Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 28: Buffalo Bills

Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Atlanta | Baltimore | Buffalo | Carolina | Chicago | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Detroit | Green Bay | Houston | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Miami | Minnesota | New England | New Orleans | NY Jets | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle | Tampa Bay | Tennessee

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The Bills have played great defense over the last two years. In 2022 they were ninth against the pass and fourth versus the run in yards allowed. They tied for the fourth most turnovers with 27, totaled 40 sacks, and gave up the second-fewest points in the league. It was the kind of season that is hard to improve on even when all the major components are back. Buffalo’s challenge is that much greater with the loss of middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.

The team made some good moves in free agency, adding solid veteran depth at key positions without breaking the bank, but none of those additions were middle linebackers. The only help at that position was in round three of the draft when the Bills picked Dorian Williams. Buffalo’s defensive front and their secondary are not hard to diagnose. The muddle in the middle at linebacker is possibly the most IDP-relevant camp battle of the summer.

Defensive Linemen

The defensive line accounted for 37 of the team’s 40 sacks last year. Normally a statement like that is followed by comments about at least one player with big numbers and great IDP value. That’s not so much the case here. Buffalo had no lineman with more than 27 solo tackles or 38 combined, while Von Miller and Greg Rosseau tied for the team lead in sacks with eight.

There are several things to consider when looking at the Bills’ defensive line. This is a very deep and talented group. Rosseau and Miller are an excellent duo at the defensive end spots. A.J. Epenesa, Shaq Lawson, and Carlos Bashan had twelve sacks between them and are a solid trio of backups, but the addition of Leonard Floyd gives the team a third starter to rotate in. That could prove vital, considering Miller is 34, has missed games in every season since 2018, and is currently a candidate to open 2023 on the PUP as he recovers from the knee injury that ended his 2022 season in week twelve.

The second thing to consider is how the team rotates its defensive ends. Buffalo had five players see action at the position last year. All of them played between 439 and 553 snaps. That can be a bit deceiving in that Miller was on pace for almost 700 when he was lost, and Rosseau would have seen around 670 had he not missed three games.

Rosseau is the best IDP target of this group and is a high-upside prospect. Unfortunately, the lack of snaps keeps him from reaching his potential. He finished last season at 27-10-8 with a forced fumble and 4 batted passes. Those are good numbers for a guy that only played 553 snaps. If we look at his average of about 8.7 points per game, Rosseau ranked 26^th at the position. He averaged about 61% of the playing time when active. Give Rosseau another 15 or so snaps per game, and he is a good second starter. Unless something changes, however, Rosseau will continue to be a marginal DL2 or quality depth with upside.

Ed Olivers has been a mainstay in Buffalo’s lineup since joining the team as a first-round pick in 2019. He has been a steady contributor both on the field and on the stat sheet. As the 3-technique tackle, Oliver averaged 26-15-4, a turnover, and 3 batted passes over his first three seasons. While those are not big numbers, they were enough to make him roster-worthy as a low DT2 or solid DT3. He ranked 21^st among tackles in 2021.

Oliver’s overall numbers dipped in 2022 after a week-one ankle injury set him back. He missed several games and was not a full go until after the team’s bye in week eight. If we look at the eight games Oliver was healthy for, he was on pace to go 38-29-5, which would have been his best season as a pro by far. At age 25, he is just entering the prime of his career, and considering how his numbers have steadily improved each year, 55-60 combined tackles and 4-5 sacks is not an unreasonable expectation. I like him as a player that can be drafted in the low DT3 range and probably played as a second starter.

DaQuan Jones rounds out the starting lineup at nose tackle. He is a quality veteran player and an anchor in the middle for the run defense. Jones does a lot of the dirty work that helps make this unit strong, but much of his contribution goes unrewarded on the stat sheet.

Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle, and Poona Ford are all veterans with starting experience. They should all see rotational time and would be more than capable if called upon. Phillips blew up for nine sacks as a member of the Bills in 2019, so there is some potential if Oliver is injured.

