Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
THE GOOD
Seahawks
Seattle has enjoyed two strong HLO weeks in a row, and this aligns with Kenneth Walker Jr.'s Week 11 injury to fuel Zach Charbonnet as a workhorse profile for Week 12 (and future weeks Walker misses). Charbonnet rarely left the field in Walker's absence, and Seattle's two straight top-10 weekly finishes of late point to a high floor with an RB1 ceiling for Charbonnet as the new starter.
Lions
Of 10 games this season, Detroit has seven weeks as a top-10 HLO offense. No team has more, even those without a bye week yet. David Montgomery being back softens the elite upside of Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs, but both can hit RB1 weeks simultaneously with their combination of receiving (Gibbs) and goal-line (Montgomery) prowess. If either misses time down the stretch, the other can win fantasy leagues. If the perfect storm of both missing time occurs, Craig Reynolds can do a Tim Hightower or Damien Williams impression and earn a fantasy championship for teams.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has enjoyed its three best HLO weeks over the past month, improving from a basement-dweller in season-long HLO to 24th overall. They were 30th over the opening month of the season as a point of comparison. Rachaad White has been one of the stronger workhorse profiles in terms of route and rushing market share utilization in recent weeks, and Chase Edmonds has solidified the RB2 role after Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Sean Tucker offered minimal confidence during Edmonds' absence.
Commanders
Brian Robinson's biggest deficiency was a low route share when Antonio Gibson was in the lineup. Week 11 saw Gibson out, and Robinson flourished with a 71% route share. The key is Chris Rodriguez has more of an early-down profile than Gibson as the now RB2. Washington's two best HLO weeks have been the most recent two games, and Robinson's ceiling has been unlocked any week Gibson misses going forward.
THE BAD
Colts
Potentially just an outlier stretch, but the Colts posted three below-average HLO weeks in a row before their Week 11 bye. Also, Gardner Minshew has eroded in recent stops in Philadelphia and now Indianapolis after a promising career start in Jacksonville. The good news is Jonathan Taylor has revived his foundation back market share, but the situation has not helped in recent weeks, and they are 25th in targets per game on the season.
THE UGLY
Raiders
Las Vegas has been in a downward spiral in recent HLO weeks. Aidan O'Connell under center has not helped Josh Jacobs, and the team is floundering to find quality scoring chances. After the opening two months ranked the Raiders at No.3 and No.15, respectively, the past three weeks have been alarming with their three worst HLO weeks of the entire season (no higher than 20th, and this is with teams on bye each week). Jacobs is getting workhorse utilization in terms of routes and rushing attempts, but targets and goal-line attempts are lacking for this struggling offense with no end in sight.
Cardinals
Arizona has been the most disappointing HLO team in the NFL this season. End stop. They are 28th in goal-line carries and 32nd in running back targets per game. James Conner can survive fantasy-wise due to his market share and talent, but no one else on the roster projects to survive if Conner is out. Emari Demercado was disappointing in his RB1 weeks thanks to a low HLO, and now Michael Carter's addition adds to the lack of clarity. Kyler Murray's return has not notably moved the needle upward for the team's HLO either in recent weeks.
COLLECT
FADE
- Keaontay Ingram, Emari Demercado
- Tank Bigsby
- Justice Hill
- Chase Edmonds
- Darrell Henderson Jr.
- Matt Breida
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