to begin for both at the position. Will Green Bay take their first wide receiver in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002? Will both teams make a play to move up into the Top 8-12 to start a wide receiver run? How badly does each team want to move up to secure their franchise wide receiver?

Andy Hicks

It is always about the running backs. Quarterbacks and tight ends rarely have optimal value immediately. They need to learn their craft. Wide receivers, especially more recently can have an immediate impact. But out of the 10 receivers drafted in the first two rounds of the 2021 season, many did not. Thirteen receivers were drafted in the first two rounds the year before and saw similar results.

At running back, we usually get an instant impact, depending on where they land. Najee Harris and Javonte Williams, both drafted high, had excellent rookie seasons. Travis Etienne was injured early, but many desperate fantasy managers took the bait on Trey Sermon as the fourth running back drafted. His teammate, the 10th running back drafted in Elijah Mitchell, took over and excelled.

The 2020 class saw results from the first seven running backs drafted, but very little after that.

Until they are drafted, running backs are often the most wildly overrated commodity in mock drafts. NFL teams in the modern era often wait until the second or third round for their choice, which sees us in a very unpredictable area of the draft. Will the rookie running back land on a team with an already established starter? Will they land on a team with a pass-happy offense? Is the guy drafted in the third round good enough to start despite a relatively clear path to the starting job?

It’s a fascinating small piece of an exciting few days where optimism abounds, but for fantasy managers watching when, how many and where those running backs land finally puts the jigsaw together after free agency.

Jordan McNamara

I'm really interested to see how this dynasty rookie class turns out. There is a real possibility there are no quarterbacks or wide receivers drafted in the Top 10 of the draft and no running backs or tight ends drafted in the first round of the draft. Historically, that is a terrible outcome for a dynasty rookie class.

Dan Hindery

The biggest decision dynasty players will have to make this year is how to balance talent versus landing spot at wide receiver. Do you want a player who is drafted in the Top 10 overall but is catching passes from Marcus Mariota or a player who is drafted very late in the first round but catching passes from Aaron Rodgers?

We have five wide receivers with consensus first-round grades:

• Drake London
• Garrett Wilson
• Chris Olave
• Jameson Williams
• Treylon Burks

Those first four are going to go very early in the draft and Burks should not be far behind them. Most are likely to land on teams drafting in the Top 15 with shaky quarterback situations.

Then there is another tier of wide receivers with consensus second-round grades, at least a couple of whom should sneak into the late-first round of the draft:

• Jahan Dotson
• George Pickens
• Skyy Moore
• Christian Watson

Unless teams like Green Bay and Kansas City trade up, they are going to miss out on the Top 5 and be picking players from this second tier.

Finding out which of those wide receivers get the big situational bump and then trying to decide how much to value good situations is the storyline I find most fascinating heading into Thursday night.

Clayton Gray

Agreed, Dan. It's all about the wide receivers - both veteran and rookies-to-be.

First off, will Deebo Samuel be traded? It seemed impossible a month ago, but Samuel now maintains he will not play in San Francisco again. Of course, the 49ers seem adamant that they will not trade him away. We seemed to be in this spot a year ago with Aaron Rodgers, and things worked out fine. Hopefully, we get clarity on Samuel this weekend.

The top rookies also hold my interest. There doesn't seem to be any Justin Jeffersons or JaMarr Chases in this class, but the 2022 class has several receivers who could give solid production for a decade. Here are my ideal landing spots:

• Jameson Williams - New York Jets
• Drake London - Washington Commanders
• Garrett Wilson - New Orleans Saints
• Chris Olave - Green Bay Packers
• Treylon Burks - Kansas City Chiefs

To further drive home this year's theme of uncertainty, those five receivers might not even be the first five off the board.

Hutchinson Brown

It will be interesting to see how landing spots for these wide receivers will change their rookie draft rankings from right now to after the NFL Draft. Because I could see five different wide receivers at number one for me depending on their landing spot.

Clayton Gray

Before the combine, it wasn't out of the question to see Burks being mocked to Atlanta at the 1.08. After his slower-than-expected 40 time and rumors of being out of shape at the combine, it wouldn't be a shock to see him still go to the Falcons but at the 2.11 pick.

Jason Wood

Our attention has to be on the wide receiver outcomes. Receiver is the only skill position projected as above average in this class, and thus it's also likely the spot where we'll see the most impact in 2022 fantasy outcomes. As others have noted, will Green Bay and Kansas City keep their MVP-caliber quarterbacks happy with new weapons? While the receiver class is deep, many of the top options vary widely in their best and worst attributes, so ensuring that each lands in an offensive system best suited to their advantages will be crucial.

Ben Cummins

It’s a passing league and with star wide receivers now being paid at a premium, landing talented pass catchers on rookie deals has become extremely important. This just so happens to be a draft loaded with wide receiver talent so I’m excited to see all the landing spots, especially since we know dynasty and redraft value for rookie wide receivers can shift drastically based on draft capital and which quarterback/franchise they’re tied to for the foreseeable future. Mainly, I’m watching the Green Bay Packers with picks 22 and 28 in the first round. With Aaron Rodgers re-signed long-term but Davante Adams no longer on the team, I can’t possibly imagine the Packers leaving another first-round without drafting a receiver. And if they don’t move up, the premier wide receivers in this class will already likely be off the board, leaving the likes of Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, Skyy Moore, Christian Watson, etc to fall into the range where Green Bay will be selecting. Whoever gets drafted by the Packers, especially if they only take one pass catcher on day one, will almost assuredly see their value skyrocket. My guess: Jahan Dotson is selected since he’s a strong route runner to alleviate some of the loss of losing Davante Adams, arguably the best route runner in the entire league.

Zareh Kantzabedian

One thing I've kept asking myself this offseason is, "Are there enough teams for these running back prospects to make a significant and immediate fantasy impact in 2022?"

I would argue that at least 24 NFL teams have verifiable starting running backs at the top of their depth charts. Another seven teams have proven talent, to some degree, at the position and will most likely form a committee if a rookie is drafted to them. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans have the only backfield with an inviting market share of touches, and their offense is one of the least appealing in the league.

As much as we may be fans of the incoming running back class, it would be wise to temper expectations through the off-season and read between the lines as training camps progress. The contextual team environment of where each running back ends up matters. Every coach approaches rookie running backs differently. Footballguys will be keeping a close eye on each situation as it evolves.

Jason Wood

That's a great question Zareh.

That said, I think in today's NFL there are so few running backs who we can be sure will have massive roles regardless of what happens in the draft. I'd love for a few of the rookies to land in great systems where an injury is all they need to vault into weekly fantasy relevance.

Ryan Weisse

Great points, Zareh and Jason. An excellent example from last year is San Francisco. Nobody could've been too happy with Eli Mitchell landing there but a bad preseason for Trey Sermon and injuries to just about every other back made him a waiver wire darling. Just about any landing spot is one injury away from perfection if the back is talented enough.