• DE Von Miller – PUP candidate that may not be 100% until late in the year
• DE Greg Rousseau – Priority DL3 with a much higher ceiling if they let him play more
• DE Leonard Floyd – High ceiling DL2 if Miller is not ready
• DE Carlos Basham Jr – No impact expected
• DE Shaq Lawson – No impact
• DE A.J. Epenesa – Injury sleeper
• DT Ed Oliver – Target as priority DT3 with high DT2 potential
• DT DaQuan Jones – Marginal value
• DT Jordan Phillips – Injury sleeper
• DT Tim Settle – No impact
• DT Poona Ford – No impact

Linebackers

Buffalo’s linebacker situation has been a topic of discussion from the moment Tremaine Edmunds signed with the Bears. There may be no training camp battle this summer that is more wide open or has more fantasy implications than this one. Even the coaching staff has no idea what this group will look like in September. They plan to look at several options and combinations during camp and the preseason.

As we sit here in late July, here is a combination of what we know and an educated guess as to what I think it means. The Bills were in a nickel base defense on 92% of their snaps in 2022, and they had two linebackers on the field for every one of them, plus most of the other eight percent. That led to some good IDP value, placing two linebackers in the top 25 and one in the top 10.

Matt Milano was one of those starters last year and will be one of them again in 2023. He has been with Buffalo his entire six years as a pro and has been the starter on the week side for the last five. There is a lot of speculation that he will move to the middle and take over leadership of the defense. While that is a distinct possibility, it is far from a sure thing. At six foot and 223 pounds, Milano is undersized for a middle backer. That might not matter so much in some schemes, but this one was built around Edmunds at six foot five and 250.

Milano has put up decent numbers and has been a borderline third starter for most of his career. In 2022 he broke out with a mark of 71-27-1, 5 turnovers, 12 passes defended, and a score in fourteen and a half games. Most of those numbers represent career highs, as did his 12.7 points per game and the rank of ninth among linebackers.

The weakside position is generally not accounted for in offensive blocking schemes. Milano does his best work when he’s able to flow and pursue through traffic. His game is built more on quick reaction and range than physicality. He is a dependable tackler, is good in coverage, and plays smart football. It would not be a surprise to see him get the green dot and take over the leadership role and play-calling duties, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a move to the middle.

Tyrel Dodson made the team as an undrafted free agent in 2020. He worked his way up to become the backup to Edmunds for the last two seasons. Dodson got the start in three of the four games Edmunds missed last year, but he did not make a good showing. So much so that the team signed A.J. Kline off the street in week eleven and started him over Dodson in week twelve. Dodson’s experience in the defense and time with the team will probably land him atop the depth chart at the start of camp. I don’t see him being there at the end of camp.

As a rookie third-round pick in 2022, Terrel Bernard earned the backup role on the weak side. He stepped in when Milano left the week five game and started when Milano missed week nine. Bernard is much like Milano in both stature and skill set, though he may be a bit more physical when it comes to putting a lick on the ball carrier. If he lands one of the starting spots, he should be IDP-friendly.

Rookie Dorian Williams was a team captain at Tulane and was uber-productive as a senior last year. In fourteen games for the Green Wave, he totaled 81-51-5 with 2 picks, 2 forced fumbles, and seven passes defended. The numbers are impressive, but the scouting reports that come with them are not going to make anyone think middle linebacker. They say things like "looks and moves like a big box safety", "lacking size and strength to take on blockers", and "needs to get better at getting off blocks at the point of attack". At six foot one and 228 pounds, both his stature and skill set are similar to those of Milano and Bernard.

A.J. Klein and last year’s seventh-round pick Baylon Specter could also be in the mix. Klein is the team’s biggest linebacker at six one and 240 and has been a starter in the league. In fact, the Panthers, Saints, and Bills have all given him that opportunity. They all gave him a look as a three-down middle linebacker as well, and they all three gave up on the experiment rather quickly. Over ten seasons in the league, Klein had shown us rather definitively that he is, at best, a two-down player and is better suited to play on the strong side.

In the end, I believe the coaching staff will elect to alter their scheme a bit and incorporate the strengths of two smaller, faster, better coverage guys at their linebacker positions. The worst-case scenario would be playing Klein on early downs with one of the others coming on in passing situations. Based on everything laid out here, I’m gambling that Bernard is the guy to grab as a late-round sleeper.

