Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 2

Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA Today Sports

Week 1 is the biggest reveal in fantasy football. Months of movement and speculation come to a head, and speculation changes to reaction. Weekly, the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement to monitor while answering a question you may face in your league.

How are you pivoting off the J.K. Dobbins injury move? Who are you targeting in the backfield? What are your long-range career projections for Dobbins now?

Christian Williams

The devastating Dobbins injury complicates the Ravens' backfield, though indications out of camp and the offensive coordinator's needs out of a back suggest Justice Hill is the pivot play. Hill played on 30% of snaps last week but was involved even with a healthy Dobbins. He was the first back to step in and get the goal line carry immediately following Dobbins' injury, and his pass-catching skill set is more suitable for the offense's aspirations than Gus Edwards'. Projecting any high-value production following knee issues and a torn Achilles is difficult for Dobbins. While I think he will return to the NFL at some point, it's unlikely that he will return to a form that garners enough volume to be fantasy-relevant.

Corey Spala

I am devastated for Dobbins. An Achilles may not mean the death sentence for running backs anymore. Cam Akers provides a recent example to apply to modern-day medicine and recovery. He returned to play in five months, yet over the last two years, his play has had ups and downs. Dobbins is a superior talent, yet we cannot ignore future explosiveness or burst concerns. With the roster Baltimore has, I would be targeting Gus Edwards. He and Justice Hill have opposite skill sets; there is the likelihood of a committee moving forward. I know Hill scored two touchdowns, but if I had to decide, I would zig when others zag and take my chances on Edwards.

I do not have any doubt Dobbins will be on a team for the 2024 season; he is due a contract. I am tempering expectations to return to a heavy workload running back. He will be turning 25 years old in December and be ready for the 2024 season. A team will give him a chance; hopefully, he can find a meaningful role.

Jay Stein

The list of running backs to make it back after a torn Achilles tendon is small, with recent examples that come to mind being Arian Foster (2015), D'Onta Foreman (2017), and Cam Akers (2021). Not to mention, it's unlikely the player returns to pre-injury form. His fair market value is about a late-round rookie pick. Dobbins is not a sell at this juncture; he's already lost too much value for that. It's best to hold him in an IR spot and sell next year on his first report of practicing. As for what to do with the Ravens backfield, it's not inspiring. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill (my priority) look to split the workload, and the team just elevated veteran Melvin Gordon from the practice squad to further muddy the waters. Also, look for camp standout, undrafted rookie running back Keaton Mitchell to make it back to the team at some point this season (eligible to return after week 4).

Matt Montgomery

J.K. Dobbins has shown us by no fault of his own that he cannot take the physical toll that the NFL requires players at his position. If you are a Dobbins manager, it is time to cut bait and move on. The roster spot is too valuable to keep hoping he remains healthy and achieves the "What if?" scenarios that have dominated the conversations surrounding him since he entered the league.

In the Ravens backfield, I am currently targeting Justice Hill, but I am hesitant to give an opinion on someone currently in the backfield because I believe they will either sign one of the bigger named backs still available (Kareem Hunt or Leonard Fournette) or trade for a running back (Johnathon Taylor?).

My long-range projections are that Dobbins is eventually moved on from by the Ravens and attempts to salvage his career with a second team. Until that happens, I would try to trade him or even drop him from my roster. If he gets to a second team, he is worth a look, but I am not confident that he can take the wear and tear that comes with being an NFL Running Back.

Quarterbacks Moving Up or Down

Jay Stein

Kenny Pickett - Pickett was a significant beneficiary of the off-season hype machine, so expectations were high, and Pickett and the Steelers didn't live up to them in Week 1. Pickett finished the day with two interceptions, a paltry 5.0 yards per attempt (ypa), and one of the lowest expected points added per play (epa/p) at -0.41. Adding insult to injury, Pickett lost his favorite target, Diontae Johnson, for a few weeks, and his tight end, Pat Freiermuth, is also banged up.

Jeff Bell

Geno Smith - For the first 12 games of the 2022 season, Smith was one of the best quarterbacks in football. A 108.7 quarterback rating, 72.7% completion, and 22-6 TD/ INT ratio. Most importantly, a 7-5 record. Since then, 64% completion, an 11-6 TD / INT ratio, and a 2-5 record. The clock has struck midnight. The Seahawks still have the weapons to make Smith fantasy relevant, but the window of flirting with QB1 status is over. The clock may be ticking on Drew Lock getting an opportunity and ending the lightning-in-a-bottle superflex dynasty managers have found.

Christian Williams

Baker Mayfield - While the sample size is small, and the three seasons prior suggest otherwise, Baker Mayfield was legitimately good last week. He was decisive, displayed a high football IQ, and looked like the gunslinger he once was. While he may never be a high-end fantasy performer, he seems more like a middle-tier starter than a high-end backup. He's our consensus QB32 and likely should move up a few spots, especially if he takes advantage of a poor Chicago defense and emerges as a top-12 quarterback through two weeks.

Corey Spala

Matthew Stafford - The age is not the reason for being ranked QB28; the health concerns were. We are heading into Week 2 and understand Stafford is healthy. He had an exceptional Week 1 and shut down any doubts for this season. He turned Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell into the next great wide receiving duo. Jokes aside, this Rams offense is itching to get back Cooper Kupp. Being 35 years old is nothing too scary for a quarterback in dynasty. He is signed through 2026. However, the Rams do have an out following the 2024 season. The goal is to win championships, and Stafford will bring you weekly points for the foreseeable future.

Matt Montgomery

Anthony Richardson - came into this season as a project player, and rightfully so. In Week 1, he showed us that he can be a very viable fantasy quarterback early and deserves to be in lineups. He is likely the front-runner for Rookie of the Year and should continue to improve as the season goes forward.

Brock Purdy- Purdy isn't the sexy choice, but he executes his offensive game plan effectively, and the stats have followed. Whether it is real football or fantasy, Purdy is here to stay on a high-powered offense loaded with talent, making him a productive fantasy quarterback regardless of matchup.