Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 24: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Atlanta | Baltimore | Carolina | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Houston | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Minnesota | New Orleans | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle | Tampa Bay | Tennessee

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The Buccaneers are perennially among the league's better defenses, or at least they were. The 2022 unit was not as strong as we are used to seeing from this team, but they were not bad. Tampa Bay was mediocre against the run in terms of yards allowed and yards per carry but surrendered just twelve rushing touchdowns. While the run defense was slightly below average, the pass defense was still pretty good, ranking sixth in yards per attempt, tenth in passing yards, and in the top half of the league in completion percentage. All that is nice window dressing. The stinger is that only the Chiefs allowed more touchdown passes than the Buccaneers 29. Even the big play numbers had two sides in 2022. The 20 turnovers they recorded were tied with five teams for 20^th, yet the 45 sacks were the seventh most.

The bigger story here is not in the numbers, or at least not those that come from the field. It is dollars and age. The Buccaneers were all in on trying to win championships while Tom Brady was there. They spent a lot of money to keep several quality veteran players around. It paid off with playoff success and a Super Bowl title, but now it's time to pay the piper.

The 2023 Buccaneers are stuck in salary cap purgatory. To the credit of the organization, they are not as deep in the hole as some teams have been when the bill was due. This defense still has talented players but is going to be a significantly younger unit without much proven depth.

Defensive Linemen

Gone are veterans William Gholston, Akiem Hicks, Carl Nassib, and Rakeem Nunez-Roches, who were either starters or regular contributors along the defensive line. The good news for Buccaneers fans is that the organization was not unprepared. In each of the last three seasons, Tampa Bay has used their first draft pick on the defensive front. It started with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka in 2021, then Logan Hall in 2022, and then Calijah Kancey at 19 overall this spring. Add those guys together with 2018 first-rounder Vita Vea and Shaquil Barrett, who will be back from injury, and this part of the defense should be stout. There is even quality depth in Anthony Nelson on the edge and veterans Greg Gaines and Daedrin Senat at the tackle positions.

When it comes to IDP production, the Buccaneers may not be the place to look for defensive line help. The tackle and edge positions accounted for 29 of the team's 45 sacks in 2022, which is not terrible. On the other hand, having been at this game for over 30 years, I don't remember ever seeing a team put up more than 40 sacks with a nose tackle as its best pass rusher.

The Buccaneers had 14 players with marks in the sack column last year. Vita Vea led the charge with six and a half. At six foot four and 347 pounds, Vea is a space-eating nose tackle and a nearly immovable object at the center of the run defense. His bull rush can collapse the pocket on passing downs, and he has enough quickness, power, and athleticism to make plays despite being double-teamed on virtually every snap.

For all the impact he makes on the field., Vea's statistical production is lacking. His best numbers came in 2021 at 22-10-4.5 with a fumble recovery and 3 batted passes. While last year's six-and-a-half sacks are a career-best, Vea managed a mere 16 tackles and 13 assists to go with them. Granted, he missed four games over the second half of last year, but Vea has not produced more than 22 solo stops or 16 assists in any of his five seasons as a pro. He might be roster worth as depth in leagues starting two tackles but probably has a ceiling just outside the top 24 at the position.

Logan Hall had a somewhat disappointing rookie season, totaling 7-5-2 on 423 snaps as the third man in the five-technique tackle rotation. When they made him the first pick of round two last year, the organization knew he needed some work in the weight room before he would be ready to start. Hall has put in that work. When he was drafted, Hall checked in at a long 6-foot-6 but a trim 260 pounds. He now weighs in at 283 and should be better prepared for three-down duty. How that translates to the stat sheet remains to be seen.

Hall's college numbers were not flashy. He started 19 games over two seasons, totaling 70 combined stops and 7 sacks. He has the skill set and work ethic to become highly successful, but we have to keep in mind that he turned 23 in April and is just entering his physical prime. Hall may never be a 300-pounder, but getting into the 285 range should not mean sacrificing other important traits. There are no grand expectations for his IDP value this season, but Hall should show considerable improvement with the potential to become an IDP factor in tackle-required formats.

