The Best Values at Tight End

Photo: Bob DeChiara, USA Today Sports

To close out August, we are looking for value. Over the next four days, we'll go position-by-position.

Here are the positions we have already covered: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receiver | Tight Ends

First up is tight end, and the question is simple.

Name a tight end who you think will finish far higher than the consensus has them ranked. Why are you so high on them?

Here are the players who received multiple votes:

• Jake Ferguson
• Hunter Henry
• Dalton Kincaid
• Luke Musgrave

And here is all of the commentary.

Ben Cummins: My TE rankings are decently in line with the market, so I'm going to go down the board and say, Michael Mayer. Mayer is currently the TE29 according to Underdog best-ball ADP, yet he is my TE24 for redraft. This looks to be the year of the rookie tight end, and I'm certainly not leaving Mayer out. Notre Dame's all-time TE receptions leader, Mayer was incredibly productive in college, posting lines of 42-450-2 as a freshman, 71-840-7 as a sophomore, and 67-809-9 as a junior. Austin Hooper projects to limit Mayer's playing time early on, but Mayer will still be involved. I want him on my roster in case he flashes because the possible upside is higher than rostering other tight ends in this range, such as Tyler Conklin and Hunter Henry.

Jason Wood: Hunter Henry is the choice, as I have him ranked TE19, and his ADP is TE30, according to our consensus data. To be clear, the 19th-ranked tight end barely registers on the fantasy Richter scale in 12-team leagues, so this isn't an aggressive call. But I do think Mike Gesicki's arrival is much ado about nothing, and with Bill O'Brien taking over as the play-caller, the Patriots will approach league-average offensively. Mac Jones needs reliable targets, particularly in the red zone, and Henry fits the bill.

Matt Waldman: Dalton Kincaid. He's the second tight end on the Bills but with a receiver-like role. He's a mismatch for linebackers and safeties as a slot receiver, and he has the size and quickness to defeat cornerbacks on the perimeter. After the catch, Kincaid routinely makes the first man miss or breaks the first tackle.

After a stellar camp and preseason, I expect Kincaid to be at least the third-most productive option in the Bills' passing game. I won't be surprised if he's targeted more than Gabriel Davis by year's end and flirts with 1,000 yards.

Because Kincaid is a tight-end, the industry is too focused on the statistical history of first-year tight-end production. However, his role will be more like a receiver. This was the case for Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts, Keith Jackson, and Jeremy Shockey when they were rookies -- four of the top-six rookie producers at the position.

Adam Harstad: I don't think any late-round pick is ever likely to finish far higher than his consensus ranking, but Jake Ferguson (current consensus ADP of TE28) seems less unlikely than most. Per Footballguys' Data Dominator, Dallas ranks 10th in fantasy points from its TEs since 2020, and Dalton Schultz has finished 11th, 3rd, and 10th in those three years in PPR scoring. Ferguson will compete with rookie Luke Schoonmaker for Schultz's vacated role and it's possible that they split it, but rookies often struggle with the transition to the NFL and the role has demonstrated value if Ferguson is able to win it outright.

In terms of median outcomes, the current ranking is probably about right, but I think Ferguson's 75th-percentile outcome (meaning good, but not surprisingly so) is better than most of the other players in his range.

Dan Hindery: Luke Musgrave. I love the rookie tight end class and think it will be the most productive rookie tight end class in NFL history. While Dalton Kincaid is my favorite of the group, Musgrave is a slightly better value, given how late he is going. Musgrave has a good chance of quickly emerging as one of the top two targets in an offense that will start four pass catchers in their first or second season. Green Bay has been getting the incredibly athletic rookie involved creatively, even featuring him on designed runs. He has also been on the field for virtually every snap with the first-team offense in preseason.