• WLB Matt Milano – Solid LB2 with some upside
• MLB Terrel Bernard – One of my favorite deep sleepers
• SLB A.J. Klein – Marginal value at best
• MLB Dorian Williams – Sleeper with a high ceiling if he wins the job
• MLB Tyrel Dodson – No grand expectations

Defensive Backs

Nickel corner Taron Johnson was the only Buffalo defensive back to play in every game last season. One thing we have learned from guys like L’Jarius Sneed and Jalen Ramsey is that slot corner can be one of the most statistically productive positions in the secondary if that player stays on the field all the time. Johnson played 1114 snaps in 2022. It was not 100% of the plays, but it was close enough. Johnson’s 68 solo stops were fourth most among corners and helped him to a top-twelve rank at the position. If the Bills continue to rely on nickel as their base defense on 90+ percent of the plays again next year, Johnson will be in for another productive year.

Tre’Davious White will be a big addition to this unit in 2023. He is the team’s undisputed number-one corner but missed most of last season while recovering from ACL surgery. When he did get on the field late in the campaign, he was not the player we were used to seeing. Outside of his rookie season in 2017, White has never been more than a marginal option for IDP managers. He can be counted on for a strong big-play contribution but hasn’t reached 60 combined tackles since that first year.

The Bills took Kaiir Elam with their first-round pick last spring. It didn’t take him long to get on the field, but staying there, on the other hand, was a problem. He played well at times but inconsistency eventually led to his benching in favor of veteran Xavier Rhodes. Elam got back on the field eventually but was never able to re-capture the starting spot. With Dane Jackson back from injury and the addition of Cameron Dantzler in free agency, Elam is not guaranteed a starting spot or even a significant role. With the situation up in the air, we’ll have to see if someone steps up.

The highest IDP value in Buffalo’s secondary lies with safety Jordan Poyer. His numbers were way down in 2022 because he missed 4 games with sore ribs and a sprained elbow, and had another one canceled. Not to mention the times he played through those injuries at less than 100%. Even with the handicap, Poyer’s average of almost ten points per game was enough to make him a serviceable third starter.

When it is time to draft for 2023, forget about Poyer’s 2022 and look at the five previous years for a better idea of what to expect. He earned a starting job in 2017. That year he came from nowhere to finish third among defensive backs. That was just the beginning. He followed it up by finishing seventh, fifth, third, and seventh over the next four seasons.

Poyer had 94 solo tackles in 2020, but that remains an outlier. He can be counted on for 65-70 and around 30 assists. It’s his prowess as a playmaker that makes all the difference. Poyer has at least four takeaways and six total splash plays in every season since 2017.

Micah Hyde played two games last year before suffering a season-ending neck injury. He is expected to be ready, but neck injuries can be hard to come back from. That undoubtedly had a lot to do with the signing of Taylor Rapp. Rapp is a more than capable veteran with plenty of starting experience and the versatility to play either position. He is an excellent insurance policy and could earn a role even if both starters are healthy.

As for Hyde, he and Poyer form an excellent tandem. But Hyde usually covers the deep/free safety role, so his production has been marginal over the last several years. He accounted for eight turnovers in 2021, but three or four is his norm. He has no more than 53 solo tackles in a season since 2017.

Damar Hamlin played well last year as the replacement for Hyde. He has been cleared to resume playing but is not expected to see the field much unless there is an injury.

• SS Jordan Poyer – Bargain-priced DB1
• FS Micah Hyde – Marginal value
• FS Taylor Rapp – Injury sleeper
• SS Damar Hamlin – Deep/injury sleeper
• CB Tre'Davious White – Marginal value
• CB Kaiir Elam – Watchlist
• CB Taron Johnson – Low-end CB1 or priority CB2
• CB Cameron Dantzler – Deep sleeper
• CB Dane Jackson – Marginal impact
• CB Siran Neal – No impact

That’s a wrap for the Bills. We hit the homestretch next, kicking off the NFC East.

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