In a perfect world, the coaching staff might elect to follow the same plan with this year's first-round rookie. With so many veterans gone, that might not be an option. Like Hall, Calijah Kancey enters the league a bit undersized for the role of three-down tackle and with lingering concerns about his ability to hold up against the run. At six foot one and 281 pounds, Kancey's low center of gravity helps him win the leverage battle, while quickness and determination make him a challenge for pass blockers, especially in one-on-one situations.

I see Kancey as the best IDP target among this year's rookie interior linemen. He was productive at Pitt, with 64 combined tackles and 14.5 sacks over his 23 starts for the Panthers, and is a one-gap penetrator in a defensive scheme that fits his skill set. It was interesting to see NFL draft analyst Lance Zierlein's comparison to the great John Randle. I wouldn't go that far just yet, but there are similarities in their play style.

Greg Gaines, Deadrin Senat, and Patrick O'Connor fill out the rest of the depth chart for the interior line positions. They are all serviceable players that can hold down the fort if called upon, but there is no future starter among them.

With Shaquil Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka as the starting edge defenders heading into last season, the organization has to be disappointed that third-wheel Anthony Nelson led the position with five and a half sacks. Barrett has somewhat of an excuse, having missed nine games with a torn Achilles, but he was headed for a down year even before the injury. Barrett exploded for 19 sacks in his first year with the team (2019). He came crashing back to earth in 2020 and 2021, with nine and eight, respectively. Through eight games in 2022, Barrett had three sacks, with two of those in one early game versus the Saints. The 19-sack season remains a huge outlier for a player that has 34 over the other seven years of his career combined. Reasonable expectations for 2022 are more like 40-14-8, and that is if he is fully recovered from the injury, which is not a given.

Like every first-round pick in history, Tryon-Shoyinka came with high expectations. His rookie season went about as expected. He was the third man in the edge rotation, sharing time with Jason Pierre-Paul. The rookie got plenty of playing time in that role, seeing action on 587 plays and posting respectable numbers for the situation at 21-8-4. In the normal progression of things, his numbers should have improved substantially in year two. Unfortunately, the only higher number was his snap count.

Tryon-Shoyinka led the team's edge defenders with 884 snaps in 2022, almost 200 more than Anthony Nelson. Yet the stat sheet looked virtually the same as his rookie year, at 23-18-4. For a lot of young players, year three is when it all comes together. That could be the case with Tryon-Shoyinka, but his lack of improvement in year two leaves a bitter taste of pessimism.

Anthony Nelson solidified his role as the third man and top backup at the edge positions. His upside is somewhat limited, but the organization knows he can be depended on as both a rotational guy to give the starters a breather and a serviceable starter if needed. At 26-20-5 with 3 forced fumbles and a recovery on 693 plays in 2022, Nelson showed the potential to be a decent addition to IDP rosters as well. Over the final seven games, he totaled 20-10-3.5 with four double-digit outings. If Barrett is not healthy and he or Tryon-Shoyinka misses time, Nelson might make a decent in-season pickup.

With much of their veteran depth sent packing, the Buccaneers re-stocked the depth chart with young, inexpensive players. Yaya Diaby should see the field some as a rookie. The team's third-round pick had 37 combined stops and 9 sacks as a senior at Louisville. If he pans out, Diaby could become the heir to one of the starting jobs. Barrett turns 31 in September and is signed through the 2024 season. There is no guarantee that Tryon-Shoyinka is going to step up, and Diaby wasn't drafted to be a career backup.

• Edge Shaquil Barrett – Injury risk coming off Achille's surgery
• Edge Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Possible breakout player
• Edge Anthony Nelson – Steady contributor if one of the starters is lost
• Edge Cam Gill – No impact
• Edge Yaya Diaby – Dynasty deep sleeper
• Edge Jose Ramirez – Developmental rookie
• DT Calijah Kancey – Best IDP prospect at the tackle position in this year's class
• DT Logan Hall – Watchlist worthy
• DT Vita Vea – DT3 with marginal upside
• DT Patrick O'Connor – No impact
• DT Deadrin Senat – No impact
• DT Greg Gaines – No impact